Winter Storm 1/6 - 1/8, 2017

[burgertime]

11 minutes ago, griteater said:

In their 2AM update, WPC likes a blend of the 00z GFS and Euro with slightly below avg confidence.  Says that the UKMet is to amplified, and NAM is to close to the NE Coast (i.e. too amplified)...we shall see

PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH TRACKING TO THE EAST COAST SATURDAY

PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS/00Z ECMWF

CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE

THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY CROSSING THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL CONTINUE MOVING TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AS THE BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA BREAKS DOWN FURTHER AND A LARGE UPPER LOW DEVELOPS. THIS WILL QUICKLY PROGRESS TO THE EAST COAST BY SATURDAY AND INDUCE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER FLORIDA AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TO THE MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION THAT THE ECMWF WAS ADVERTISING YESTERDAY, WITH GOOD OVERALL MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE EXCEPTIONS ARE THE UKMET, WHICH BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE TROUGH AFTER 36 HOURS, AND THE NAM WHICH IS CLOSEST TO THE NORTHEAST COAST WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW.

 

 

Any worry for you over getting convection robbed by the gulf coast? Hi-res NAM looks like it's firing a lot of thunderstorms. I know it's always like a 50/50 shot with that so probably pointless to even speculate but just curious. I think either way it's look pretty ****ing awesome with all the models now converging into a 3-6 event for most. Good stuff overnight! 

[SnowGoose69]

1 hour ago, Snowless in Carrollton said:

You don't think 1-3 inches is much of anything ? This is Georgia and we take what we can get. 

The main difference on the Euro for NRN GA near ATL is the 0.02-0.08 total liquid precip 06-12z.  That is less than virtually every other model other than the UKMET.  The RGEM/GFS both are wetter in that window.  If the Euro even had .15 it likely has 4 inches or so for ATL.  Looks like it has them sleet by 01-02z

[Touchet]

The euro looks like a typical snow, rain, melt, snow scenario around here. I want the RGEM to verify. Mix precipitation all day then BAAM, a good snow. 

[ncskywarn]

RDU SREF snow total mean jumped from under 5  to 8 1/2 inches on the 03Z update does that does that mean that the 06Z NAM run may not come in as amplified as the 00Z run was?

 

[burgertime]

3 minutes ago, ncskywarn said:

RDU SREF snow total jumped from under 5  to 8 1/2 inches on the 03Z update does that does that mean that the 06Z NAM run may not come in as amplified as the 00Z run was?

 

 

 

SREF is just a bunch of hi-res models mixed together I believe so it shouldn't have much impact on the 6z NAM but someone more skilled can correct me if I'm wrong on that. 

[WxBlue]

6 minutes ago, ncskywarn said:

RDU SREF snow total mean jumped from under 5  to 8 1/2 inches on the 03Z update does that does that mean that the 06Z NAM run may not come in as amplified as the 00Z run was?

 

 

SREF jumped in WNC as well. AVL is up to 9". HKY up to 9".  Interesting.

[burgertime]

What I really like about this storm is that it's not an overamped bomb which always has big risk of failing due to relying on a lot of extremes. Nore is it an ULL relying on a lot of dynamics. This is just a good old-fashioned moisture coming from the gulf over cold air type of event. Gonna be tough to screw the pooch on this one. 

[burgertime]

RAP pretty much starts out as all snow and has a few inches on the ground just east of CLT before the storm even really gets cranking. It's getting a little out of it's range, but I found the RAP tends to do pretty well on P-type during storms.

[ncskywarn]

10 minutes ago, burgertime said:

What I really like about this storm is that it's not an overamped bomb which always has big risk of failing due to relying on a lot of extremes. Nore is it an ULL relying on a lot of dynamics. This is just a good old-fashioned moisture coming from the gulf over cold air type of event. Gonna be tough to screw the pooch on this one. 

00Z NAM amped the heck out of it practically turned it into a Miller A or very close to it.

[Coach McGuirk]

00z Euro.

