CherokeeGA Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 FFC's latest graphic, perhaps some nerves will be calmed: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, sakau2007 said: Is the cold air getting here sooner than forecasted? Nashville is already at 29, Florence, AL (NW corner of the state) is at 34 and Cullman, AL (about 50 miles north of Birmingham) is down to 38. Birmingham is sitting at 47 but the subfreezing temps look like they will invade northern Alabama fairly soon? Also some light blue returns showing up on radar over northern AL though I don't think there is any ground truth. Yeah, I heard they are getting reports. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 29 minutes ago, superjames1992 said: I wouldn't be surprised to see some really amped runs of the HRRR and RAP which are warm and put the bullseye in the mountains in the closing hours before the storm. These models tend to be really amped in theIr "long" range, so I wouldn't worry about it, though. I'm using the RAP to verify the initializations of the regional and global models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Did anyone else notice that the coastal low on 18z was closer to coast than the 12z at the same time on GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Did anyone else notice that the coastal low on 18z was closer to coast than the 12z at the same time on GFS? Yes, but the precip shield did not reflect it. I would imagine future runs, if low is in similar location, will show a more expansive precip shield to the NWSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY1894 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 37 minutes ago, SN_Lover said: SW is really digging currently in CA. This system might be a doozy. Can you link the map you're looking at? I don't know where to find a 500mb map showing current conditions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, HKY1894 said: Can you link the map you're looking at? I don't know where to find a 500mb map showing current conditions I usually look at the spc website for that sort of thing but there may be somewhere better, idk. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 6 minutes ago, AirNelson39 said: Yes, but the precip shield did not reflect it. I would imagine future runs, if low is in similar location, will show a more expansive precip shield to the NW Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk That is my thinking it maybe better back to the west just wait till next run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 hour ago, Wow said: Some good news on the ICON is it moved heavier precip back NW, although you can see some lee side minimums show up As a member of the LEE side crew.. This is a constant battle. 5 minutes ago, HKY1894 said: Can you link the map you're looking at? I don't know where to find a 500mb map showing current conditions http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=19 Use the top tab to toggle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Arpege is wet and cold here. verbatim it looks to be dropping close to a foot on my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 2 hours ago, DopplerWx said: goodness, gefs is a thing of beauty. Ift he GFS is wrong it is epically wrong, thats just insane agreement...has anyone ever seen a panel like that before for NC......E15 needs to be the correct one....sticking to my 6-12" call for MBY....if we get mixing issues then "only" 6" if we keep that mixing at bay then closer to 12"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, ncstatered21 said: Is anyone noticing temperatures tonight in the RDU area? Temperatures looking lower than forecasted from earlier today. This can only help tomorrow. No? Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Wont really matter that much the cold tomorrow is from a different source, it will help though by cooling surfaces etc.....but it wont make or break anything with the main event Sat..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, burrel2 said: Arpege is wet and cold here. verbatim it looks to be dropping close to a foot on my house. Would be epic sir. Epic. Has been very wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 10 minutes ago, strongwxnc said: Would be epic sir. Epic. Has been very wet. French: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY1894 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Wave definitely looks healthy on the map you guys linked, gonna try to see if the models are initializing correctly, minor differences have huge implications one way or another Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Touchet Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Sprinkles in Bham. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Lol... sref up to 8 inches here that an increase from 5 earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, FirstTimeCaller said: Who wants to take the lead on the NAM pbp? Go for it, FTC. Proper warm-up approach is to say west warm west warm west warm west warm 50 times! This cycle really should see the NAM get in line or other models start to cave. I would expect only minor adjustments to the shortwave track and speed after the 0Zs come in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nancy Drew Mysteries Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 It is my understanding that NW GA (so I guess AL) will be getting some light rain/sleet/snow tonight, but this is not the precipitation the forecasts are working from for tomorrow. That will be coming from the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: Lol... sref up to 8 inches here that an increase from 5 earlier. LOL...the mean is 9" in GSO now. The 00z NAM may be about to come in insanely amped/NW, if that's any indication. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobertRath Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 hour ago, SN_Lover said: SW is really digging currently in CA. This system might be a doozy. Would this have an affect on earlier development of the low? I.e. More moisture for northern AL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, superjames1992 said: LOL...the mean is 9" in GSO now. The 00z NAM may be about to come in insanely amped/NW, if that's any indication. I hope so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Good many lightning strikes in S.Utah at the moment,so there is energy. Just an observation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nomanslandva Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 SREF to 10 here now from about 6. Something changed. I tried to not look at SREF....I really did. Interesting. One member has zip still...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, Cary_Snow95 said: What's it have for RDU Around 5" for RDU and CLT, IIRC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, Cary_Snow95 said: What's it have for RDU SREF avg at RDU just below 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 21z SREF plumes are pretty sick for GSO, mean went from 6 to 9" compared to 15z. RDU mean went from 5 to 4 and RWI 5 to about 3. RIC mean is now over a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, TiltedStorm said: sref link? http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplumes/ Mean QPF is like 1.5" for RDU with mean snow of like 5", indicating mixing issues. Took the SREFs with a mountain of salt when they showed something good, so I can take them with a mountain of salt now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 SREF sharpening up the wave. Trend continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, sarcean said: what is the realistic expectation of GSO? Can I safely count on over 6" at this point? I wouldn't count on it yet...but maybe 3-6"...unless we see a further NW trend,. The 9" mean on the latest SREF has me thinking maybe a big dog is in the cards, though. The SREF is usually pretty good at this range, so maybe 6"+ is more likely than I think. 2 minutes ago, TiltedStorm said: sref link? http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplumes/ You can select any airport from that link. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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