clskinsfan Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Congrats to you southern guys. Especially you Norfolk folk. You guys have earned a good storm. Enjoy the Snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Keep in mind, the reason SREF is decreasing totals for some is because the outliers are becoming fewer as the event draws near. The model is zeroing in where the heaviest accumulations will be now. below is the prob of above 6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, sarcean said: Not signed in old map. recent is 6-7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 RGEM looks very solid here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jenkins Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: It's pretty funny, the maps on the HRRR keep the snow just north of the john belk. You're not too far away. Going to be close, just about time to move into nowcasting mode. My confidence on RAP, HRRR, NAM, etc nailing the sleet line within ten miles is about zero. Good to keep in mind for those tossing out the big totals region-wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lookingnorth Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 22 minutes ago, SN_Lover said: 15z HRRR looks good for me! It looks bad for the Triangle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: RGEM looks very solid here. Can you post the qpf map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: RGEM looks very solid here. Maps, please!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 40 minutes ago, griteater said: Yep, calc I like this setup for your area. Should be a good looking radar once it gets cranking tonight. I don't see a lee side drying scenario for this one...we'll see. I still like a more conservative 3-6 down this way in CLT area as there could very well be some sleet mixing. Also, I still view this as more of a 'moderate' level storm in central NC. It's a good one, but we don't have a closing off and strengthening low at 700mb where the flow gets backed strongly to the NW (similar thoughts at 850mb). Here are the warmest RGEM panels with respect to Charlotte to Raleigh Warmest panel on RGEM 12z. High chance IMO of a good dose of sleet in Charlotte and Raleigh areas....better obviously to the NW of town Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 rgem much more mixing for southern wake county. airport right on the snow line. heavy rates if it can stay all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 20 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: If HRRR is right Atlanta may never switch over to all snow HRRR is not good in synoptic/winter situations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, franklin NCwx said: Can you post the qpf map? No total QPF map just yet, was looking at the REG PCPN TYPE page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, wxdawg10 said: Look at the date in the bottom..still an old version. Technical glitch. Here's a link to the very cool winter page from NWS Raleigh http://www.weather.gov/rah/winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 19 minutes ago, griteater said: That wind map shows well how the NE GA / W Upstate warm bubble forms That is a really cool map!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowinnc Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, lookingnorth said: It looks bad for the Triangle. Yep. It sure does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, Queencitywx said: No total QPF map just yet, was looking at the REG PCPN TYPE page. Gotcha. .. Its slow coming from tropical tidbits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QC_Halo Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 11 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: It's pretty funny, the maps on the HRRR keep the snow just north of the john belk. You're not too far away. I'm less than a mile from the JBF. Up 7th St. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sarcean Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 like my odds here in Greensboro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Whoever is right on that line of sleet/snow is going to really cash in. I was a bit worried about this, seems CLT can never avoid mixing issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, QC_Halo said: I'm less than a mile from the JBF. Up 7th St. I feel okay up here, you guys are really riding the lightning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boknows34 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 16 minutes ago, bingcrosbyb said: 9z SREF is in and it has decreased snowfall for Birmingham from 2.15" mean to 1.80" mean. Total QPF is still the same at 0.5" which means it is increasing the amount of ice. It shows all freezing rain/sleet up until 10pm Friday evening before changing to snow on the end. Matches up with earlier sounding showing a large warm layer between 2500 and 8000 feet at BMX. Bing- Even for the NE side of town??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, sarcean said: like my odds here in Greensboro Agree, I like Greensboro area for this one...looking better and better there Just now, burgertime said: Whoever is right on that line of sleet/snow is going to really cash in. I was a bit worried about this, seems CLT can never avoid mixing issues. I know, climo right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, griteater said: Agree, I like Greensboro area for this one...looking better and better there I know, climo right At some point though cold air has to win out once. This at least seems more like CLT has a chance vs a lot of times where it was obvious at the last minute the warm nose was going to win out. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 RDU is in the mix on the RGEM. I was hoping that the snow line would correct a little more SE on this hi-res runs this morning. The nam did somewhat, the RGEM went the other way for the Triangle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDeac Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 This seems scarily close to a Feb 2015 redux for the CLT metro. That under-performed badly for everyone, and the southern parts of the metro were left with a slushy/sleety inch or two. Very concerning to see the short term models increasing 850s during the storm, while the globals have been crashing temps for many runs in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
philconnors Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, Boknows34 said: Bing- Even for the NE side of town??? Couple of things. Not buying the ice solution. Goes against climo. Calera is BMX which is 45 mins south. I think N and NW/NE sections of BHM are going to be fine. We are on the NW side of the SLP and we have an arctic frontal boundary with 20-25:1 ratios over N. AL. How do we get ZR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 I've come to terms with my getting 2-3" of sleet, and I'm ok with that! I am really on razors edge!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 The sleet line on the RGEM sits literally over my house in NW Chapel Hill and just doesn't move for 9 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
broken024 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Sucks living 20 miles south of charlotte Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mclean02 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, griteater said: Agree, I like Greensboro area for this one...looking better and better there I know, climo right It looks like it but it seems like anytime Greensboro is in the right area we flip to sleet/Freezing Rain to drop to totals lol .... But i am looking forward to a change !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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