[burgertime]

Just now, ncskywarn said:

00Z NAM amped the heck out of it  practically turned practically turned it into a Miller A or very close to it.

Yea, but it also hasn't been spitting out totals of 20 inches. Seen those way too many times. 

[FallsLake]

For mby the 6z NAM would be a beast; nearly a foot. But just to my south and east(like down the street) there would be mixing issues. Somebody said earlier to get the big amounts you have to be able to smell the rain (or sleet in the case).

[Coach McGuirk]

8-12 inches forecasted.  Sweet!

[ncskywarn]

7 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

For mby the 6z NAM would be a beast; nearly a foot. But just to my south and east(like down the street) there would be mixing issues. Somebody said earlier to get the big amounts you have to be able to smell the rain (or sleet in the case).

Have have not seen the models but somebody in another thread said 6Z was a little bit east of the 00Z.

[Coach McGuirk]

The 06 NAM is lining up with all the other models.  

[FallsLake]

2 minutes ago, ncskywarn said:

Have have not seen the models but somebody in another thread said 6Z was a little bit east of the 00Z.

It still brings mixing into Raleigh for a few hours but then changes back to snow which would be heavy.

[arlwx]

Just posted now for NC/southeastern VA.

 

Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 345 AM EST FRI JAN 6 2017 ...WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA...THE LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY... NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ084-086>090-092-093-095>098-523>525- 062100- /O.UPG.KAKQ.WS.A.0001.170107T0300Z-170108T0300Z/ /O.NEW.KAKQ.WS.W.0001.170107T0300Z-170108T0300Z/ NORTHAMPTON-HERTFORD-GATES-PASQUOTANK-CAMDEN-WESTERN CURRITUCK- BERTIE-CHOWAN-PERQUIMANS-EASTERN CURRITUCK-GLOUCESTER-MATHEWS- GREENSVILLE-SUSSEX-SURRY-JAMES CITY-SOUTHAMPTON-ISLE OF WIGHT- NORFOLK/PORTSMOUTH-SUFFOLK-CHESAPEAKE-VIRGINIA BEACH-YORK- NEWPORT NEWS-HAMPTON/POQUOSON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MARGARETTSVILLE...AHOSKIE... ELIZABETH CITY...EDENTON...COROLLA...EMPORIA...WAKEFIELD... BARHAM...GWALTNEY CORNER...BACONS CASTLE...CHIPPOKES STATE PARK... HOG ISLAND GAME RESERVE...POOLESVILLE...BOOTH FORK... WILLIAMSBURG...FRANKLIN 345 AM EST FRI JAN 6 2017 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WAKEFIELD HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * AREAS AFFECTED: SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. * HAZARDS: SNOW...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES. SOME SLEET WILL MIX WITH SNOW AT THE ONSET OVER NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA, ESPECIALLY AREAS NEAREST THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. * ACCUMULATIONS: 6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. LESSER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ALONG THE ALBEMARLE SOUND WHERE SLEET MIXES WITH SNOW. * TEMPERATURES: MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. * WINDS: NORTH 10 TO 20 MPH...15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. * TIMING: SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...THEN CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE ENDING SATURDAY EVENING. * IMPACTS: HAZARDOUS TRAVEL EXPECTED DUE TO SNOW COVERED ROADS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW... SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. && $$

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 345 AM EST FRI JAN 6 2017 ...WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA...THE LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY... VAZ099-100-062100- /O.UPG.KAKQ.WS.A.0001.170107T0600Z-170108T0600Z/ /O.NEW.KAKQ.WS.W.0001.170107T0600Z-170108T0600Z/ ACCOMACK-NORTHAMPTON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHINCOTEAGUE...WALLOPS ISLAND...MELFA... EXMORE...CAPE CHARLES...CHEAPSIDE...FISHERMANS ISLAND... KIPTOPEKE...KIPTOPEKE STATE PARK...PLANTATION 345 AM EST FRI JAN 6 2017 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 1 AM EST SUNDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WAKEFIELD HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 1 AM EST SUNDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * AREAS AFFECTED: VIRGINIA EASTERN SHORE. * HAZARDS: SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS: 6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW. * TEMPERATURES: UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30. * WINDS: NORTH 10 TO 20 MPH...INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. * TIMING: SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE TONIGHT...THEN CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE ENDING SATURDAY NIGHT. * IMPACTS: HAZARDOUS TRAVEL EXPECTED DUE TO SNOW COVERED ROADS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW... SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. && $$

