packbacker Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Comparing the NAM to the RGEM...the NAM has the SLP over SAV and RGEM is 100 miles east at hour 33. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 6 minutes ago, odell.moton said: What city are you in boss Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Greenville, SC area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, packbacker said: RGEM is 5-6 mb deeper and thus more QPF. Also, just as cold give or take as the GFS, though maybe a hair NW of GFS. 24 hours to go and you would think we would be thrilled with the GFS showing 10". Instead we're all nervous and sick to our stomachs LOL. I'm gonna be nervous to pick up my phone in the morning and look at what happened over night. Regardless this has been a crazy storm to follow with you all. I just want to cover the ground nicely and let the cold swing in. Nothing like snow on the ground and playoff football fellas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 7 minutes ago, MotoWeatherman said: Per the GFS most of that QPF would not be snow but probably sleet. 850s don't crash below zero until 10-11pm or so. The precip type clown maps have us barely in snow for much of the event. Going to be very close. I would take a couple inches of sleet followed by 4-5" of snow..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersNotComing Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: It depends on what part of Richland county you're in. I could see Irmo and Pontiac doing fairly well but down by the end of 77 seeing virtually nothing. Might go stay up with family in Irmo. Could see a big difference from there compared to downtown. The cutoff for make or break is so sharp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 The GFS is just not seeing the warm nose in ATL because lower resolution. No way with that SW flow is ATL snow before 04-05z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 QPF on new GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Saw this on twitter - NAM may have overdone the sleet for RDU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, packbacker said: Comparing the NAM to the RGEM...the NAM has the SLP over SAV and RGEM is 100 miles east at hour 33. Bingo. If you plot the SLP track like you do a hurricane it will tell the tale. Anyone thinks a 20 to 40 mile difference in that track matters, just look at the post of everyone sweating each model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 JB FWIW--- Tweets Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi 1m1 minute ago Think NAM will turn out closer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, packbacker said: Comparing the NAM to the RGEM...the NAM has the SLP over SAV and RGEM is 100 miles east at hour 33. That's huge...As we know if that LP is close to the coastline like depicted on the NAM, we will have mixing issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, griteater said: QPF on new GFS Not that far off from ggem! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbubba Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 I live in Southern Wake County and that snow/sleet line will be close if not over me. The NAM was the first model to show the warm nose that dashed our hopes for snow last year. I'm riding the GFS and REGM and hoping the low tracks further off the coast but current trends aren't my friend right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 wow lol, now that got my attention to finally make a post on the storm. I almost did with Burrells but this one did it and the reason is this...it seems to have that little ne ga/upstate "dip" which to me would be indicative of lookout's nightmare warm bubble for this area. even so, it is still showing a big dump of snow for ne ga and the upstate (i have been following the wx here long enough to know that the initial big accumulation maps several days out rarely hold up). i have also been burned by that bubble before and these maps coming out tonight - much closer to the event are giving me hope. the ones from i believe yesterday were pretty bad at times and it appeared that the cold air might not make it in time. that being said, this is a near perfect track for a big southern snowstorm and i have been holding out that it would start showing up and it finally has. the mountains can be helpful at times, but trying to get cold air to rush in over them before the heaviest, or even most, of the precip exits can be extremely difficult at times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, weatherbubba said: I live in Southern Wake County and that snow/sleet line will be close if not over me. The NAM was the first model to show the warm nose that dashed our hopes for snow last year. I'm riding the GFS and REGM and hoping the low tracks further off the coast but current trends aren't my friend right now. Well even the inferno that is the 12km NAM is all frozen for Raleigh. We will have to fight warm nose, that's a give but hopefully we can jack with a ton of QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The GFS is just not seeing the warm nose in ATL because lower resolution. No way with that SW flow is ATL snow before 04-05z Disagree. Dynamics and evap cooling will take care of that IMO. I think changeover happens about 03Z- which gives us time to get 4" or more after the sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
