MotoWeatherman Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 6 minutes ago, Cheeznado said: Well unless the 12Z suite comes in really colder, 1-4" (which has been my official call all along on FB) is good for ATL. More way up in far northern burbs. Too bad the GFS got my hopes up occasionally but this is actually (with a couple of notable exceptions) that way it usually plays out here. The key is the dynamic cooling at changeover and rates for just a few hours- could come down pretty heavt just before ending. Congrats the mountains and CLT-RDU-ORF. I may just head up to about Ball Ground a little later today to get in the butter zone. Trying due north up 400 in Dahlonega. Get a little elevation under your belt and hang out on the square eating Pizza. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 29 minutes ago, msuwx said: Always a concern. Hopefully the positive tilt orientation to this thing will fight that impact off. I will also say that I am issuing a 'radar hallucination freak-out watch' for this system. With the orientation of this thing and the way precip should blossom this evening, there will be screams of this missing people to the south by late today. 1 Would love to see the AFD for that one! I'll be watching the meltdown for the first time and not have to worry about meltingdown myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Hey Guys my final call for those interested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 5 minutes ago, RaleighWx said: Hey Guys my final call for those interested. Thanks Allan! Your maps are the ones I share most with people in these events - enjoy the weather. Great/exciting thread all around getting to track something like this that doesn't happen all too often in the southeast - shout out to everyone for posting helpful/interesting comments and mods who keep things running smoothly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Here is my final call map, hoping everyone can cash in on this one! Good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 hour ago, packfan98 said: From Matthew East: Compared to WRAL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, magpiemaniac said: Perhaps the mets at WRAL should looks at model estimates for areas outside the Triangle. They're prognosticating from their echo chamber. They need to shift that map to the northwest and increase their totals slightly. I'm still not sold on the whole NW shift thing yet. I still think Raleigh sees a lot more snow than WS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sakau2007 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 24 minutes ago, Jet Stream Rider said: I expect to see some mixing down east in North Carolina. I am a long way east (western edge of the coastal plain) but I wonder if the mixing will make it this far north. Will be interesting to watch and I'll report, if I can. Even if there is some mixing, and I think there could be, you will still get a big storm. I'd rather be on the snow/mixing borderline where you know QPFs won't be a problem than on the northern fringe where temps are fine but moisture could be severely limited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, CentralNC said: I'm still not sold on the whole NW shift thing yet. I still think Raleigh sees a lot more snow than WS I don't doubt that at all. But W-S will get more than 2"-4" and mixing will be less of an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Sucky JB as some have said, Says It's goona crank Raleigh on NE from there foot in lot of places. He likes the NAM packages. He's said for days that models would correct west and it appears they are doing that!! No? I'm not saying He's going to be right, but models seem to be falling in line with his thinking right now, that could change as we all very well know................ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 14 minutes ago, Hvward said: Here is my final call map, hoping everyone can cash in on this one! Good luck! This is a great map. Only one I've seen yet take the upslope areas into consideration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Can someone post one of those nice temp and dewpoint maps, so we can be assured the cold is filtering in? Thanks in advance! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 hrrr (at the far end of its range fwiw) looks good around 10pm tonight. snow line sinking s of rdu. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Looks like the wind is getting around the mountains. Should be interesting. http://hint.fm/wind/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 12z NAM precip shield further west. A hair colder east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 6 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: hrrr (at the far end of its range fwiw) looks good around 10pm tonight. snow line sinking s of rdu. Color me skeptical at that Lina S of GSP, but it would be hammering at my house!!! Looks great,but fear the sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 hour ago, msuwx said: Always a concern. Hopefully the positive tilt orientation to this thing will fight that impact off. I will also say that I am issuing a 'radar hallucination freak-out watch' for this system. With the orientation of this thing and the way precip should blossom this evening, there will be screams of this missing people to the south by late today. Great to see you and NWS agree that CLT is in for at least 6+! I'm definitely a member of the radar freakout committee. Radar always seems to underperform for these storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Nice discussion by Bastardi this morning - free http://www.weatherbell.com/#premium He has been saying for days this thing will be closer to the coast. We'll see if he is right or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vorticity Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 51 minutes ago, Cheeznado said: Well unless the 12Z suite comes in really colder, 1-4" (which has been my official call all along on FB) is good for ATL. More way up in far northern burbs. Too bad the GFS got my hopes up occasionally but this is actually (with a couple of notable exceptions) that way it usually plays out here. The key is the dynamic cooling at changeover and rates for just a few hours- could come down pretty heavy just before ending. Congrats the mountains and CLT-RDU-ORF. I may just head up to about Ball Ground a little later today to get in the butter zone. May I ask if you have a "pro FB site" or is it the personal one, since I don't know your ID lol, good job btw! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 EPIC run of the NAM inbound! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 This is a toughie folks when it comes to the Triangle and the northeast Piedmont. Some real differences between the latest NAM and last GFS. NAM has center of precip axis well into Virginia. What to believe... I am afraid our science and technology has given us all it can for the moment. A real challenge for you Mets out there. Suspect you have to use the ole trick-knee/gut-feel to parse out this last bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 nam is a bit colder for rdu, trends in our favor this morning on the 06z and 12z. should be a bit more qpf as snow this run rather that ip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Much better run for NE GA and NW SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 7 minutes ago, Wow said: 12z NAM precip shield further west. A hair colder east? SREF mean went down from 1.43 to 1.11 for CLT, fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mckinnonwg Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Can anyone tell where the LP center crossed...did it move off its most recent line? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, Queencitywx said: SREF mean went down from 1.43 to 1.11 for CLT, fwiw. Well I guess it's over for us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 12z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.