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 345 AM EST FRI JAN 6 2017 ...WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA...THE LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY... MDZ021-062100- /O.NEW.KAKQ.WS.W.0001.170107T0600Z-170108T0600Z/ DORCHESTER- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...CAMBRIDGE 345 AM EST FRI JAN 6 2017 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 1 AM EST SUNDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WAKEFIELD HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 1 AM EST SUNDAY. * AREAS AFFECTED: LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE. * HAZARDS: SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS: 4 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW. HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTY. * TEMPERATURES: MID 20S TO AROUND 30. * WINDS: NORTH 10 TO 20 MPH...INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. * TIMING: SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE TONIGHT...THEN CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE ENDING SATURDAY NIGHT. * IMPACTS: HAZARDOUS TRAVEL EXPECTED DUE TO SNOW COVERED ROADS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW... SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. && $$

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 345 AM EST FRI JAN 6 2017 ...WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA...THE LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY... VAZ060-065>068-075>083-085-512>522-062100- /O.UPG.KAKQ.WS.A.0001.170107T0300Z-170108T0300Z/ /O.NEW.KAKQ.WS.W.0001.170107T0300Z-170108T0300Z/ PRINCE EDWARD-MECKLENBURG-LUNENBURG-NOTTOWAY-AMELIA-WESTMORELAND- RICHMOND-NORTHUMBERLAND-LANCASTER-BRUNSWICK-DINWIDDIE- PRINCE GEORGE-CHARLES CITY-NEW KENT-MIDDLESEX-EASTERN HANOVER- WESTERN CHESTERFIELD- EASTERN CHESTERFIELD (INCLUDING COL. HEIGHTS)- WESTERN HENRICO (INCLUDING THE CITY OF RICHMOND)-EASTERN HENRICO- WESTERN KING WILLIAM-EASTERN KING WILLIAM-WESTERN KING AND QUEEN- EASTERN KING AND QUEEN-WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FARMVILLE...SOUTH HILL...CREWE... LAWRENCEVILLE...PETERSBURG...HOPEWELL...MECHANICSVILLE... BON AIR...MIDLOTHIAN...CHESTERFIELD...CHESTER... COLONIAL HEIGHTS...RICHMOND...SANDSTON...AYLETT...KING WILLIAM... WEST POINT...KING AND QUEEN COURT HOUSE...TAPPAHANNOCK... DUNNSVILLE 345 AM EST FRI JAN 6 2017 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WAKEFIELD HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * AREAS AFFECTED: SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND THE NORTHERN NECK OF VIRGINIA. * HAZARDS: SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS: 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW. HIGHEST AMOUNTS SOUTH AND EAST OF RICHMOND. * TEMPERATURES: MID TO UPPER 20S. * WINDS: NORTH 10 TO 20 MPH. * TIMING: SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...THEN CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE ENDING EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. * IMPACTS: HAZARDOUS TRAVEL EXPECTED DUE TO SNOW COVERED ROADS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW... SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. && $$