avalanche Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, rduwx said: That's huge...As we know if that LP is close to the coastline like depicted on the NAM, we will have mixing issues. Not only Apex/Garner/Morrisville, but Chapel Hill, Burlington, Graham, and maybe s/e side of Greensboro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 With rare exception, sleet most always overperforms - in other words, if there's just a chance of sleet, you're probably certain to see a bit of it. As I posted earlier, I don't see sleet as a bad thing. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 5 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: JB FWIW--- Tweets Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi 1m1 minute ago Think NAM will turn out closer Good. Because he sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Here is the precip accumulation map off the GFS. You can see that warm nose trying to ease up the East side of the state of GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 12 minutes ago, burrel2 said: I think it's a very good sign that the rgem is basically whipping out that low level warm bubble with no trouble. It looks like the hi-res Nam is making quick work of it as well. I think when heavy rates arrive friday night the warm area will be quickly overcome and only cost us maybe an inch of accumulation at most. It also helps that -850's are going to be in the -3 to -4 range for us(if modeled correctly). The key will be watching 925mb temps tomorrow afternoon on mesonalaysis. Also, the models seem to have the calm winds and thus warm surface air located a little to our west at the onset friday night. The worst spot for the warm bubble appears to be from about commerce, GA to right over Lookout's house. But if the rates are going to be as heavy as the rgem depicts, I think they will cash in too as long as they can stay below freezing at 850mb. To be honest I am more worried about the 800 to 850mb layers creeping up above zero on us. It always seems like warm advection in these layers goes 10 to 20 miles farther north than models show. Thanks. I agree about them being more northerly. And though the NW trend is helping with QPF, it's pushing that warmer air into us.we don't need anymore NW movement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 6 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: It depends on what part of Richland county you're in. I could see Irmo and Pontiac doing fairly well but down by the end of 77 seeing virtually nothing. Lexington Co is where the airport is sir 4 minutes ago, WintersNotComing said: Might go stay up with family in Irmo. Could see a big difference from there compared to downtown. The cutoff for make or break is so sharp. I see Newberry to Little Mountain to Winnsboro doing better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, Cheeznado said: Disagree. Dynamics and evap cooling will take care of that IMO. I think changeover happens about 03Z- which gives us time to get 4" or more after the sleet. I agree with SnowGoose.If you look at 850 mb wind maps, there's an obvious 850 low spinning across N GA and that's bringing warmer air into the lower levels from the southwest not to mention winds are around 14 kt or so...a lot higher than when you move away from the 850 low....I think this is what the RGEM and NAM are trying to show sadly. I hope you're right though, but I don't think so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, Cheeznado said: Good. Because he sucks. Hahahaha Agree with tarheelwx about sleet. When there is a chance of mixing here, usually more mixing occurs and for longer than forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 20 minutes ago, MotoWeatherman said: Per the GFS most of that QPF would not be snow but probably sleet. 850s don't crash below zero until 10-11pm or so. Actually they get down to 0 (wet bulb) at 03Z. Plenty of time to get 4-5" of snow, which is what I am thinking right now, But farther north up near Doraville etc they will get hammered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowinnc Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 13 minutes ago, Cary_Snow95 said: 24 hours to go and you would think we would be thrilled with the GFS showing 10". Instead we're all nervous and sick to our stomachs LOL. I'm gonna be nervous to pick up my phone in the morning and look at what happened over night. Regardless this has been a crazy storm to follow with you all. I just want to cover the ground nicely and let the cold swing in. Nothing like snow on the ground and playoff football fellas. Very well said! I'm hoping for the best but expecting the opposite! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Here's what I'm talking about here: http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=850wh&rh=2017010600&fh=27&r=conus&dpdt= The 850 low is spinning over North GA and right on Atlanta there are 19 kt winds going west/southwest. It's not until the 850 low move more east that the N/NW winds begin to filter back in more cold air. This is the NAM btw. That is what is killing Atlanta on these shorter range models.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Hahahaha Agree with tarheelwx about sleet. When there is a chance of mixing here, usually more mixing occurs and for longer than forecast. We knew a week ago how this was going to turn out right? 850 lows running up our fanny and me, you, and pack scratching and clawing to fight off elevated warm nostrils Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Hahahaha Agree with tarheelwx about sleet. When there is a chance of mixing here, usually more mixing occurs and for longer than forecast. Pretty much every winter storm I can remember the warm nose over performs. Boxing Day may be the last one we didn't taint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersNotComing Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said: Lexington Co is where the airport is sir I see Newberry to Little Mountain to Winnsboro doing better. Certainly see Newberry doing well. I'm thinking Irmo/Chapin could see around an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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