lilj4425 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, snowlover91 said: I've seen the SREF used in many storms on here in past years... it gives a false hope and many times is WAY off so I wouldn't put much stock in it at this point. RGEM and GFS/Euro combo are tough to beat imo especially under 36 hours. Tell GSP NWS that. They love the SREF and have a pretty good track record. The SREF members for GSP have anymore from zero to twelve inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 NAM made an interesting shift. Eagerly awaiting GFS 0z run now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 I'm having trouble putting much faith into the SREF plumes, in general. They seem to tend to have a lot of outliers on either end wrt snowfall output. For example, the 21z SREF plumes for the Person County Airport station (which I'm using because it's the closest to my location) has about 4-5 members showing very little snow (<1") and 4-5 showing more than 16". This seems to happen with every notable storm here, and it tends to balance out in the end, but that's not really how I'd want to be achieving that sort of end result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Touchet Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 9 minutes ago, rdwhynot said: Latest Plume for KBHM... A few showing some nice accumulations. Okay, need help with this one. Does the clusters of data points at the lower end mean that most members fall between 0 and 2 (7 total), and then 4 between 2 and 4, then 2 between 4 and 6, finally 1 at 6-8 then the other at just over 10? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TiltedStorm Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 KGSP bumps up snow totals in the upstate sc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 I would probably take the median of all of the SREF plumes and not the mean because they can obviously be skewed by 1 or 2 big members. That would give you a "50% of scenarios has snow higher than this and 50% lower than this". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 nam at 27 is slightly colder, snow line a bit south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nomanslandva Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Roa has 13 member above the mean and 8 below and like I said, 1 was 0. I do not trust it because it gave me some snow on some storm in the past couple of years that just did not happen but this is a big jump late. Also, at least the last two para hi-res and 4k NAM runs were better here than the normal runs so if it is the NAM on crack, it is the whole NAM family. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, lilj4425 said: Tell GSP NWS that. They love the SREF and have a pretty good track record. The SREF members for GSP have anymore from zero to twelve inches. Every year this happens when we get a snow threat within 72 hours, people pull out the SREF and get their hopes up. Most times it disappoints. I've found over the years the RGEM is one of the best models inside 36 hours especially with transition zones and qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 NAM better consolidated on the low and now blossoming QPF over MS/AL/GA. Good to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdawg10 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Like others have said, don't buy into SREF just yet. That much of a shift in the track and pulling the low up the east coast seems a little out there when there are so many reasons why that shouldn't happen. The Globals have all held serve. I still think a blend of the EURO/GFS is still the most likely outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, Timothy Clyde said: I wouldn't expect much more than a Trace to 2" for you when all is said and done. I'm not, My expectations have and remain low with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 @33, heavy snow RDU points west. LP on the SC coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 NAM looks to up the totals a bit here and in WNC vs. 18z - but some of that looks to be sleet in the Upstate. Still going at 33 though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 out to 33 and similar to the 18z, really amped up, wnc special and rdu rain to sleet pretty much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 NAM is crushing N GA/E TN/ W NC at 30 hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, Wow said: @33, heavy snow RDU points west. LP on the SC coast. points west? How far west?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, BIG FROSTY said: points west? How far west?? You're in it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Moto check out the nam!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 13 minutes ago, wxdawg10 said: Folks in RDU and points east sweating it out right now.. Nah the NAM is the NAM, even the para NAM disagrees with it or at least it did at 18Z, it also has a well known bias to over amplify storms in the 24-36 hr range....if the 00Z GFS suddenly jumps ship then I will sweat since its been rock stready more or less since Tuesday..... the RGEM which is a much better short term model IMO has trended back SE with its snow totals and the GFS absolutely destroys us.....still expecting 6-12" here east of RDU..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Glad sref gets MA involved. Maybe they'll turn storm mode on now. Sites really slowing down on my end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 The NAM is a Big Frosty special. Even the Triad looks close to mixing, it would seem. Yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, downeastnc said: Nah the NAM is the NAM, even the para NAM disagrees with it or at least it did at 18Z, it also has a well known bias to over amplify storms in the 24-36 hr range....if the 00Z GFS suddenly jumps ship then I will sweat since its been rock stready more or less since Tuesday..... the RGEM which is a much better short term model IMO has trended back SE with its snow totals and the GFS absolutely destroys us.....still expecting 6-12" here east of RDU..... im not too concerned seeing that literally every gefs ens member/euro ens member/rgem disagrees with the nam. truly on an island. like i said in the sanitarium, if it nails this it will be the coup of the century. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillerA Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 NAM drops about 10-12" in the Triad per the kuchera method. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 2 hours ago, Wow said: 3 minutes ago, superjames1992 said: The NAM is a Big Frosty special. Even the Triad looks close to mixing, it would seem. Yikes. Since the NAM initialized 5 degrees warm here, might want to check and see if it did so elsewhere. Not sure what difference it would make, but it started us at 48 degrees ... where it's 43 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 All this NAM run was confirm to me personally that if the actual low pressure center comes in any farther South than what the NAM is modeling, Atlanta will be getting a very nice snow storm. That or hope the high pressure to the north is stronger than modeled or further to the southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdawg10 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, MillerA said: This makes me feel alot better knowing it's coming from Robert Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDeac Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Wow, the NAM gives Davidson/Lake Norman around 8 inches and Fort Mill/Rock Hill almost nothing. Such is life in the CLT metro area in the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timothy Clyde Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Don't get your hopes up seriously doubt this for north-west precip shield MTNS/Foothills/VA. Too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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