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 345 AM EST FRI JAN 6 2017 ...WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA...THE LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY... MDZ022>025-062100- /O.UPG.KAKQ.WS.A.0001.170107T0600Z-170108T0600Z/ /O.NEW.KAKQ.WS.W.0001.170107T0600Z-170108T0600Z/ WICOMICO-SOMERSET-INLAND WORCESTER-MARYLAND BEACHES- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SALISBURY...CRISFIELD...PRINCESS ANNE... SNOW HILL...OCEAN CITY 345 AM EST FRI JAN 6 2017 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 1 AM EST SUNDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WAKEFIELD HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 1 AM EST SUNDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * AREAS AFFECTED: LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE. * HAZARDS: SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS: 4 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW. * TEMPERATURES: MID 20S TO AROUND 30. * WINDS: NORTH 10 TO 20 MPH...INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. * TIMING: SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE TONIGHT...THEN CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE ENDING SATURDAY NIGHT. * IMPACTS: HAZARDOUS TRAVEL EXPECTED DUE TO SNOW COVERED ROADS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW... SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. && $$

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 914 PM EST THU JAN 5 2017 ...WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY... .AN ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ON FRIDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL CAUSE AREAS OF MODERATE SNOW OR SNOW MIXED WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TO OCCUR ACROSS A LARGE SWATH OF CENTRAL NC. NCZ007>011-023>028-040>043-074>077-083-084-061100- /O.CON.KRAH.WS.W.0001.170107T0000Z-170108T0000Z/ PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-ALAMANCE-ORANGE-DURHAM- FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-CHATHAM-WAKE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-MONTGOMERY- MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-ANSON-RICHMOND- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUSHY FORK...CONCORD...ROXBORO...SURL... OXFORD...BUTNER...CREEDMOOR...DABNEY...HENDERSON...NORLINA... WISE...AFTON...WARRENTON...LAKE GASTON...ROANOKE RAPIDS... BURLINGTON...GRAHAM...CHAPEL HILL...CARRBORO...BETHESDA... DURHAM...RESEARCH TRIANGLE...PILOT...INGLESIDE...LOUISBURG... FRANKLINTON...NASHVILLE...AVENTON...RED OAK...SHARPSBURG... SPRING HOPE...ROCKY MOUNT...HASTY...SILER CITY...BYNUM... MONCURE...PITTSBORO...RALEIGH...CARY...SMITHFIELD...CLAYTON... FLOWERS...SELMA...BENSON...COATS CROSSROADS...NEW HOPE...WILSON... TROY...BISCOE...MOUNT GILEAD...PEKIN...BADIN LAKE...ELDORADO... SOUTHERN PINES...PINEHURST...ABERDEEN...EAGLE SPRINGS... SEVEN LAKES...CUMNOCK...GUM SPRINGS...SANFORD...TRAMWAY...DUNN... ANDERSON CREEK...TIMBERLAKE...DUNCAN...ERWIN...ANGIER... LILLINGTON...WADESBORO...POLKTON...ROCKINGHAM...HAMLET... EAST ROCKINGHAM 914 PM EST THU JAN 5 2017 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM FRIDAY TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY... * LOCATIONS...THE SOUTHERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT AREAS...THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN...AND THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SANDHILLS. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW... OR A MIXTURE OF SNOW AND SLEET. * ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW...OR A MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE * TIMING...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AS A WINTRY MIX LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING... TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW WEST OF HIGHWAY 1... AND A MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TRIANGLE FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND NOON SATURDAY. * IMPACTS...THE HEAVY SNOW WILL MAKE MANY ROADS IMPASSABLE AND MAY PRODUCE SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...SLEET AND ICE ARE EXPECTED. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. && $$

