RaleighWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Here is my view on the NAM. Could its overamped solution be correct? Sure. But the NAM and the SREF members all use the NCEP WRF ARW or NMM core. Thus they in essence have alot of similarities in physics schemes, parameterizations. Thus it isnt surprising to see them all showing a similar solution. For me to start really buying it, I would like to see the RGEM another mesoscale model show the same type of scenario. That would be a different model core showing it and that would be important. Also the globals, although the globals with a bit more coarse resolution can miss the warm nose strength, while the mesoscale models capture it better with their higher resolution. Taken literally the NAM would be quite the snow gradient across Wake County and the Triangle in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, fountainguy97 said: what you are forgetting is that the 18Z OP GFS stopped its NW trend and held firm. OP and Para have been step and step together so at 18z the para very very likely quit its NW trend Negative. The LP on the 18Z GFS moved 50-75 miles NW of the position on the 12Z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WFFaithful Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 29 minutes ago, superjames1992 said: The NAM is a Big Frosty special. Even the Triad looks close to mixing, it would seem. Yikes. The SREF plumes have Triad mixing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 How's the paranormal NAM looking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Yeah NAM is literally 1...maybe 2 degrees away from greatness for Atlanta. It's just the 850s that are the problem. The mid levels look fine to me. Don't see any problems with the 500-800mb layer. 925 layer looks fine as well. I've been on the wrong side of a rain/snow or snow/sleet storm many times though so we'll see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Negative. The LP on the 18Z GFS moved 50-75 miles NW of the position on the 12Z GFS interesting because you must be looking at another model than me it certaintly did not. maybe like 10 miles lol Hour 36 its 50 miles south hr 42 it may be like a millimeter eaast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 00z NAM looked good for me. I'd say about a foot of snow with some sleet. I can see some sleet coming in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, LovingGulfLows said: Yeah NAM is literally 1...maybe 2 degrees away from greatness for Atlanta. It's just the 850s that are the problem. The mid levels look fine to me. Don't see any problems with the 500-800mb layer. 925 layer looks fine as well. I've been on the wrong side of a rain/snow or rain/sleet storm many times though so we'll see... The NAM has it raining there til 02z, but I don't buy it based on the sounding. It looks like PL or even FZRA to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Regarding the NW trend - experience has taught me that when you see a large trend over time to the NW, there is often a slight adjustment back to the south at the end. Hang in there is you're near the southern edge. I think there will be some adjustment back to the south at some point. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Alchemist Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 6 minutes ago, burrel2 said: If the NAM winds up being close to accurate, we will definitely have to start taking the ole DWD Icon model serious. It's been showing this solution for several days now. I did some reading up on the ICON... "The predecessor of ICON was named GME"... Here is a link to the website... https://www.dwd.de/EN/research/weatherforecasting/num_modelling/01_num_weather_prediction_modells/icon_description.html It does seem to have been the model with the least amount of change the past several runs... Where is the best site to see maps? are they free? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Negative. The LP on the 18Z GFS moved 50-75 miles NW of the position on the 12Z GFS Yep it did. The precipitation field should have also. We will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdawg10 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 DT not biting on the NAM either..jackpots RDU and NE NC with 8-12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 01z HRRR was headed for glory at the end of its run Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, shahroz98 said: Greatness as in higher snow totals ? or minimal amounts of sleet ? Both. Sleet will quickly eat away at the available moisture vs. snow when it comes to accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, tarheelwx said: Regarding the NW trend - experience has taught me that when you see a large trend over time to the NW, there is often a slight adjustment back to the south at the end. Hang in there is you're near the southern edge. I think there will be some adjustment back to the south at some point. TW Yup, the big trend north late usually has a small trend back to normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Georgia Peeps, clown map for you from the 00Z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Yep it did. The precipitation field should have also. We will see. lol yeah guys it went NW.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shahroz98 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, HWY316wx said: Georgia Peeps, clown map for you from the 00Z NAM. Sharp cutoff in the screw zone near athens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, fountainguy97 said: I hope you get some snow bud. May we all cash in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJnVa Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 23 minutes ago, SteveVa said: NAM might just be NAM-ing me and now I'm on the southern fringe of high totals. Not complaining because it still has SE VA at 8-12". If GFS or Euro follow along tonight to a warmer solution for MBY I'll start sweating. NWS Wakefield is still not issuing wsw's even though we are around 24 hrs from the onset of precip. Hopefully my post won't be deleted again, I know it's a busy time however idk what rule did I break We might be "around 24 hours from onset" but we're not within 24 hours yet. It'll happen bright and early in morning I assume. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Tweets Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi 32s32 seconds ago Been counting on shift west ,so I have no problem with the NAM. has scored coups before. Blend of Dec 82/Feb 67 looks pretty good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, shahroz98 said: Sharp cutoff in the screw zone near athens Yep. That pesky warm nose is causing havoc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 So the NAM MOS has ATL 32/30 at 00Z and then they become 35/23 at 03Z with a north wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 7 minutes ago, LovingGulfLows said: Yeah NAM is literally 1...maybe 2 degrees away from greatness for Atlanta. It's just the 850s that are the problem. The mid levels look fine to me. Don't see any problems with the 500-800mb layer. 925 layer looks fine as well. I've been on the wrong side of a rain/snow or snow/sleet storm many times though so we'll see... It's interesting to see how the rain/snow line sets up in the Atlanta area......it always seems to cut the city roughly in half east/west or along I-85. Seen it too many times to count. If the NAM does come to fruition and temps are slightly too warm, it could really cut down on things down in your neck of the woods. Amazing how just about every single setup around here yield the same possibilities. - Buck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdawg10 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 DT, Panovich, Allan, Robert, and a few other Mets i follow have RDU in the jackpot zone or close to it. They know their stuff so i think we're all just overreacting a little due to past experiences.. too much has to go wrong for us to bust because the set up couldn't be more ripe for us to score big IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Allan Huffman posted the NAM SNOW AND SLEET maps. Said he isn't buying it until other models agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shahroz98 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, audioguy3107 said: It's interesting to see how the rain/snow line sets up in the Atlanta area......it always seems to cut the city roughly in half east/west or along I-85. Seen it too many times to count. If the NAM does come to fruition and temps are slightly too warm, it could really cut down on things down in your neck of the woods. Amazing how just about every single setup around here yield the same possibilities. - Buck Reminds me of Feb 25 2015 When the Cutoff was I-85. Points north got nice snow, just south got flurries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 24 minutes ago, packbacker said: 12z Para...hard to argue the NW trend inside 48. The NAM's are probably onto something...sucks for us in Raleigh but can't deny it. The NAM is the lowest total model for RDU and still shows 6 to 7 inches there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, Brick Tamland said: The NAM is the lowest total model for RDU and still shows 6 to 7 inches there. Not the newest NAM. The newest NAM has a 1-7" spread across Wake. only 7" in top sliver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MississippiWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 25 minutes ago, Timothy Clyde said: Where the NAM goes wrong..is further out in time it explodes Asheville mountain area with fantasy precip and shoves it north-west. Out to 26 looks right with little to nothing south-central VA, north-west NC, north-west GA, while the main areas pile up. Precip progression is key and the main areas see it first. Makes me doubt further out in time. Can someone please explain to me what the heck the NAM is seeing here in South Ms? Why is it showing so much snow accumulation? Is it seeing an increase in ice accumulations or what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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