NCSNOW Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, superjames1992 said: The NAM is a Big Frosty special. Even the Triad looks close to mixing, it would seem. Yikes. Never fails lol. Goes from 0 to jackpot on coastals like clockwork espeacilly if the run just inland by a hair, which is what just happened on the nam. I'd could see this happening, not to far fetched and it will screw the. Coastal plain till backside. But caution it's nam and sref, they are one of the same family. Need more evidence before buying this sharper tit to the trough. Both options are on the table still. Nam has been to fast and that's why we haven't seen it spit out one of its extreme runs. It finally slowed down the sw, had time to deepen and turn sharper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, LovingGulfLows said: All this NAM run was confirm to me personally that if the actual low pressure center comes in any farther South than what the NAM is modeling, Atlanta will be getting a very nice snow storm. That or hope the high pressure to the north is stronger than modeled or further to the southeast. The low levels will be cold enough. Its the mid level warmth. It may end up mostly a sleet event there not changing to snow til 07-08z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Snowfall map through hour 45 - looking good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Looks like the 0z NAM just gave the GFS a big bear hug -- if that verified this board will be a very happy place! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 So the SREF and NAM seem to have some agreement with all this being much further west right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 4km nam looks very similar on the surface to the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Nam was gorgeous for atl and north in ga. Widespread 3-5" totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, CaryWx said: So the SREF and NAM seem to have some agreement with all this being much further west right? About half the SREF is made up of a NAMesque suite so this is not a surprise, or really an indication where the 0z globals or RGEM will go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, wxdawg10 said: The NAM shows a cold rainstorm for most of us here in NC. i think you can toss it. you guys should be good Looks like 6-12 inches to me. Check ajr's post above for the snowfall map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, Timothy Clyde said: Don't get your hopes up seriously doubt this for north-west precip shield MTNS/Foothills/VA. Too much. The positioning isn't far fetched at all. Not saying the LP would be quite this far inland, but it's not like it hasn't happened many times before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveVa Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 NAM might just be NAM-ing me and now I'm on the southern fringe of high totals. Not complaining because it still has SE VA at 8-12". If GFS or Euro follow along tonight to a warmer solution for MBY I'll start sweating. NWS Wakefield is still not issuing wsw's even though we are around 24 hrs from the onset of precip. Hopefully my post won't be deleted again, I know it's a busy time however idk what rule did I break Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shahroz98 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, wxdawg10 said: The NAM shows a cold rainstorm for most of us here in NC. i think you can toss it. you guys should be good Alrighty thats good, FFC currently shows 4-6 in my area ( around Lawrenceville) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timothy Clyde Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Where the NAM goes wrong..is further out in time it explodes Asheville mountain area with fantasy precip and shoves it north-west. Out to 26 looks right with little to nothing south-central VA, north-west NC, north-west GA, while the main areas pile up. Precip progression is key and the main areas see it first. Makes me doubt further out in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 12z Para...hard to argue the NW trend inside 48. The NAM's are probably onto something...sucks for us in Raleigh but can't deny it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Brad P went live and his bullseye jackpot seems to be southern wake and just south of Raleigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PGAWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Great amount of contradiction happening this evening (posters and models). Not sure what to think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 8 minutes ago, WeatherNC said: About half the SREF is made up of a NAMesque suite so this is not a surprise, or really an indication where the 0z globals or RGEM will go. I said same thing in my post and to re emphasize sref and nam are 1 in 2 , 2 in 1 same family, so everyone would be wise to wait for more evidence from other models before tipping the hat. I will say this though the nam and sref really throw suport to trough axis sfl placement in the ukmet and that german model camp. Now thermal profiles that's always impossible to nail exactly this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 The You got NAM'd memes should be prepared before the RGEM and GFS come in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Should I start worrying about sleet yet? It seems lke climo tends to favor a sneaky warm nose, but I guess the NAM track or north of that isn't especially likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, packbacker said: 12z Para...hard to argue the NW trend inside 48. The NAM's are probably onto something...sucks for us in Raleigh but can't deny it. The way I'm thinking about it is we may get some mixing, but that's due to getting more moisture on shore - the jackpots are very close to us.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdawg10 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, packbacker said: 12z Para...hard to argue the NW trend inside 48. The NAM's are probably onto something...sucks for us in Raleigh but can't deny it. The NW trend is happening but i really think the NAM is too far NW. i remember models showing the heaviest precip to our southeast. it's slowly moved up in our direction. Unless the Euro and GFS cave to the NAM i wont take it seriously Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Where the NAM goes wrong..is further out in time it explodes Asheville mountain area with fantasy precip and shoves it north-west. Out to 26 looks right with little to nothing south-central VA, north-west NC, north-west GA, while the main areas pile up. Precip progression is key and the main areas see it first. Makes me doubt further out in time.That's not fantasy precip, I mentioned several days ago to keep an eye out for a finger of precip that could extend out from the main batch. This happened with the Dec '10 storm for the Mtn's and foothills adding to the totals drastically. Some folks in the Mtn's and foothills may get 1-3" before the main show even arrives and that's what the NAM is showing. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, ajr said: The way I'm thinking about it is we may get some mixing, but that's due to getting more moisture on shore - the jackpots are very close to us.. I have little doubt the triangle will mix, especially in SE Wake but the NAM's are almost all sleet, and a shout away from rain. I was hoping for 50/50 mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 The NAM increase qpf to .75-1" west of RDU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 The NW trend always happens but because this is a south storm, it tends to stabilize. Maybe at the end it does a coastal move. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 5 minutes ago, wxdawg10 said: The NW trend is happening but i really think the NAM is too far NW. i remember models showing the heaviest precip to our southeast. it's slowly moved up in our direction. Unless the Euro and GFS cave to the NAM i wont take it seriously what you are forgetting is that the 18Z OP GFS stopped its NW trend and held firm. OP and Para have been step and step together so at 18z the para very very likely quit its NW trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 About the mixing - I don't see that as such a bad thing. Sure a boatload of snow is cool. However, my experience has taught me that the same qpf of sleet takes longer to melt than the same qpf of snow. Also, the sleet makes for much better sledding. So, I don't put as much distinction between snow and sleet as most. Enjoy whatever you get. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 I'm not biting on the 0z NAM until I see some other support..... Seen this too many times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 If the NAM winds up being close to accurate, we will definitely have to start taking the ole DWD Icon model serious. It's been showing this solution for several days now. I don't know about you guys, but I'm on pin and needles waiting for the rgem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 So if anybody gets a period of sleet, that may make the snow accumulation better or quicker, with a nice , icy base layer!? If there is a snow transition!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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