cg2916 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 GSP says they're favoring the GFS, hence the higher totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 LP near ILM at 42. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 10 minutes ago, Wow said: NAM is sharper with the trough. Yay. Very good news.. 9 minutes ago, beanskip said: GSP going with Winter Storm Warning -- 4-6 inches. http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=NCZ068&warncounty=NCC045&firewxzone=NCZ068&local_place1=2 Miles WNW Shelby NC&product1=Winter+Storm+Warning&lat=35.3012&lon=-81.5816#.WG6pj1UrJ9M No doubt. Love the blend they are using. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 NAM also has that razor sharp cutoff near ATL during a good part of the event. This could end up being a HRRR nowcast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Nam wants to phase this baby! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 I'm not surprised at all that it was this amped considering the SREF numbers.. remember the NAMs bias is to overamp storms at this range.. I wouldnt freak out too bad since the EURO held serve for Triangle areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Not surprised that NAM trended that way for Raleigh. Same thing happened last year... big snow totals forecasted, only to be mostly rain with sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 The RPM, which has been totally anemic all along, now has 1-2" for Atlanta. Baby steps..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Looks rainy at GSP ! The next frame has a changeover with heavy snow in the Upstate Mack, then it departs. I guess that would be our quick 2 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Looks close to the UKMET,tick west of it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 All the models are waffling, and the GFS has been the most consistent by far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherheels Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Just now, Poimen said: LP near ILM at 42. And that normally means a really good storm for us in the Triad. I have to believe the NAM is a little overdone on precip totals, and a little too warm though. I do think climatology is starting to play a bigger role... seems like when we started Temps weren't an issue for hardly anyone on the board... and as the runs go by, the fact that we're in the south starts to become evident. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Just now, WXinCanton said: All the models are waffling, and the GFS has been the most consistent by far. Correct. But will it hold serve at 18Z???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Major warm nose per the NAM reaching into Wake County. 850 temp at 39 HR is 7c over FAY. Tremendous warmth for so much cold around us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, Cheeznado said: The RPM, which has been totally anemic all along, now has 1-2" for Atlanta. Baby steps..... The one period I'd watch your area is 09-16Z. The stronger that vort is as it drops in the more likely some sort of snow may break out in that window. The UKMET/Euro show that and the 18Z NAM shows it from 06-10Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, Cheeznado said: Correct. But will it hold serve at 18Z???? Hopefully, I will be drinking a cocktail come 4:30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southernskimmer Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Just now, packfan98 said: What time does the 18z RGEM come out? Anyone have a report? I'm wonder if it is similar to the NAM? 18z @ 5 pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 4 minutes ago, weatherheels said: And that normally means a really good storm for us in the Triad. I have to believe the NAM is a little overdone on precip totals, and a little too warm though. I do think climatology is starting to play a bigger role... seems like when we started Temps weren't an issue for hardly anyone on the board... and as the runs go by, the fact that we're in the south starts to become evident. Yes it sure does. Not sure if I believe it or not though...temps not an issue back here. Jan 1987 anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 NAM solution looks more like what we are used to in central and eastern NC. Far more usual to get the NAM solution (granted likely too amped and high on precip) than the one foot jackpot around Rocky Mount that the GFS shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 No denying the NAM looks bad for the Triangle. Looks way too warm. Crazy seeing the Euro and GFS still have a major snow storm here this close to go time and the NAM looks like mostly rain here. Not sure what to think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Miser Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: NAM also has that razor sharp cutoff near ATL during a good part of the event. This could end up being a HRRR nowcast 12Z GFS keeps the heavier precip around much longer for our area. If the 18Z NAM were to verify most of the heavy stuff looks like it's gone before 850s really drop to a safe level. Definitely going to be very sharp cutoffs in the ATL/Athens area. I'd hate to be any further east of Athens with the warm nose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 The NAM would split the Triangle for the first half of the storm until the cold was able to push eastward. Still looked like decent returns but just not GFS type returns (of course). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 The NAM trend at 24 hrs. Keeps backing the wave southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Hour 42: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 6z para Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 14 minutes ago, Southern Track said: The next frame has a changeover with heavy snow in the Upstate Mack, then it departs. I guess that would be our quick 2 inches GSP pretty bold with that 4-6" call! Especially with temp issues, starting as rain, questionable QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 FFC talking about convective snow bands in their discussion. They sound fed up with the models as well haha Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 322 PM EST Thu Jan 5 2017 ...INCREASING CHANCES FOR HIGH IMPACT SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN NORTH GEORGIA AND PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY... .SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday/... Potentially high impact accumulating snow event on our hands for majority of north Georgia and parts of west central Georgia starting in far north Friday afternoon then transitioning southward by late afternoon into the overnight. The setup isn`t of a variety that we see very often in the region as it is not the more typical CAD wedge with overrunning moisture and resultant diabatic low level effects...but an advective more large scale forcing interacting with a developing Gulf/coastal low pressure system and the enhanced risk for convective banding of heavier snow within the northern deformation zone. Multiple forcings are at play with conditional instability with the saturated column...mid/upper level vorticity advection from the west and low level translated cyclogenesis to the south. P-type and amounts...progged thermal profiles and very deep saturation columns support a rain to snow transition with possibly brief sleet period. The main worry will be the heavy snow potential within convective banding that could occur by late Friday afternoon into early Saturday morning that includes the Atlanta metro area. Given the possible liquid equivalent moisture and snow to liquid ratios upwards of 12:1 /possibly higher at times/...a band could quickly dump a few inches within an hour. Some high res models that resolve convective processes explicitly are indicating multiple bands...though some discrepancy on exact location. Overall expected amounts of 2 to 4 inches with locally higher north of a line from Hamilton to Forsyth to Lexington that includes the Atlanta metro area. Have upgraded the Winter Storm Watch to a Winter Storm Warning accordingly and started the onset for farther southern portions including Atlanta after 21z Friday or 4 PM. This continues through 1 PM Saturday as it should be diminishing to the east as the low tracks farther up the east coast ...though additional concern is to what little snow could melt through the weekend and even Monday if these snow totals come to fruition. Even areas farther south outside the warning location may end up with subsequent overnight ice developing given the arctic followup. Further advisory upgrades may be warranted. Please monitor the forecast updates leading up to this event as some amounts and timing could be adjusted...but this is our best filtered estimate to what has been a roller coaster ride of various guidance member solutions in the last several days...while acknowledging this atypical event setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 my corner of wake gets 0" on that NAM map... we are used to it, though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said: Good or bad? Depends where you are. More precip overall but will be warmer south east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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