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 342 PM EST THU JAN 5 2017 ...A WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH A VARIETY OF PRECIPITATION TYPES... .COLD CANADIAN AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL FILTER INTO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MEANWHILE A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK JUST OFF OF THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY PRODUCING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WHICH WILL LEAD TO A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS A LAYER OF WARM AIR DEVELOPS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. THE WARM LAYER ALOFT WILL DISSIPATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING THE PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW AND SLEET BEFORE ENDING. NCZ029-044>046-079-060900- /O.UPG.KMHX.WS.A.0001.170107T0300Z-170108T0600Z/ /O.NEW.KMHX.WS.W.0001.170107T0300Z-170108T0600Z/ MARTIN-PITT-WASHINGTON-TYRRELL-GREENE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILLIAMSTON...ROBERSONVILLE... OAK CITY...JAMESVILLE...GREENVILLE...BETHEL...FARMVILLE... GRIFTON...GRIMESLAND...PLYMOUTH...ROPER...CRESWELL...COLUMBIA... GUM NECK...SNOW HILL...HOOKERTON...WALSTONBURG 342 PM EST THU JAN 5 2017 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EST SUNDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW, SLEET AND POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN ...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EST SUNDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * LOCATIONS...GREENE, PITT, MARTIN, WASHINGTON, AND TYRRELL COUNTIES. * HAZARD TYPES...RAIN FRIDAY EVENING WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AND SLEET AFTER MIDNIGHT THEN CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SOME FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...ALONG WITH A MINOR ACCRETION OF ICE. * TIMING...THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. * IMPACTS...THE HEAVY SNOW AND SLEET WILL CREATE SNOW COVERED ROADS AND PRODUCE SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES. * TEMPERATURES...DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S FRIDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY REMAINING AT OR BELOW FREEZING SATURDAY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. && $$

 

[WarmNose]

We are so fortunate to have this storm without the Greenland blocking. Count your blessings. Nothing but high pressures behind our system between us and the Arctic. Textbook setup 

[Coach McGuirk]

Just got my Winter Storm Warning.  8-12 inches or bust.

[Brendon Small]

Just now, Coach McGuirk said:

Just got my Winter Storm Warning.  8-12 inches or bust.

Congrats!

[burgertime]

Hi-Res NAM is mixing a lot for GSP - CLT - RDU. GSP fairs a little better. 

[ncskywarn]

Still mixing but a big change an improvement between 00Z and 06Z NAM runs

[Timothy Clyde]

6z GFS 15"+ Alabama, i know not all snow

[Timothy Clyde]

3 minutes ago, Bryan9451 said:

What location in Alabama? 

 sleet/zr but cool to see fantasy totals. actually keeps a slither of upstate SC/eastern GA above freezing the entire event. better run for north-west GA

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

One of the best AFD's I have ever read from GSP this morning. 

[Bryan9451]

1 minute ago, Timothy Clyde said:

 sleet/zr but cool to see fantasy totals. actually keeps a slither of upstate SC/eastern GA above freezing the entire event. better run for north-west GA

Thanks. The county I live in is right below the "15". I'm not real sure what to expect at this point

[burgertime]

GSP AFD...

 

 

000
FXUS62 KGSP 060833
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
333 AM EST Fri Jan 6 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered well to our northwest will persist over the
region through Friday. A low pressure system will lift out of the
Northern Gulf of Mexico early Saturday bringing widespread winter
precipitation to the region. As the low moves offshore, a strong
arctic surface high will overspread the region late Saturday and
persist into early next week, bringing very cold air into the
region. Another cold front is expected to approach the Carolinas by
the middle of next week, increasing rain chances once again.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 330 AM EST Friday: Allrightey, let`s just dive straight into
the details (there are a lot of them, so bear with me). Synoptic
setup is no surprise, with broad trough dominating the eastern half
of the country and a sharp shortwave diving out of the Rockies this
morning and progged to push across the Southern Plains and Southeast
through the day. Moisture attendant with the shortwave plus
additional moisture that advects up from the Gulf will begin to
overspread the area today as isentropic upglide increases. Synoptic
lift in the form of CVA increases ahead of the vort max, plus lift
from the right entrance region of the upper jet (looking at upwards
of 150kt at 300mb over the central Appalachians). Weak surface CAA
will continue today but will really gear up as surface cyclogenesis
is induced along the Gulf this afternoon and lifts up the coast in a
Miller A pattern, and the gradient will really pick up overnight
tonight with additional CAA. So for highs today under widespread
cloud cover aloft should see well below normal temperatures with
really not much of a diurnal range from this morning, with the
colder air filtering in after midnight.

