packbacker Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 This really reminds me of the Jan 28, 2014 event, except further NW. The problem that Raleigh ran into with this event was the QPF gradient was really tight and the heavier QPF didn't extend as far NW as models had showed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, NCSNOW said: I never like to see a SLP come inside of charleston, my benchmark Man, that what I need just inside charleston. But I think you're safe... I just hope to get my forecast of 3-5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timothy Clyde Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 12 minutes ago, Cary_Snow95 said: E11/16 mixture is pretty much my forecast. Glad to see it supported and I am not forecasting crazy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 7 minutes ago, griteater said: UKMet really cuts it close with 850mb temps for CLT to RDU airports. Looks better from southern foothills to Winston for temp/precip combo Cuts it close by there being mixing? Or is it all snow and close to changing to mix? Thanks man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbsolutZero Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 14 minutes ago, Cary_Snow95 said: Not signed in Didn't Ryan Maue say IP and S combined in these accumulations? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, AbsolutZero said: Didn't Ryan Maue say IP and S combined in these accumulations? He most certainly did. While I have your attention, great job by the FFC on getting out in front of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: Man, that what I need just inside charleston. But I think you're safe... I just hope to get my forecast of 3-5 I can gurantee if ukmet is right it'll mix, transition all up down i85. 77 will love it. You get outside charleston prfearaby savannahs 85 is gold. Seen it a few to many times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbsolutZero Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, HWY316wx said: He most certainly did. While I have your attention, great job by the FFC on getting out in front of this. Thank you but the team did this. I'm on tonight for cleanup. Will be lurking here. Good luck to all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 For reference...this is what RGEM had from 36 hours out, where we are now, for the Jan 28, 2014 event and also what verified. Pretty much nailed it. http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/maps/accum.20140129.gif https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/42584-128-130-storm-thread-ii/?do=findComment&comment=2691087 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 12 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: Wow, carywx just laid out down the royal flush... Yeah please let that be right lol. Living in eastern NC all my life ( 44 years) I can tell you that almost every system we have had where temps during the event where in the mid to low 20's ( there havent been that many) were predominantly snowstorms....PGV is averaging around 1.75" QPF for this storm in the models....even if half of it is snow thats 6" or more...also the GFS/RGEM etc drop .50-.75 of that in 3 hrs with surface temps around 23-24...that said we had sleet mix in in Mar 1980 and Dec 2000 and both of those storms were AWESOME lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 13 minutes ago, packbacker said: Pushing all in with the RGEM/Euro combo. Just re-reading some of the past winter storms where we went through this. As much as I wish the GFS/GEFS was correct it was never the model that got temp profiles correct. The RGEM/Euro did fairly well at this range (inside 36) and the NAM was always to warm (knock on wood). Sounds pretty good Pack to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, AbsolutZero said: Thank you but the team did this. I'm on tonight for cleanup. Will be lurking here. Good luck to all! Are you going to write the next forecast discussion for KFFC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Old school GFS MAV MOS snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 5 minutes ago, packbacker said: For reference...this is what RGEM had from 36 hours out, where we are now, for the Jan 28, 2014 event and also what verified. Pretty much nailed it. http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/maps/accum.20140129.gif https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/42584-128-130-storm-thread-ii/?do=findComment&comment=2691087 Great find - do you by chance know how the NAM did at that point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbsolutZero Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, weatherfide said: Are you going to write the next forecast discussion for KFFC? I will but it might be late like 4am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, ajr said: Great find - do you by chance know how the NAM did at that point? No maps...but this is what the Euro had at this range. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/42584-128-130-storm-thread-ii/?page=43#comment-2688812 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolBreeze Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Is anyone planning to provide a PBP for the upcoming Euro run? Otherwise, since it's fairly quiet, I may head to bed to prepare for an all-nighter tomorrow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, AbsolutZero said: I will but it might be late like 4am This crazy bunch never sleeps during a storm 19 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: I'm trying to find this. Is it 850 or skinny warm nose. Inside even over charleston track is cutting it close Sfc low on UKMet is just off the coast at Charleston. Here's the warmest 850 panel 14 minutes ago, Rankin5150 said: Cuts it close by there being mixing? Or is it all snow and close to changing to mix? Thanks man! Yes cuts in close in terms of staying all or mostly snow....UK would likely mix at RDU and CLT airports Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, AbsolutZero said: I will but it might be late like 4am I'll look forward to reading it in the morning. I don't know how you make it through these graveyard shifts! If I get 3" of sleet, there is going to be some crazy sledding! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, CoolBreeze said: Is anyone planning to provide a PBP for the upcoming Euro run? Otherwise, since it's fairly quiet, I may head to bed to prepare for an all-nighter tomorrow! Grit is here and I will add color commentary. Mr. Nelson is on board tonight too, so he might join us... who knows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, weatherfide said: I'll look forward to reading it in the morning. I don't know how you make it through these graveyard shifts! If I get 3" of sleet, there is going to be some crazy sledding! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 The Pac wave over Utah is a little stronger early on out to 9 on the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, packbacker said: No maps...but this is what the Euro had at this range. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/42584-128-130-storm-thread-ii/?page=43#comment-2688812 Good stuff pack. High confidence now we are fine on precip amounts in our space. Just have 850 temp issues to worry about. Hoping that boundary line moves no further west than about Lillington-Clayton-Rocky Mount and just pummels our area with heavy snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 6 minutes ago, HWY316wx said: Grit is here and I will add color commentary. Mr. Nelson is on board tonight too, so he might join us... who knows? Ah so that is Mr. Nelson. I was wondering.... Hopefully we see it come on board in the good upslope regions of the mountains here. Lowest total from any model right now is the CMC at 5". GFS is 7, nam versions are 9+ (overdone probably). Be nice to have the euro show more than 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 At 15 Euro looks a hair stronger and less positive tilt and more separation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Pac wave maybe a touch stronger at 15, not much difference. Looks like the streams aren't separating any additional space...so it's similar to last run. Heights slightly higher along Carolina coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 At 24 the wave is a little stronger than the last run...to me Pack, it has the same stream separation as last time, maybe even a little less Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Euro going with the theme of hair stronger and SLP looks a little deeper through 27. Splitting hairs really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, griteater said: At 24 the wave is a little stronger than the last run...to me Pack, it has the same stream separation as last time, maybe even a little less Def sharper at 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 It's a little warmer in E NC at 30...not much difference to the west. Good bit more precip back west on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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