Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 2 minutes ago, SN_Lover said: New England gets snow, therefore it must be right! 12Z GFS para is snow to ice in immediate CAD areas of NC only. Taken at face value. Big high parked over Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 17 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: What's the 2nd blue line, behind the 850 line? 2m or surface temp I believe. Might be wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 4 minutes ago, Wow said: 12z GFS Parallel does something new and brings the s/w along further north and than does a late phase ala Jan 2000 but further north Is there anything that tells us this solution is wrong? If not it has to be added to the possibilities. Still think we need to get to Wednesday or so before we get a good idea. **on a related note, with the differences in the models and the continued changes; expect the next few runs to have different solutions (good or bad). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 2 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: 12Z GFS para is snow to ice in immediate CAD areas of NC only. Taken at face value. Big high parked over Canada. With a 1047 high in perfect placement, could get ugly in CAD areas. Surface temps and qpf cells are jacked up. Synoptically, this is a nice setup. Snow to ice then to snow. Postcard perfect images. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 2cnd blue line is -10. Much cold at 850 and great ratios, none of this 7 to 1 crap. Guys weber made a valid point right before the 18z gfs ran. The lakes cutter has been modeled to set up shop at Hudson Bay for our 50/50. Well guess what it's now off coast of Maine. Probably 150 miles east of where it's been forecasted to be. Sure this has at a minimum changed the trough axis some and allowed amplification or will allow perhaps more than being shown. Hope Grit sees this post and can chime in on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Still plenty of time to sample this storm.... I think starting tonight , 0z will tell, maybe not what will happen exactly, but what direction we are heading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 So if we have our s/w coming down the only question left is does arctic wave swing down into the NE to force the s/w southeast and develop or does the arctic wave hang back and phase in with our storm and end up with a line of low pressure from TX to the MA. With the trough in place... HP builds overhead Without the trough, energy drops back into the s/w and pulls it north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 wow - overall we've trended away from the scenario of the polar wave dropping southwest and fully picking up the Pac wave out west (your bottom image). Of course, long time out, so a myriad of things can and probably will change....but I think our main questions on the wave 2 storm next weekend are 1) does at least part of the Pac wave come out, 2) is there proper ridge amplification behind it to allow it to dig and properly amplify over the SE, and 3) does the polar trough in your image 1 above dig down enough and bring enough cold air with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 44 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: 2cnd blue line is -10. Much cold at 850 and great ratios, none of this 7 to 1 crap. Guys weber made a valid point right before the 18z gfs ran. The lakes cutter has been modeled to set up shop at Hudson Bay for our 50/50. Well guess what it's now off coast of Maine. Probably 150 miles east of where it's been forecasted to be. Sure this has at a minimum changed the trough axis some and allowed amplification or will allow perhaps more than being shown. Hope Grit sees this post and can chime in on. I'll take a stab at this. The shortwave coming through Tuesday has trended a lot east the last few days that eventually helps pulls the PV southeast.Ukie has a 1000 low in WV at 60 and a 984 low in Maine at 72.Couple days ago this was over closer to Buffalo/Great lakes area.Further northeast is goes gives the shortwave more room to dig from behind but you don't want it to go too far. Just my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 36 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: 2cnd blue line is -10. Much cold at 850 and great ratios, none of this 7 to 1 crap. Guys weber made a valid point right before the 18z gfs ran. The lakes cutter has been modeled to set up shop at Hudson Bay for our 50/50. Well guess what it's now off coast of Maine. Probably 150 miles east of where it's been forecasted to be. Sure this has at a minimum changed the trough axis some and allowed amplification or will allow perhaps more than being shown. Hope Grit sees this post and can chime in on. Just ran a GFS Ensemble trend loop on it, and I did notice the sfc low has trended farther east over Maine, but the placement of the key sfc high behind it to the west hasn't really changed its positioning...also, when looking at 500mb, the placement of the wound up E Canada 500mb low hasn't changed much...it tracks just SE of Hudson Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 26 minutes ago, griteater said: wow - overall we've trended away from the scenario of the polar wave dropping southwest and fully picking up the Pac wave out west (your bottom image). Of course, long time out, so a myriad of things can and probably will change....but I think our main questions on the wave 2 storm next weekend are 1) does at least part of the Pac wave come out, 2) is there proper ridge amplification behind it to allow it to dig and properly amplify over the SE, and 3) does the polar trough in your image 1 above dig down enough and bring enough cold air with it. Yep...looking at the height trends on the both the GEFS/EPS (EPS below).... EPS at 96 shows greater height falls in the east and PV lobe setting up between Hudson Bay and Maine, though it does work east day 5-6. At 138 you see ridge building in the west and overhead (banana high) and you see the 2nd wave getting a little stronger down in TX. That wave 1 is probably going to be key as it travels up the coast, would be nice if that got a little stronger, it was