rduwx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, ajr said: I think NAM is way overdoing the mixing.. I don't know if it's overdoing the mixing with that track. I'm not sure I believe the track of the NAM though. Also, over the years I've seen this NW trend several times on the models only to have a slight readjustment to the south the last 24 hours. Unfortunately it's not usually enough to help us in the RDU area...LOL. But I wouldn't be surprised to see a slight adjustment south tomorrow by 12z. I'm no saying it'll happen, just it wouldn't surprise me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, LovingGulfLows said: I agree with SnowGoose.If you look at 850 mb wind maps, there's an obvious 850 low spinning across N GA and that's bringing warmer air into the lower levels from the southwest not to mention winds are around 14 kt or so...a lot higher than when you move away from the 850 low....I think this is what the RGEM and NAM are trying to show sadly. I hope you're right though, but I don't think so. My forecast of 4-5" is less than than the GFS, I agree that sleet will cut down the accumulation but there is enough UVV even later on on the back side to give us that much. I hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 well the first part of my post might not make sense, i was trying to reply to Moto's rgem snowfall map. tried to delete the map so it wouldnt repost but apparently deleted his entire post i was replying to just wanted to add on burrell's map what also caught my eye was the heavy snow band just to the north of the sleet band. while we probably wont know until its nowcasting time, the area lucky enough to be in the snow zone but closest to the sleet, could see some very heavy snow. hopefully what we are seeing is what lookout and others have mentioned regarding rates and scouring out the warm bubble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Canadian is way west of previous runs. LP is inland just north of Jacksonville Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 NAM is normally very effective in sniffing out the warm nose. The trend NW really isn't that surprising given the history of these types of storms. That said, its vertical profile for the triangle is based on a SLP just offshore, which is likely overdone given the setup we have with this one. We have an open positively titled wave and 500mb heights are quite a bit lower than those which correspond to an icestorm in the i85 corridor historically. IMBY wise, definitely think we will have to deal with sleet if we jackpot, just b/c that's the nature of the beast if you're close to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, griteater said: We knew a week ago how this was going to turn out right? 850 lows running up our fanny and me, you, and pack scratching and clawing to fight off elevated warm nostrils Yep. The 850 Low NEVER tracks to my south, unless it's during the summer. Whats our next model up? CMC? 144 UK panels? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Let me point out that "Atlanta" is a large metro, Downtown is right on the mix line and could go either way but NE/N parts of the greater are should get crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Canadian is way west of previous runs. LP is inland just north of Jacksonville Florida. Not surprising. It was the easternmost of solutions if I remember correctly. This run looked like a good hit for RDU. I'd just focus on the RGEM at this range though; it's the short-range Canadian model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, Cheeznado said: My forecast of 4-5" is less than than the GFS, I agree that sleet will cut down the accumulation but there is enough UVV even later on on the back side to give us that much. I hope. The GFS has a more broad 850 mb low because the system is simply weaker than it is on the NAM, plus the 850 mb center is slightly more south so Atlanta doesn't get hit with the strong WSW winds in the lower levels which allows cold air to filter in faster. I don't think we'd want a stronger 850 mb low because that would simply pull in warmer air into the lower levels thus making it harder to change over to all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 7 minutes ago, Cheeznado said: Actually they get down to 0 (wet bulb) at 03Z. Plenty of time to get 4-5" of snow, which is what I am thinking right now, But farther north up near Doraville etc they will get hammered. Agree...my comment was mostly directed at those who were talking that the clown maps were all snow for ATL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 GGEM is a hammer job on I-85 through 12z Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, ST21 said: Where would you say the jackpot area in Georgia would be? Just N/NE of the perimeter up I-85 the NE mountains. if you are in Cumming you could be in a very good area..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 5 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: NAM is normally very effective in sniffing out the warm nose. The trend NW really isn't that surprising given the history of these types of storms. That said, its vertical profile for the triangle is based on a SLP just offshore, which is likely overdone given the setup we have with this one. We have an open positively titled wave and 500mb heights are quite a bit lower than those which correspond to an icestorm in the i85 corridor historically. IMBY wise, definitely think we will have to deal with sleet if we jackpot, just b/c that's the nature of the beast if you're close to it. Thanks for sharing - in a similar light re: mixing issues around RDU, curious what you think about this? https://twitter.com/Brandonmasters3/status/817212275375357953 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Here is total sleet and snow through 00z Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, MotoWeatherman said: Agree...my comment was