avianman Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, wncsnow said: SREFs are coming up wetter for a lot of areas, should be a harbinger of things to come from the 18Z NAM Hickory went from a mean of 1.59 last night to 5.94 this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 This is most likely going to be a big NAM run and probably more amped than the last... it is the NAMs bias after all.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 10 minutes ago, strongwxnc said: In line with GSP thoughts 2-4". GSP has CLT at 6" as "most likely" as of 1 pm. Going with the GFS evidently. Man I hope they're right! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 5 minutes ago, griteater said: WPC went with a GFS/Euro blend in their noted 19z update That would put me in about 7 -8 inch range. I agree with Webber for Randolph county 6-12. Really think we end up closer to 12 than 6 up here in NW part of the county for the very same reasons he mentioned. Gonna be fun watching whatever we get add up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 23 minutes ago, superjames1992 said: Not sure if it has been mentioned, but the SREF plumes are definitely improved over last night. The 09z run has the mean around 4" for CLT, RDU, and GSO. There's a pretty even distribution from nothing up to around 8" with no really clumping, along with a few 20"+ outliers and some 0" outliers. The 15z plumes will be out within the next couple hours. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplumes/ I think Alan's call map looks really good at this point. NE NC is going to get hammered, IMO. The 15z run ticked totals up another inch or two. Around 4.5" for CLT, 5" for RDU, 6" for GSO. Probably is time for an overamped happy hour NAM run now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 For Siloam NC I'm going with 4.1 Final call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 EPS mean for RDU is about 7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 For Siloam NC I'm going with 4.1 Final callYou're so kind and Malcolm Meriwether. Lol. I'll take itSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 EPS mean- better for GA than the Op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 The mean is actually higher than the OP for most of WNC and SVA, must be quite a few more amped members Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Just now, wncsnow said: The mean is actually higher than the OP for most of WNC and SVA, must be quite a few more amped members I saw a couple of MA hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 NAM tries to throw the deform band into TN. WOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY1894 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 18z NAM looks better with s/w than 12z more consolidated/stronger than 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 As predicted, the NAM is amped up and juicy. Big snow NW piedmont at 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Nam moving towards the gfs slightly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY1894 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Same thing at hr36, upper air energy slower and slighty more of a neutral tilt to the trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 at 36 hours, the NAM has snow across NE AL/N GA/E TN/W NC. Edit: and southern VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justicebork Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 As I recall, it was the NAM that first sniffed out the BL temp problems that hurt Wake County in last January's storm when it was 36 hours out. Probably a good model to pay attention to from that regard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 NAM is sharper with the trough. Yay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 GSP going with Winter Storm Warning -- 4-6 inches. http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=NCZ068&warncounty=NCC045&firewxzone=NCZ068&local_place1=2 Miles WNW Shelby NC&product1=Winter+Storm+Warning&lat=35.3012&lon=-81.5816#.WG6pj1UrJ9M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 NAM is far west on this run compared to 12z. Almost hugging the SC coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 850-700 mb thicknesses look a bit sketchy on the NAM for some areas. 156 dm at hr 39 at RDU, though it crashes to a more reasonable number in the following few hours. But it's the overamped, warm NAM...though the NAM is pretty good at finding warm noses in these situations, so you never know. 1008ish mb surface low a little off Hatteras at hr 45. Nice run for WNC, for sure. The I-85 corridor looks nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 At hour 36 NAM has a 1013 LP sitting over Statesboro Georgia. NW FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vtrap90 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Beautiful for us in NW GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 If I was a professional met, I'd continue to be conservative given the NAM's trend and knowing climo. That's probably why a lot of places are hesitant to include the big numbers... I'm interesting to read RAH's afternoon discussion. They have continued to err on the side of caution, with good reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1-2" of snow here on the NAM. Big improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 GSP just upgraded to Winter Storm Warning's for their entire forecast area. 18z nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 at 39, snow line appears to be from CLT to just east of GSO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Nice rainstorm for Raleigh! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, vtrap90 said: Beautiful for us in NW GA. Looks rainy at GSP ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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