So we go to the typical cold air vs. moisture argument - which one
arrives first and which dominates? For that we need to pick a model,
and the consensus is leaning slightly toward the GFS and ECMWF as
WPC seems to indicate the NAM has the surface low a little farther
north/northeast. Because of this, the NAM has slightly warmer
temperatures aloft at 850mb and brings occasional >0C to the
profiles along the I-85 corridor (to the north it`s all below
freezing so no p-type questions), but for the most part is similar
to GFS and other profiles with a deep near-freezing isothermal
layer, leading to lower snow ratios and a wetter snow (all the
better for making snowballs). So what it looks like is that rain
will begin this afternoon across the Piedmont (snow in the mountains
and foothills) but mix with and change over to snow as the cold air
arrives after 00z. As is typical, would not be surprised to see some
sleet mix in at onset (which may mess with snow amounts), but
generally think p-type will be all snow shortly after midnight.
Moisture begins exiting from the northwest toward the end of the
period (12z).

Oh, but we`re not done. Looking at QPF totals, looks like low-level
frontogenetical forcing to the northwest of the surface low along
with very low (negative) saturated geostrophic potential vorticity
above the frontogenesis (conditional symmetric instability) all
point to the likelihood of mesoscale bands setting up. At this
juncture it`s impossible to know exactly where this might occur, but
most of the guidance seems to indicate it will be somewhere along
the southern edge of our forecast area but possibly anywhere within
a few dozen miles of I-85. SREF plumes definitely show the variety
and large spread in snow amounts, with for example the 03z run
having one member almost 20" here at GSP and some with as little as
1", averaging to just over 6" (the spread is worse at CLT, for the
record). The anomalously high members are obviously skewing the mean
so taken together with the GEFS plumes (which have much more
reasonable spread) we end up generally where we started, pretty
close to WPC storm total snowfall. As a result, have bumped up
amounts a tad with over 6" at CLT and just under 6" here at GSP, and
with a wide range across the mountains due to terrain effects. On
the other end of the mesoscale banding, however, is if the warmer
850mb temperatures come to fruition and we end up with more sleet at
onset, or if the cold air takes longer to advect in and the rain
lingers a little longer than anticipated, we could have slightly
lower amounts. Hence the bust potential. In the end, still solidly
warning criteria everywhere, and the few places that might not make
it will be close enough. The good news is that we are talking
Saturday morning so except for those industries that are 24/7 (such
as yours truly) impacts will certainly be less than what they might
otherwise be on a weekday. The bad news is that as you can see below
in the short term and extended discussions, there won`t be much
recovery through the weekend.

In the meantime (assuming you ever finish reading this slightly
longer-than-normal AFD), and we cannot stress this enough -
PREPARATIONS FOR THIS WINTER STORM NEED TO BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION
*TODAY* (yes, that was in all caps for a reason). Once we`re talking
6" of snow (or more, depending on which ensemble member you choose),
we really increase the probability of power outages from snow
bringing down limbs. We expect very cold temperatures behind this
system so residents of the western Carolinas and northeast Georgia
need to take winter storm preparation seriously. Once that`s done,
stay safe but enjoy the snow!

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM EST Friday...A potent vort lobe will cross the Southern
Appalachians Saturday morning, helping carve out a deep long wave
trough across the eastern CONUS. Models are in decent agreement that
the snow should be tapering off from west to east between 12-18z
Saturday, as the Miller-A low pressure system zips northeast off the
NC coast. Forecast soundings show drying from the top down, and forcing
will exit to the east. An additional inch or two of snow will be
possible after 12z across the I-77 corridor, but otherwise, very
little additional amounts elsewhere. Continued cold advection on
back side of the storm and fresh snow cover will keep temps at or
below freezing pretty much everywhere except the Lakelands thru the
day.