in a nice position on the 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said: What's the 2nd blue line, behind the 850 line? I believe that is the surface freezing line. The thinner blue lines are the sub zero 850 lines (notice the -15 up near the lakes), I think each one of those marks another -3 degrees. The surface line there runs right over the state line, which would only do NC peeps a favor, verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Sooo many possible outcomes for sure, but winter cold is coming for sure. A few thoughts on latest runs. https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 1 hour ago, burrel2 said: I'm more concerned with cold air and this storm trending too far north than I am a complete whiff at this point. When the GFS has a storm in the 5/6 day range, it is almost always too weak/suppressed with it. We just need the GFS to be correct in that the shortwave does in fact kick out and move East. Here's to hoping the 00z Models all show that shortwave dropping down and progressing east over the weekend! Once again, you're all over it burrel. Cold is almost always an issue for most of us, with Jan 88, Jan 11 being two exceptions. Definitely an interesting model war going on with this one. The last Canadian looked nice, but wasn't it showing a lakes cutter yesterday? LOL. Who knows how this one will end? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 2 hours ago, packbacker said: That is crazy...still 6 days away though. With the top image - I don't think I've ever seen that many highs at once. With that look, I would think this would have to stay south and not come back NW. In fact, it seems that many highs would make a s/w act as a Miller A tracking along I-10 or so would it not? I would also think it would help sustain the cold - even if the Eastern most high were to exit stage right the next should be there to take it's place. Am I way off here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 I really don't see this as a model war. To me, a model war would be when one or more modes stick to a certain scenario run after run while one or more other models stick to a substantially different scenario run after run. With what we have currently, I don't think any model has been consistent for more than a run or two - they all have given different results from time to time. So, no real model war in my book. The thing to look for now is for the models to begin to settle on a common outcome and we may still be a couple of days away. It will continue to be fun to watch. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 10 minutes ago, griteater said: wow - overall we've trended away from the scenario of the polar wave dropping southwest and fully picking up the Pac wave out west (your bottom image). Of course, long time out, so a myriad of things can and probably will change....but I think our main questions on the wave 2 storm next weekend are 1) does at least part of the Pac wave come out, 2) is there proper ridge amplification behind it to allow it to dig and properly amplify over the SE, and 3) does the polar trough in your image 1 above dig down enough and bring enough cold air with it. What needs to happen: The NW wave progresses east and not get pulled back into the ULL over the NPacific. Once that occurs the arctic wave that is passing across the N Plains needs to progress east and lower heights over the GL and NE. This will force the NW wave to dig south as HP builds in after the arctic wave swings by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 12 minutes ago, deltadog03 said: Sooo many possible outcomes for sure, but winter cold is coming for sure. A few thoughts on latest runs. https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons/ There ya are! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Latest from WPC Probability of 0.25" liquid equivalent of snow/sleet for whatever that's worth. Are these made by people or computers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 0z run time. another solution or hopefully solution of the 18z here we come! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 3 minutes ago, Jonathan said: Latest from WPC Probability of 0.25" liquid equivalent of snow/sleet for whatever that's worth. Are these made by people or computers? [SNIPPED IMAGE] I believe those are automated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 5 minutes ago, SN_Lover said: 0z run time. another solution or hopefully solution of the 18z here we come! Well see a few more ebb and flows with these model runs over next 24 to 36 hrs before it settles down. Gonna be a dud or 2 and couple lotto winner runs. So hopefully everyone has their expectations guarded for a couple more days while models sift through this. Trends have been good on this so hopefully they keep up. I'm really interested in the foreign guidance tonight. It's back to work tommorow so gonna have to start setting the euro alarm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 3 minutes ago, SN_Lover said: PAC ridge higher than 18z What model are you looking at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 5 minutes ago, SN_Lover said: PAC ridge higher than 18z Lower heights at hour 60 of the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Just now, RubiksDestroyer said: What model are you looking at? Lol! NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Just now, mackerel_sky said: Lol! NAM It's not a bad model anymore. It's improved vastly the past few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 1 minute ago, SN_Lover said: Lower heights at hour 60 of the NAM Energy isn't going to kick just like the 18z Nam. Appears to be pulled in too far west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 1 minute ago, Cary_Snow95 said: Energy isn't going to kick just like the 18z Nam. Appears to be pulled in too far west yup, got cutoff. ridge builds back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 It's trending east with the NW wave like the GFS. Works for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Let's extrapolate the HRRR! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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