mackerel_sky Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, WXinCanton said: NAM I think I just got NAM'd! Is there a NAM snow map?? The NAM looks great, no Lookout warm bubble! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Well, damn. This looks like a few earlier GFS runs. FWIW the 12Z RPM has less than this, 2-4 across most of north GA from ATL north. Also, the cold air is really coming in, KPDK is down to 34/25. Hmmmmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, mackerel_sky said: I think I just got NAM'd! Is there a NAM snow map?? The NAM looks great, no Lookout warm bubble! Are we going to see thunderstorms while northern Greenville gets snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 The NAM thinks we're gonna hit 44 today. I could be wrong but I doubt it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 09z SREF plumes: GSO: ~7.5" RDU: ~6.5" CLT: ~5.75" GSP: ~5" ATL: ~2" Totals are up for RDU,CLT, etc. and a little down for GSO. Probably less amped outliers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BamaRude Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, packfan98 said: I am sitting just above the '0.9' south of Nashville. We are over an inch and still snowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 The NAM moved the 1" qpf totals NW to the Triad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathang16 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Yea if Nam verifies if gives 7 inches over my house in Cherokee County, GA. Probably will end up with like 2-4. When do you guys think the cold air will be coming into Georgia? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 NAM has KCLT now at 1.22 QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Around 1.25" QPF for CLT per the 12z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 6 minutes ago, packfan98 said: Man, that map you just posted has an incredible minimum between NW piedmont and the mountains. That leeside dryslot is totally worrying me now. This is my greatest fear right now: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 NAM QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Had 6-12 for Randolph County yesterday: Thought we'd see a tick back west with better qpf as slp would be tight to the coast like the ukmet has been saying for days. A textbook perfect track for this area is progged. Gonna bump the window up to 8 to 14. See Allan has 8-12. Some spot , most likely to the NE of Asheboro has the potential to squeze out another tenth maybe .2 of qpf so I think a 13 or 14 inch micro lollipop report is possible. Think 9-10 will be the lowest so the 8 gives wiggle room on low end. going off 10-1 ratios but I know we can get into 12-1 latter half of storm. Gonna study up on that latter today. Anyway have fun tracking, hope everyone gets suprised for the better for a change. Nice to have any kind of winter storm but even better when it has potential to be a SECHS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, calculus1 said: Man, that map you just posted has an incredible minimum between NW piedmont and the mountains. That leeside dryslot is totally worrying me now. This is my greatest fear right now: That storm was an almost entirely different setup than this one... It was a very strong bowling ball type ULL that moved just too far south for areas along the escarpment.. it rained most of the day ahead of the ULL also.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 I'll be living vicariously in your obs thread. I'm really stoked for you folks that get hit flush. I've said multiple times over the years that I root for you guys and I hope this one closes interstates and paralyzes neighborhoods for a little while. Some may think that's a nasty thing to root for but anyone who knows me...that's how I roll. And I know it's how many of you roll too. Even a fair # of those who deny it. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowinnc Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said: Yep, see that now! RAH is screwed now! Y'all remember the DC event he went to a few years back! Heck yeah we're screwed! He is the kiss of death. Maybe he will go to the Triad instead! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Good luck guys, love watching these Carolina Crawlers™. Hope you get shellacked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I'll be living vicariously in your obs thread. I'm really stoked for you folks that get hit flush. I've said multiple times over the years that I root for you guys and I hope this one closes interstates and paralyzes neighborhoods for a little while. Some may think that's a nasty thing to root for but anyone who knows me...that's how I roll. And I know it's how many of you roll too. Even a fair # of those who deny it. LOL Go Big or Go Home! Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I'll be living vicariously in your obs thread. I'm really stoked for you folks that get hit flush. I've said multiple times over the years that I root for you guys and I hope this one closes interstates and paralyzes neighborhoods for a little while. Some may think that's a nasty thing to root for but anyone who knows me...that's how I roll. And I know it's how many of you roll too. Even a fair # of those who deny it. LOL Thanks for dropping in Bob! Nailing down the final amounts and locales is a trial Lots and lots of winter left for you guys up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Well, my southern brothers and sisters, it's nowcasting time. Ever since I left the N.C. Piedmont, I've still vicariously tracked these events with y'all. I wish you nothing but the best luck on this event -- looks like a big win for lots of my AW friends. Bring it on home and post lots of pictures! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Congrats GSO and northern RDU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 RAP continues to highlight areas along and north of 85 with the heaviest snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 9 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: Had 6-12 for Randolph County yesterday: Thought we'd see a tick back west with better qpf as slp would be tight to the coast like the ukmet has been saying for days. A textbook perfect track for this area is progged. Gonna bump the window up to 8 to 14. See Allan has 8-12. Some spot , most likely to the NE of Asheboro has the potential to squeze out another tenth maybe .2 of qpf so I think a 13 or 14 inch micro lollipop report is possible. Think 9-10 will be the lowest so the 8 gives wiggle room on low end. going off 10-1 ratios but I know we can get into 12-1 latter half of storm. Gonna study up on that latter today. Anyway have fun tracking, hope everyone gets suprised for the better for a change. Nice to have any kind of winter storm but even better when it has potential to be a SECHS. Really good trends. I guess today is the day that you want to be in the jackpot zone on the models. Don't forget about that initial finger of precip predicted to come in around 2-3pm today. It will give someone another inch or two. It's usually the Triad proper that gets this, just to our north. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, calculus1 said: Man, that map you just posted has an incredible minimum between NW piedmont and the mountains. That leeside dryslot is totally worrying me now. This is my greatest fear right now: 2 minutes ago, wncsnow said: That storm was an almost entirely different setup than this one... It was a very strong bowling ball type ULL that moved just too far south for areas along the escarpment.. it rained most of the day ahead of the ULL also.. Yep, calc I like this setup for your area. Should be a good looking radar once it gets cranking tonight. I don't see a lee side drying scenario for this one...we'll see. I still like a more conservative 3-6 down this way in CLT area as there could very well be some sleet mixing. Also, I still view this as more of a 'moderate' level storm in central NC. It's a good one, but we don't have a closing off and strengthening low at 700mb where the flow gets backed strongly to the NW (similar thoughts at 850mb). Here are the warmest RGEM panels with respect to Charlotte to Raleigh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, CaryWx said: Thanks for dropping in Bob! Nailing down the final amounts and locales is a trial Lots and lots of winter left for you guys up there. That's my absolute favorite part of this weird hobby. Enjoy it man! Your obs thread better be loaded with pics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, wncsnow said: RAP continues to highlight areas along and north of 85 with the heaviest snow. That's not even through the entire storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, Wow said: That's not even through the entire storm I know but the snow will be almost over for NW SC and WNC by hour 21, still cranking further east though, here's a look at the simulated radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Wow and I's backyard. Snow by 0z, IP before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 HRRR is a big buzzkill -but it looks way too warm based on all other guidance. I have found that it is not good for synoptic/winter situations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jenkins Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: Wow and I's backyard. Snow by 0z, IP before. I'd feel much better up your way than living in CLT proper. Thinking the sleet line might park over my head for some time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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