Saturday night thru Sunday night, The upper trough will begin to
deamplify, but the center of arctic high pressure will slide
southeast from the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic. This will usher
in a cold wave to the region that will linger into early next week.
Along with cold air, there will be a little wind in the mountains
that will bring wind chills into the 0 to -15 degrees F range early
Sunday morning. A wind chill advisory will likely be needed for the
Northern Mountains and most of the rest of the NC mountains above
3500 ft. Temps will be downright frigid, with lows in the single digits
and teens both nights. Winds will lighter Sunday night, so wind
chills should not be as low. Temps on Sunday will likely remain below
freezing across northern half of the CWFA, and reach only the mid to
upper 30s south.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 230 AM EST Thursday: The strong arctic surface high will be
place over southern VA 12Z Monday morning when the medium range
picks up, with the upper trough that was centered over the eastern
CONUS rapidly flattening during the day on Monday. Nearly zonal flow
aloft will likely persist all the way through Thursday, with a
moderately intense shortwave swinging across the southern
Appalachians during the day on Wednesday. A surface low will
accompany this shortwave, with a surface cold front developing as
the low deepens over the Central Plains.

As far as sensible weather, Monday will be exceptionally cold for
our area. Min temps in the morning will be in the low teens in the
Piedmont and Foothills, with single digits for the mountains. Wind
chills should not meet advisory criteria due to the proximity of the
surface high, but let`s face it...it is still going to feel pretty
brutally cold. Max temps will likely barely make it above freezing
in most Piedmont locations in the afternoon Monday, though the
Foothills and mountains likely will not. With the cold being
extremely persistent, this seems to present the rare occasion in
which there may still be lingering re-freezing/potential black ice
concerns from the previous weekend`s snow not only Monday morning,
but perhaps early Tuesday morning as well.

Southerly flow will encourage moisture return into the region during
the day on Tuesday after the frigid surface high exits off the east
coast. Some upsloping coupled with moisture will likely result in
some isolated precip beginning Tuesday morning, with profiles
supporting the possibility of a few hours of freezing rain in the
mountains before a transition to all rain. A rapid warming trend
will commence at this point as well, with max temps climbing to
above average by Wednesday and Thursday. The main surface front (and
best upper forcing) will approach the area by Wednesday, raising
precip chances considerably across the entire CWA. QPF remains
uncertain, though all major models do show good response during the
day Wednesday with the upper shortwave passing overhead. Questions
regarding just how clean this frontal passage will be still
exist...and with a few upper vort maxes still passing over the
southern Appalachians later in the week coupled with potential
lingering moisture and a surface boundary...chance pops remain in
the forecast all the way through the end of the medium range.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and Elsewhere: VFR this morning and into the afternoon hours
with increasing low VFR clouds and winds generally lgt/vrb early in
the period but picking up out of the NE through the day. Moisture
will increase this afternoon into the evening as cold air filters
in, with -RA developing after 18z but mixing with and changing to -
SN shortly after 00z. Kept previous PROB30s toward 00z and will
transition to TEMPOs as needed with the next update. Cigs and vsbys
will drop to MVFR and may see some IFR creeping in toward the end of
the period.

Outlook: Snow and associated restrictions will continue into
Saturday morning. The winter precip is expected to move out Saturday
afternoon, followed by VFR conditions as an arctic high moves across
the region Sunday and Monday.

Confidence Table...

            08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z        02-06Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High  83%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High  90%     High 100%
KAVL       High  98%     High 100%     High  95%     High  85%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High  92%     High  90%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High  88%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High  90%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST
     Saturday for GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029.
NC...Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST
     Saturday for NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
     068>072-082-501>510.
SC...Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST
     Saturday for SCZ001>014-019.

[mackerel_sky]

GSP discussion is nice! Said there is a member somewhere, that has 20" total and some with Zero! Uncertainties, yes! Just hoping to get under a "banding" feature!

[strongwxnc]

27 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

One of the best AFD's I have ever read from GSP this morning. 

+1 on that statement. 

[strongwxnc]

7 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

GSP discussion is nice! Said there is a member somewhere, that has 20" total and some with Zero! Uncertainties, yes! Just hoping to get under a "banding" feature!

And we should be able to identify the possible location of this banding as the returns begin to enter late day.