Cheeznado Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Just now, MotoWeatherman said: How does it look up further up in North GA? (cough cough...Dahlonega) Right in the heavier band Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 4 minutes ago, Wow said: bueno For you maybe. Bad for people east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 7 minutes ago, Cheeznado said: Latest RPM has all of the Atlanta metro from I 20 north in 2-5". The snow line is well south of CLT and RDU. CAE rain, GSP close but snow. CAE all rain through the duration? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Just now, Cary_Snow95 said: For you maybe. Bad for people east Not necessarily. Could slow down and allow more HP to build in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, Cheeznado said: Right in the heavier band How are the accumulations for Charlotte? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Just now, Wow said: Not necessarily. Could slow down and allow more HP to build in. Yeah if it slows down. Nam had it super early it seemed like. RGEM and GFS seem to be identical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottk Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Man, our forecast in NE SC has gone from snow to mix but I'm starting to think we get nothing but rain...Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 5 minutes ago, Wow said: Not necessarily. Could slow down and allow more HP to build in. I'd imagine a stronger SW would speed it up right or keep it constant when it comes to speed. Regardless, I don't think a HP would help people closer to the coast in SC/NC once this thing begins to ramp up in the Atlantic if it's too close to them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 hour ago, griteater said: Liquid Equiv amounts....razor tight Verbatim that would really stink for those of us NW of 85, but remember, this is just a model run. Precipitation placement is probably the worst modeled of all aspects of a storm, no model knows where precious and banding will be. I'm way more concerned about the stinking warm nose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Sisk Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 25 minutes ago, burrel2 said: Is it showing the hartwell warm bubble screw zone? Or the Duke Power Plant dry zone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Some good news on the ICON is it moved heavier precip back NW, although you can see some lee side minimums show up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 49 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Agreed! I think 1-3" is a good call for GSP metro! When local Mets and GSP, are going 3-6", I would be very leery! Mack, you and Dr. Franklin and I are on the same wavelength. Been thinking about the 2014 and 2015 storms all day. Both trended bigger the last 48 and had totals rising, but both came in with way more mixing and tougher warm nose. Instead of big snow totals we got a couple inches of slop both times. This has that written all over it. 1-3 W of Greenville, 2-5 East if we're lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, Wow said: Some good news on the ICON is it moved heavier precip back NW, although you can see some lee side minimums show up To my eye temps looks good from CLT-RDU along I-85 west, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, ajr said: To my eye temps looks good from CLT-RDU along I-85 west, right? close, but yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Here's a comparison of all the models for RDU - can see NAM is the warm outlier (not by much though). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nomanslandva Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 If there is a warm nose modeled, in most cases in the recent past, it is stronger than the modeled soundings show. A couple of other things. There were some posts of the Euro 00z and 12Z and it shifted west a hair and the angle also shifted. It will be telling to see if we get any more shift or if the GEFS seemingly shifting back a bit shows the end of the NW trend. And that sharp cut off to the west on most models is killing me. Got to say I am pulling for the hires NAM. Congrats to all on the board too. You made the NCEP look faster than TT for a while today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 I wouldn't be surprised to see some really amped runs of the HRRR and RAP which are warm and put the bullseye in the mountains in the closing hours before the storm. These models tend to be really amped in theIr "long" range, so I wouldn't worry about it, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 SW is really digging currently in CA. This system might be a doozy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthWake33 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, SN_Lover said: SW is really digging currently in CA. This system might be a doozy. Which model are we tracking right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlaringSun Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 WSB has 3-4 inches drawn for my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthernUpstateSC Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said: Anybody see the dreaded warm nose, near GSP? Would we sleet for awhile? I'm worried about ground temps too! Sitting at 47, with thick cloud cover! Only supposed T to get to 39 tonight! I know mack... that warm nose really concerns me as well. Just got through watching the Nizz on the weather channel they had our accumulation in western upstate down to 2 inches.... Not changing over until around midnight or so. I know some of the moderators on here the last couple of days were thinking (or hoping) that it would not be as stout and might not be that big of an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Westendsnowguy Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 6 minutes ago, SouthWake33 said: Which model are we tracking right now? Observation of whats actually happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TiltedStorm Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, NorthernUpstateSC said: I know mack... that warm nose really concerns me as well. Just got through watching the Nizz on the weather channel they had our accumulation in western upstate down to 2 inches.... Not changing over until around midnight or so. I know some of the moderators on here the last couple of days were thinking (or hoping) that it would not be as stout and might not be that big of an issue. I think we will know a lot more right up till the event tomorrow. When we start watching radar returns and sfc temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 "It's now time!!!!" edit: might be time for an observation thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sakau2007 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Is the cold air getting here sooner than forecasted? Nashville is already at 29, Florence, AL (NW corner of the state) is at 34 and Cullman, AL (about 50 miles north of Birmingham) is down to 38. Birmingham is sitting at 47 but the subfreezing temps look like they will invade northern Alabama fairly soon? Also some light blue returns showing up on radar over northern AL though I don't think there is any ground truth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Obs thread is up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 weather update on FB live shortly if yall want to come by and say hello and talk about the storm. https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, Isopycnic said: "It's now time!!!!" edit: might be time for an observation thread. In the spirit of now time let's make an effort to stay on topic and read before posting. Up to this point, 1276 posts have been deleted from this thread by your friendly overworked moderators. It would be nice if that would slow down a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthernUpstateSC Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, TiltedStorm said: I think we will know a lot more right up till the event tomorrow. When we start watching radar returns and sfc temps. I think it was lookout that said yesterday got to have a NE flow of cold air and not the cold coming up and over the mountains and downsloping that causes the warm air bubble... Lets hope a good stiff NE breeze kicks in tomorrow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BassPro Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, sakau2007 said: Is the cold air getting here sooner than forecasted? Nashville is already at 29, Florence, AL (NW corner of the state) is at 34 and Cullman, AL (about 50 miles north of Birmingham) is down to 38. Birmingham is sitting at 47 but the subfreezing temps look like they will invade northern Alabama fairly soon? Flurries have been reported in Hamilton and Winfield per JP Dice... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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