HKY1894 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 00z dwd-icon held serve, plenty of QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 The RGEM is FZRAPL in ATL from 00-03Z. Not sure about FZRA because I don't see a sounding where the surface below freezing layer is under 2500ft deep which is usually too deep for FZRA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mckinnonwg Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Snowmaggedon in ATL screwed forecasting snow events. Everybody is afraid to state a total or to even dare say nothing will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michael Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, UpstateSCBud said: No doubt WYFF is in CYA mode. I said back when they blew that 8-12" forecast a couple years ago that theyd never predict that high of totals ever again. 1 minute ago, UpstateSCBud said: No doubt WYFF is in CYA mode. I said back when they blew that 8-12" forecast a couple years ago that theyd never predict that high of totals ever again. That really was a bummer, the warm nose almost always over performs around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lookingnorth Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 10 minutes ago, packbacker said: Good thing about these deeper further NW track is more QPF so that could help overcome some mixing. But I do think we mix. If we verbatim get what the RGEM/CMC/GFS or even NAM I don't think the Triangle will be to disappointed. But, it's got to stop shift NW. Exactly. If the NW trend stops right now, I could well jackpot and get 6-8" of snow. But if it continues, who knows what will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shahroz98 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, mckinnonwg said: Snowmaggedon in ATL screwed forecasting snow events. Everybody is afraid to state a total or to even dare say nothing will happen. So true. The Weather Channel still has a petty 1-3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 31 minutes ago, packbacker said: Well even the inferno that is the 12km NAM is all frozen for Raleigh. We will have to fight warm nose, that's a give but hopefully we can jack with a ton of QPF. This actually makes me feel better lol. My main concern is I just want the ground decently covered and everything winter like. What kind of ratios do you get with sleet anyways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 8 minutes ago, CaryWx said: Fischel just conceded the 850 line will not move southeast of Wake county until after 7am Saturday. Signaling game over for lots of snow accumulation in Raleigh if you ask me. I should know better than to think that we can beat Climo around here. I don't know when I am going to learn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, Michael said: That really was a bummer, the warm nose almost always over performs around here I'll take 2-3" of sleet with an inch or two of snow on top! Great sledding, takes longer to melt!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: The RGEM is FZRAPL in ATL from 00-03Z. Not sure about FZRA because I don't see a sounding where the surface below freezing layer is under 2500ft deep which is usually too deep for FZRA Agree. Sleet to snow (maybe beginning as a bit of plain rain) seems likely. 03Z seems like a good changeover time in the city proper, but whoever can stay just north of the sleet area will get pummeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sakau2007 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, Cary_Snow95 said: This actually makes me feel better lol. My main concern is I just want the ground decently covered and everything winter like. What kind of ratios do you get with sleet anyways I think sleet ratios are usually about 4:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, mckinnonwg said: Snowmaggedon in ATL screwed forecasting snow events. Everybody is afraid to state a total or to even dare say nothing will happen. That explains the behavior out at FFC. Make sure everyone thinks and prepares for the worst, even if there is only a sliver of a chance of it happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, shahroz98 said: So true. The Weather Channel still has a petty 1-3 Just looked at the forecast for my area in Candler park, they have 3-5" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 The 00z DWD-ICON more or less held serve. It looks like it decreased totals a little bit in the west and moved the heaviest precip a little further east, but it's not much different than the 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, weatherfide said: That explains the behavior out at FFC. Make sure everyone thinks and prepares for the worst, even if there is only a sliver of a chance of it happening. Their forecast is not out of line at all given the GFS forecast- 3-5" seems very doable in this case. This is coming from someone that is often very critical of their forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shahroz98 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, Cheeznado said: Just looked at the forecast for my area in Candler park, they have 3-5" here. Lawrencevile for TWC has 1-3 while NWS has 4-6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 GFS actually has 1.03 snow for ATL liquid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Didn't see the CMC posted so here it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, Cheeznado said: Their forecast is not out of line at all given the GFS forecast- 3-5" seems very doable in this case. This is coming from someone that is often very critical of their forecasts. Do you think they will shave off the accumulations south of the airport to account for the predominant sleet precip type? The call map was issued at 1 pm., and honestly, the models haven't changed a whole lot since then... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: GFS actually has 1.03 snow for ATL liquid Dang! They would be shut down for a week! Really need the cold to get up over the mountains !! The Arctic air is close, think I saw Cincinnati at 16 currently and Memphis at 26, it's gonna need to giddy up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 7 minutes ago, weatherfide said: That explains the behavior out at FFC. Make sure everyone thinks and prepares for the worst, even if there is only a sliver of a chance of it happening. that actually might be one of the more mind boggling comments i've seen here in a long time...well right behind the person you were responding too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shahroz98 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, Cheeznado said: Holy crap look at the Bufkit: almost 10"! Do not really buy it but damn> If only... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timothy Clyde Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 0z GFS came in very much to my liking I posted earlier this evening before it came out. Believe there will be three main swaths of a Trace to 2"...with potential screw jobs for some. This is the equivalent of a very light passing shower with lots of precip not hitting the ground combined with the main development developing east-south-east of these locals. Some of these areas will not see any snow fall at all if you are not awake extremely early Saturday morning. *The screw job potential is based on dry air, convection disrupting moisture flow, unfavorable development/movement of precipitation, and other local micro issues around MTNS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 28 minutes ago, Cheeznado said: Just N/NE of the perimeter up I-85 the NE mountains. if you are in Cumming you could be in a very good area..... agreed. thinking ne burbs of atlanta, to lawrenceville to jefferson/commerce back to lula then back down to sugar hill/essentially the 985 corridor. . Most likely the i85 corridor will be the big winner northeast of there...but i'm just throwing a *** in there just in case surface temps don't cool...which i actually think they will. In fact the gfs has an all snow profile even here by 03z and i'm well south of there. It's odd though, the nam has that warm nose but is colder down to 950 to 975mb while the gfs is warmer at 950mb to 975mb but colder aloft. Figures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, Lookout said: that actually might be one of the more mind boggling comments i've seen here in a long time...well right behind the person you were responding too Lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Is there anyone who can tell me where they think the likely area(s) may receive Thundersnow? Or is it too early to know? Stupid question, but I couldn't resist... Thank you in advance... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, Lookout said: that actually might be one of the more mind boggling comments i've seen here in a long time...well right behind the person you were responding too LOL...yeah, I guess so...Should be fun to verify. I'd think about 1" of sleet and 1.75" of snow for Fayetteville, GA is a realistic expectation here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Ukie is right on the SC coast at 36,just a hair west of 12z off Charleston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 UKIE across AL/GA almost looks more like the GFS...probably drier, definitely not as amped precip wise as RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 It's an interesting dilemma. On one hand, the hi res models could simply be too amped with the wave, we've seen that before. On the other hand, the globals may not be amped quite enough. Take an RGEM/GFS/Euro blend. On the NAM, yes it is good with thermals, especially with cold air damming, but if it doesn't have 500mb and 850mb correct, you can't use the thermals. Euro should offer some help. On the precip, the GFS/RGEM/GGEM have all come into agreement with more of a uniform blossoming of the precip shield across most of the Carolinas and back toward ATL and south of there, which I believe looks more correct now. Though it took it a while to get here, the GGEM has, I feel, a representative look of the precip shield, save the fact that it could be overdone as tends to be the case with model QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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