beanskip Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Wow, 0z NAM at just 6 hours significantly stronger with s/w vs. 18z run at 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btownheel Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 This thing has every indicator that the real big dogs have shown. Great, great track. Reel it in baby.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Tad slower at 6 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 SREF amped up big time Snow probabilities blew up and really go north. >12" snow probs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jenkins Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 SREF mean 1.34" QPF at KCLT. Not that I trust it but it's fun to look at Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Stronger at 6... 540 line still trending back west into it. RAP trends confirmed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Nam initialize my area (pitt county/ Greenville NC) at 41 degrees the previous run for that time frame had us at 45 so that's a 4 degree error only 6 hours out... Hard to trust temp profile when its that off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Looking at SREF plumes, from 15z to 21z: Hickory went from 5.93" to 8.20" mean with two big dogs of 23.3" and a total of 9 over 10" Charlotte went from 4.37" to 5.15" mean with a big dog of 19.18" and a total of 6 over 8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 No map, but here's what I'm thinking... Going to post a 5 to 10 min video w/ analysis afterwhile on my fb page... Snow/Sleet Totals Effective 12pm Friday to 12am Sunday Atlanta,GA = 1-3 Athens,GA = 1-3 Asheville,NC = 1-3Greenville,SC = 2-4 Hickory,NC = 2-4 Charlotte,NC = 4-6 Davidson,NC = 4-6 Columbia,SC = Trace-1 Greensboro,NC = 4-8 Raleigh,NC = 6-10 Greenville NC = 3-5 Roanoke Rapids,NC = 8-12 Richmond,VA = 3-5 DC = Trace-1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Plumes up to 10 here? What tha heck?????????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 SREF is going for a big phasing event. Pulls the low up the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rdwhynot Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Latest Plume for KBHM... A few showing some nice accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, BIG FROSTY said: Plumes up to 10 here? What tha heck?????????? Just checked out the individual member panels and they are obscene! It's a classic Miller A phased storm. Get's up into the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 the NAM was really the only mode with that solution and the PARA NAM didn't have it... So NAM remains an outlier unless other models start going that way. no biggie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Here's just ONE frame of ONE of the SREF members. *faint* Although the 850 line ain't right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, Wow said: Just checked out the individual member panels and they are obscene! It's a classic Miller A phased storm. Get's up into the NE. Wow, WOW!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 SREF plume Mean remains lackluster for KATL considering everyone else's is jumping so much all of a sudden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, Wow said: Just checked out the individual member panels and they are obscene! It's a classic Miller A phased storm. Get's up into the NE. Yeah, a lot of phased solutions there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, Wow said: Just checked out the individual member panels and they are obscene! It's a classic Miller A phased storm. Get's up into the NE. Wow. Also, the above 12" map you posted should make a lot of folks happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDeac Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 The phased/amped solution huggint the coast is going to produce a lot more rain/sleet for the CLT metro and upstate unless I'm missing something. Great for the Triad and points north and west though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 To this old codger's eyes, pretty significant changes through just 18 hours on the 0z NAM. Major strengthening of s/w vs 18z run and already better tilt than that run as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, HKY_WX said: No map, but here's what I'm thinking... Going to post a 5 to 10 min video w/ analysis afterwhile on my fb page... Snow/Sleet Totals Effective 12pm Friday to 12am Sunday Atlanta,GA = 1-3 Athens,GA = 1-3 Asheville,NC = 1-3Greenville,SC = 2-4 Hickory,NC = 2-4 Charlotte,NC = 4-6 Davidson,NC = 4-6 Columbia,SC = Trace-1 Greensboro,NC = 4-8 Raleigh,NC = 6-10 Greenville NC = 3-5 Roanoke Rapids,NC = 8-12 Richmond,VA = 3-5 DC = Trace-1 Wow, I don't recall ever being in the jackpot zone before. lol Sweet! Doubt it stays that way, but this thing has my attention. Will be making some preparations tomorrow. I do like the modeled placement of the high - saw a 1030 show up in NY state, and the modeled track of the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sarcean Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 FWIW it is saying mean of 8.91 for GSO on the plumes which I would be more then happy with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 There SREF plumes remind of what it did in the Feb '14 storm. Was way too wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdawg10 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Folks in RDU and points east sweating it out right now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 I've seen the SREF used in many storms on here in past years... it gives a false hope and many times is WAY off so I wouldn't put much stock in it at this point. RGEM and GFS/Euro combo are tough to beat imo especially under 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, Wow said: There SREF plumes remind of what it did in the Feb '14 storm. Was way too wet. Yep, They are always that way here!! taking it with a boulder of salt. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowinnc Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, wxdawg10 said: Folks in RDU and points east sweating it out right now.. Seems like we always do! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Funny SREF anecdote: I think it was either last year or the year before that it had EVERY SINGLE MEMBER over 4" for me right before the event and I got 2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, Wow said: There SREF plumes remind of what it did in the Feb '14 storm. Was way too wet. Yea, don't take these verbatim, but it is interesting to see the ticks upward. CLT is right on the line but most members increased snow totals. SREF has burned us too many times to get hyped over what it spits out lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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