Brick Tamland Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, packbacker said: What did he say? Someone said he thought mixing would cut down on the snow totals for Raleigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 I know its outside its prime use but what did the 06z gfs ensemble show? Yesterdays 18Z ensemble showed nothing but big storms for most of NC and was wondering if it is still holding to its guns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, Brick Tamland said: Someone said he thought mixing would cut down on the snow totals for Raleigh. You are in a little better spot where you shouldn't mix. Should be close for me and Cold Rain though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 3 hours ago, Coach McGuirk said: Just got my Winter Storm Warning. 8-12 inches or bust. Looks like we might be making a run at a top 5 event. Would just have to break 12 for that to happen. AKQ is even making mention of blizzard conditions on Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bargainmusic Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 hour ago, mwp1023 said: Jim Cantore is in Raleigh for the storm. Could be a good sign. Weather Channel hired my brother to go out and film the storm this weekend. They are definitely expecting something interesting to go down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PGAWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Nice graphic: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said: Yep, see that now! RAH is screwed now! Y'all remember the DC event he went to a few years back! Same thing in 2000....he was watching flurries and we got crushed downeast......not expecting that this tme but if we get just a little colder than the models show my totals can go up a lot. I'm looking at 6-10 inches within 20 miles of me but i'm on that southern transition zone so the northern part of my county gets 10 while the southern end gets 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 11 minutes ago, shaggy said: I know its outside its prime use but what did the 06z gfs ensemble show? Yesterdays 18Z ensemble showed nothing but big storms for most of NC and was wondering if it is still holding to its guns Same. Actually a bit better for folks on the NW side. I posted a precip map on the last page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 It looks like it's the ARW part of the SREF that is crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Congrats down there. Looks like you guys are getting a great storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Will this thread be locked at some point today and we all go to the obs thread? It's a pain to have to jump back and forth. What do you all think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, packfan98 said: Will this thread be locked at some point today and we all go to the obs thread? It's a pain to have to jump back and forth. What do you all think? I have no problem with this. We are into the Now time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 It looks like it's the ARW part of the SREF that is crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Well, it at least looks like the clouds are in here. Hopefully, we won't blaze it up all day this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Its possible that my vicinity will be close to blizzard conditions when in closer proximity to the lp on Saturday. That will be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 5 hours ago, burgertime said: Any worry for you over getting convection robbed by the gulf coast? Hi-res NAM looks like it's firing a lot of thunderstorms. I know it's always like a 50/50 shot with that so probably pointless to even speculate but just curious. I think either way it's look pretty ****ing awesome with all the models now converging into a 3-6 event for most. Good stuff overnight! Always a concern. Hopefully the positive tilt orientation to this thing will fight that impact off. I will also say that I am issuing a 'radar hallucination freak-out watch' for this system. With the orientation of this thing and the way precip should blossom this evening, there will be screams of this missing people to the south by late today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Snow/Sleet Totals Effective 12pm Friday to 12am Sunday (Final Call) Atlanta,GA = 2-4 Athens,GA = 1-3 Asheville,NC = 2-4 Greenville,SC = 2-4 Hickory,NC = 4-6 Charlotte,NC = 4-8 Davidson,NC = 4-8 Columbia,SC = Trace-1 Greensboro,NC = 6-10 Raleigh,NC = 6-10 Greenville NC = 4-6 Roanoke Rapids,NC = 8-12 Richmond,VA = 4-8 DC = 1-3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcwinter23 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Thanks for the great discussions here! I have learned so much here. Just in from a run... 38 and full cloud cover in North Raleigh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 33 minutes ago, packbacker said: You are in a little better spot where you shouldn't mix. Should be close for me and Cold Rain though. Where are you in Apex? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottk Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Here in Florence, SC it appears we're going to get close to 1" of rain before the cold air gets here smhSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Best of luck to everyone ... and light a candle for our hopes in the Sandhills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 3 hours ago, ncskywarn said: Still mixing but a big change an improvement between 00Z and 06Z NAM runs Where can I access this information for different models and locations? I've seen these graphs posted many times in this forum before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 hour ago, oconeexman said: Thanks for posting ths. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Always a concern. Hopefully the positive tilt orientation to this thing will fight that impact off. I will also say that I am issuing a 'radar hallucination freak-out watch' for this system. With the orientation of this thing and the way precip should blossom this evening, there will be screams of this missing people to the south by late today.Lol. Thanks for statement. Will we reference it Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 31 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: It looks like it's the ARW part of the SREF that is crazy. For Hickory, I removed the top four amounts on the SREF plumes (all greater than 12"), and the mean was still just shy of 8". The minimum value is just over 2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PortsmouthWeather Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 42 minutes ago, SeVa said: Looks like we might be making a run at a top 5 event. Would just have to break 12 for that to happen. AKQ is even making mention of blizzard conditions on Saturday Just wanted to update with new graphic. I think we get at least 10 area wide!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Well unless the 12Z suite comes in really colder, 1-4" (which has been my official call all along on FB) is good for ATL. More way up in far northern burbs. Too bad the GFS got my hopes up occasionally but this is actually (with a couple of notable exceptions) that way it usually plays out here. The key is the dynamic cooling at changeover and rates for just a few hours- could come down pretty heavy just before ending. Congrats the mountains and CLT-RDU-ORF. I may just head up to about Ball Ground a little later today to get in the butter zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 I expect to see some mixing down east in North Carolina. I am a long way east (western edge of the coastal plain) but I wonder if the mixing will make it this far north. Will be interesting to watch and I'll report, if I can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 25 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: Snow/Sleet Totals Effective 12pm Friday to 12am Sunday (Final Call) Atlanta,GA = 2-4 Athens,GA = 1-3 Asheville,NC = 2-4 Greenville,SC = 2-4 Hickory,NC = 4-6 Charlotte,NC = 4-8 Davidson,NC = 4-8 Columbia,SC = Trace-1 Greensboro,NC = 6-10 Raleigh,NC = 6-10 Greenville NC = 4-6 Roanoke Rapids,NC = 8-12 Richmond,VA = 4-8 DC = 1-3 Good calls. I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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