mostly directed at those who were talking that the clown maps were all snow for ATL. I do not expect all snow here (east of Downtown) despite the clown maps- sleet is very likely. How fast it changes over is the key and very tricky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, ajr said: Thanks for sharing - in a similar light re: mixing issues around RDU, curious what you think about this? https://twitter.com/Brandonmasters3/status/817212275375357953 It's possible, but he's likely wrong. That's a plenty deep enough layer to turn flakes into rocks. I've seen it a million times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, ajr said: Thanks for sharing - in a similar light re: mixing issues around RDU, curious what you think about this? https://twitter.com/Brandonmasters3/status/817212275375357953 Good thing about these deeper further NW track is more QPF so that could help overcome some mixing. But I do think we mix. If we verbatim get what the RGEM/CMC/GFS or even NAM I don't think the Triangle will be to disappointed. But, it's got to stop shift NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 The in house model on our local channel, has mix/snow very near Chattanooga and ATL , by 7 AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neatlburbwthrguy Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, Cheeznado said: Just N/NE of the perimeter up I-85 the NE mountains. if you are in Cumming you could be in a very good area..... I am in Dunwoody....if we can change over fast enough with heavy enough rates....I think 5-6 inches is very realistic.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 I would think that mets in the triad are going to have to up their totals a good amount. Most mets are saying 1-3 or 2-4 and the only model I can think of showing that is the Euro. I expect to see the Euro to follow other guidance and go NW here in an hour or two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mckinnonwg Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said: The in house model on our local channel, has mix/snow very near Chattanooga and ATL , by 7 AM I work in the schools and am very nervous watching the speed of this and the pops early. At least for icing and sleet reasons. Nobody is calling it off in my area and we are right in the swath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sakau2007 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Looking like a pretty decent chance of 1" of sleet for the area between I-20 and US-84 in MS/AL. At this point, I'll cash that in. I'm concerned about both QPF and temps here just south of Birmingham. I'm hoping it comes in just a touch wetter and colder than forecasted. If it does, could be the biggest event here in over 15 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, NC_WX10 said: I would think that mets in the triad are going to have to up their totals a good amount. Most mets are saying 1-3 or 2-4 and the only model I can think of showing that is the Euro. I expect to see the Euro to follow other guidance and go NW here in an hour or two Our local guys are just covering theirselves by saying 2-4"+, and could go higher! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Fischel just conceded the 850 line will not move southeast of Wake county until after 7am Saturday. Signaling game over for lots of snow accumulation in Raleigh if you ask me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 In case anyone is interested, Robert has a couple of very recent updates on his facebook page. He is bullish for I-85 from B-ham all the way to RDU. Check it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shahroz98 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 WSBTV is saying 4 to 5 inches for Metro Atlanta mainly north of I-20, extreme cutoff near Monroe, McDonough. Is it possible for the totals to get higher ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 9 minutes ago, rduwx said: I don't know if it's overdoing the mixing with that track. I'm not sure I believe the track of the NAM though. Also, over the years I've seen this NW trend several times on the models only to have a slight readjustment to the south the last 24 hours. Unfortunately it's not usually enough to help us in the RDU area...LOL. But I wouldn't be surprised to see a slight adjustment south tomorrow by 12z. I'm no saying it'll happen, just it wouldn't surprise me. this is true, but I wont be surprised to see big ol fat pingers during the event, but I saw mixing in Dec 2000 and Mar 1980 and both of those were big time hits for us.....usually I fear being to warm but this time I think if anything the models are to warm not to cold.....most models have temps crashing into the mid to low 20's with heavy rates and a lot of that 1.6" of QPF to go means this is going to be fun no matter what lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Our local guys are just covering theirselves by saying 2-4"+, and could go higher! That always irritates me when I see that. Like go out on a limb a little bit. Saying 1"-3"+ with locally higher amounts does not take any forecasting skills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpstateSCBud Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Our local guys are just covering theirselves by saying 2-4"+, and could go higher! No doubt WYFF is in CYA mode. I said back when they blew that 8-12" forecast a couple years ago that theyd never predict that high of totals ever again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, CaryWx said: Fischel just conceded the 850 line will not move southeast of Wake county until after 7am Saturday. Signaling game over for lots of snow accumulation in Raleigh if you ask me. Yeah, based on his comments, the southern half of the county will be lucky to get a couple inches of snow. Your side should do better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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