weatherfide Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, MississippiWx said: Can someone please explain to me what the heck the NAM is seeing here in South Ms? Why is it showing so much snow accumulation? Is it seeing an increase in ice accumulations or what? I believe that represents sleet and freezing rain in south MS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Keep in mind the tropical tidbit maps for the NAM do not distinguish between snow/sleet/zr so what you see as "snow" may be in fact sleet or zr. What the maps are useful for is showing whether it's trending colder or not. Increases in the "snow" totals reflect either higher qpf and/or colder temps aloft. When comparing the 00z vs 18z nam it in fact did trend higher with the totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 24hr Rgem... she's about to go boom!! Wonder why it's so much colder at the surface over the upstate compared to the NAM/GFS? I sure hope it's right as it's flipping GSP over to snow by 6pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: The NAM is the lowest total model for RDU and still shows 6 to 7 inches there. No it doesn't. Look at Allan's tweets. Once sleet is factored in it's 1-3" with an inch of sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 RGEM looks like the NAM. Significant qpf increase for wrn NC on the RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MississippiWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, weatherfide said: I believe that represents sleet and freezing rain in south MS. Thanks. I was thinking so too because we are only supposed to transition to snow at the very end. I'm concerned our ice accumulation could be more than expected? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 RGEM came in crazy wet....can't tell temps for a while though. Deeper low but track was simliar to 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Lord have mercy, I'm gonna have a heart attack looking at this!!! Rgem is suppose to be good with thermal profiles right??? BOOM!!!! 18z Image on bottom for comparison... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 RGEM hour 12 is MUCH colder for central nc like 5 degrees from 38 to 33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, burrel2 said: Lord have mercy, I'm gonna have a heart attack looking at this!!! Rgem is suppose to be good with thermal profiles right??? BOOM!!!! Trending to the NAM but looks colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowinnc Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: The NAM is the lowest total model for RDU and still shows 6 to 7 inches there. Brick, have you not paid attention to the NW shift? I'm obviously still a novice at reading these maps but to me that appears to be a no brainer. It looks like we are right on the line of rain and snow. There is no way we are going to get 4 to 7 inches of snow. Everyone else who lives in the triangle seems to be accepting fact that we are going to get mostly rain and sleet but yet you somehow you are still clinging on to those crazy totals. I wish I could be more positive but unfortunately I think I need to be more realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, Met1985 said: I'm trying not to argue with you. We still have a couple more runs left. The models at least for us have been all over the place and rock steady pretty much for other areas. We try to look at every negative movement or positive movement we can. Sorry for hoping we get some snow in the mountains. I believe fountainguy was directing his post towards someone else who said the LP shifted NW when it actually didn't. We all want to see snow but one thing I've learned that really helps is to separate the emotions of what I want vs what I want to see. It helps prevent getting let down and leads to better expectations as well. Overall I expect tonight and tomorrow we see a tick SE tonight and tomorrow as models lock in on the transition zone, timing, strength of the vort and adjust accordingly. Most storms I've ever tracked always have a "jackpot" zone 72 hours out, they shift NW about 30-48 hours out then go back SE within 24 hours of the event. So far this trend is taking place again and lends credence to the GFS. I hope it's right because it's a nice snow for about everyone in NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 rgem looks like all snow for rdu, great to see after the nightmareish run of the nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, Poimen said: RGEM looks like the NAM. Significant qpf increase for wrn NC on the RGEM. Hmmmmmm........ RGEM, NAM and SREF. Something is happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, burrel2 said: Lord have mercy, I'm gonna have a heart attack looking at this!!! Rgem is suppose to be good with thermal profiles right??? BOOM!!!! Lights out. Wow. Wonder what the snowfall accumulation map looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, MississippiWx said: Thanks. I was thinking so too because we are only supposed to transition to snow at the very end. I'm concerned our ice accumulation could be more than expected? Yes, tropical tidbits maps count ice as snow accumulations. Us folks in the NE/Mid Atlantic know this issue all too well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, burrel2 said: Lord have mercy, I'm gonna have a heart attack looking at this!!! Rgem is suppose to be good with thermal profiles right??? BOOM!!!! Holy cow! I think one of the Mets, hickory weather or snow goose, said rgem was a good clos range model!? I think it does do well with upper air temps!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, DopplerWx said: rgem looks like all snow for rdu, great to see after the nightmareish run of the nam. RGEM has precip getting to CLT by 2pm tomorrow. Not sure about temps yet...want to see thicknesses and 850's, it has to be warmer then 18z run with deeper low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shahroz98 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, mackerel_sky said: Holy cow! I think one of the Mets, hickory weather or snow goose, said rgem was a good clos range model!? I think it does do well with upper air temps!? It seems the Canadian Model fades away the warm nose, that should be good for GSP, in theory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 5 minutes ago, snowinnc said: Brick, have you not paid attention to the NW shift? I'm obviously still a novice at reading these maps but to me that appears to be a no brainer. It looks like we are right on the line of rain and snow. There is no way we are going to get 4 to 7 inches of snow. Everyone else who lives in the triangle seems to be accepting fact that we are going to get mostly rain and sleet but yet you somehow you are still clinging on to those crazy totals. I wish I could be more positive but unfortunately I think I need to be more realistic. I guess if you discount all the other models and how rock steady the GFS and GEFS have been. But seems like some always look for the worst case every time and discount all the other models. RGEM looks great, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, Brick Tamland said: I guess if you discount all the other models and how rock steady the GFS and GEFS have been. But seems like some always look for the worst case every time and discount all the other models. The rock steady RGEM just moved the rain/snow line northwest. And so will the rock steady GFS and the rock steady CMC and the rock steady European in just a little bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 One thing to remember is how amped the s/w was at the beginning of the 0z NAM run. If other models pick up on that, it makes the track that the NAM showed plausible. we've all seen that stronger storms track farther north, while weaker ones stay south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 RGEM thinks there should be 2" on the ground in charlotte by 7PM tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 thing that I am going to pay really close attention to is the heaviest qpf band that rolls through, Lookout pointed this out earlier today, because models are showing near 0c pockets at 850 during those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
palmettoweather Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Lord have mercy, I'm gonna have a heart attack looking at this!!! Rgem is suppose to be good with thermal profiles right??? BOOM!!!! 18z Image on bottom for comparison...Burrel, Rgem has done really well in our neck of the woods the last couple years, especially with CAD events. Definitely stands out in my mind how well it does with thermal profiles from when Lookout called that CAD event that FFC was late sounding the alarm on. I remember the RGEM doing a much better job than other guidance with temps. That particular frame looks awesome, especially for me in the Pendleton area. Sent from my SM-G920I using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 The SLP track exiting the gom off the se coast is the whole key now. Gfs has consistently been off shore through the gom and exiting stage right central florida coast. Hence why its been able to keep everyone colder. It's been on a island imo with the deepest track. Ukie and now every model has the SLP tracking tight along gulf coast and exiting jax north into atlantic. Interested to see gfs track of SLP here in a few minutes. That track effects everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shahroz98 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 I think CAE and BMX are out of the game at this point, as well as Macon,GA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 RGEM this run is just killing the upstate through Charlotte to Raleigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 RGEM Total QPF through 15z Saturday...BOOM!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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