RobertRath Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Trying to learn here... what's causing the lack of moisture back into Northern AL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, NC_WX10 said: HKY_WX will you be putting out a map tonight? Yea, i'll post one after while and video run down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Just now, HKY_WX said: Yea, i'll post one afterwhile on my facbook page as well as a video run down. Hoping to have that done in a few hours. Awesome!! I've always enjoyed your input. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Anybody see the dreaded warm nose, near GSP? Would we sleet for awhile? I'm worried about ground temps too! Sitting at 47, with thick cloud cover! Only supposed T to get to 39 tonight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 6 minutes ago, NC_WX10 said: Awesome!! I've always enjoyed your input. Thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 8 minutes ago, RobertRath said: Trying to learn here... what's causing the lack of moisture back into Northern AL? Basically the surface low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico does not form and start drawing moisture up from the gulf onto the continental land mass until it is well east of you. That is at least part of it, and the gist of it. Mets can explain in more detail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 16 minutes ago, SN_Lover said: On satellite you can see the SW already tilting. Really beautiful. Models keep trying to slow it down, but it's not working in reality. You sure? Just did a comparison of 500 mb analysis at 12z today and compared with a latest 0z run GFS. The GFS seem to have the SW slightly less positively tilted than the actual surface analysis of the SW at 12z. Maybe I'm not reading it right....hmmm. EDIT: Also heights seem to be slightly higher in the East than the latest 0z GFS run. Indicates that the storm is likely to be more north of that particular run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 The GEFS is a big hit for the enire state of NC save the immediate coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 18z RGEM total snow, sleet, frz rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 4th run in a row with the gfs getting rdu down to -10 mon morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drfranklin Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 11 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Anybody see the dreaded warm nose, near GSP? Would we sleet for awhile? I'm worried about ground temps too! Sitting at 47, with thick cloud cover! Only supposed T to get to 39 tonight! Yes, I expect more mixing here (IMO, this is somehwhat similar to the winter storm 1-2 years prior where I-85 was dividing line between more sleet/rain) I'm not native to the Upstate - never seen so much sleet in my life Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 GEFS went a little less in the far Western area of NC and decreased a little near the border in the triad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 7 minutes ago, Jet Stream Rider said: Basically the surface low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico does not form and start drawing moisture up from the gulf onto the continental land mass until it is well east of you. That is at least part of it, and the gist of it. Mets can explain in more detail. Area "3" is what we call a dry slot. See Bluestein (1993) for more information. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 goodness, gefs is a thing of beauty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Just now, drfranklin said: Yes, I expect more mixing here (IMO, this is very similar to the winter storm 1-2 years prior where I-85 was dividing line between more sleet/rain) I'm not native to the Upstate - never seen so much sleet in my life Agreed! I think 1-3" is a good call for GSP metro! When local Mets and GSP, are going 3-6", I would be very leery! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: goodness, gefs is a thing of beauty. This looks very good for wnc, all show snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 5 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: goodness, gefs is a thing of beauty. Blend that with the NAM and call it a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Should we start a "bust" "screw zone" thread? I guarantee there will be some folks sitting in bulls eye that get hosed somewhere. No bulls eye here in NW SC be lucky to get our 1-3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 also with the rgem I noticed it trended much colder in eastern areas. up to 3 degrees colder for some places at the 850mb level that's a big jump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, oconeexman said: Should we start a "bust" "screw zone" thread? I guarantee there will be some folks sitting in bulls eye that get hosed somewhere. No bulls eye here in NW SC be lucky to get our 1-3". Something will go wrong. It always does whether it be a warm nose, lack of qpf due to convection at the gulf coast, ground temp issues, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 NW wave coming in stronger. 18z NAM vs. RAP valid 0z 1/6 (which is in about 45 min) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CherokeeGA Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, oconeexman said: Should we start a "bust" "screw zone" thread? I guarantee there will be some folks sitting in bulls eye that get hosed somewhere. No bulls eye here in NW SC be lucky to get our 1-3". Isn't that what the "Sanitarium" thread is for? I expect to be there anyway. ;p Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Latest RPM has all of the Atlanta metro from I 20 north in 2-5". The snow line is well south of CLT and RDU. CAE rain, GSP close but snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, Wow said: NW wave coming in stronger. 18z NAM vs. RAP valid 0z 1/6 (which is in about 45 min) Good or bad thing that it's coming in stronger than the models predicted? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, lilj4425 said: Good or bad thing? bueno Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, Cheeznado said: Latest RPM has all of the Atlanta metro from I 20 north in 2-5". The snow line is well south of CLT and RDU. CAE rain, GSP close but snow. Is it showing the hartwell warm bubble screw zone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 4 minutes ago, Cheeznado said: Latest RPM has all of the Atlanta metro from I 20 north in 2-5". The snow line is well south of CLT and RDU. CAE rain, GSP close but snow. How does it look up further up in North GA? (cough cough...Dahlonega) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Just now, burrel2 said: Is it showing the hartwell warm bubble screw zone? Kind of, less snow there but no rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Stronger SW means the low will be closer to the coast so it throws more precip to the north and west sides of the system....great if you're in the WNC, Upstate SC or far N Georgia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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