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Winter Storm 1/6 - 1/8, 2017


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  On 1/5/2017 at 9:05 PM, farleydawg79 said:

Do you think would apply for Athens also?

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Athens is rain at hour 36, then transitions to all snow by hour 39 based on 18z NAM. Based on radar sim. it's pretty heavy as well so it's unlikely there will be much sleet in the transition from rain to snow because of the dynamic cooling process in the column.

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  On 1/5/2017 at 9:05 PM, griteater said:

Regarding the Euro Ens Mean....h5 showed a similar move as the Op to have less stream separation...and while it has more snow than the Op back thru Atlanta, it had less than it's previous run.  The footprint of the snow on the mean was tighter.  Bottom line, less stream separation is a riskier play and not the direction we want to go in.  NE NC seems to get hit regardless, so probably fine there, but more risky as you go back SW   

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As of 3:45, GSP has CLT at 6" as "most likely" and 9 " as "potential".  Their forecast discussion is not out yet but it's got to be heavily weighting the GFS/UKMET stream separation.  I know though, it's making me nervous.  Hopefully EURO caves tonight. 

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  On 1/5/2017 at 9:12 PM, SnowNiner said:

As of 3:45, GSP has CLT at 6" as "most likely" and 9 " as "potential".  Their forecast discussion is not out yet but it's got to be heavily weighting the GFS/UKMET stream separation.  I know though, it's making me nervous.  Hopefully EURO caves tonight. 

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Same here to your west at KQFD with 5 likely and 9 potential  

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  On 1/5/2017 at 9:23 PM, packbacker said:

RGEM PTYPE

Screen Shot 2017-01-05 at 4.23.29 PM.png

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That's actually really good.  I mean, I fully expect my part of the county to see some pingers, because that's how we roll, but the RGEM is pretty much keeping the R/S line in the same area as previous runs...just eyeballing it, since I don't have the county breakdown.

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  On 1/5/2017 at 9:27 PM, Cold Rain said:

That's actually really good.  I mean, I fully expect my part of the county to see some pingers, because that's how we roll, but the RGEM is pretty much keeping the R/S line in the same area as previous runs...just eyeballing it, since I don't have the county breakdown.

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It was actually colder then 12z run and much higher QPF.

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  On 1/5/2017 at 8:38 PM, Wow said:

The NAM trend at 24 hrs.  Keeps backing the wave southwest.

neY2td4.gif

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That is a good thing? I would think so. Looks like it is digging, however, we do not want this bad boy TOO AMPED up on ROID RAGE. The RN/SN line is creeping DANGEROUSLY close to our areas, ALTHOUGH, I kind of like this setup because dynamical cooling  can win out, UNLESS it is ip? The BUFKIT data will be interesting for our areas on this run. Have you seen it yet? Thanks JWOW!

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