sakau2007 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Some comments, predictions, and wishcasting: A - The GFS looks good for my backyard on the south side of Birmingham, AL. Possibly start as some sleet and then transition over to snow. 1-2 inches looks like a decent bet and if we get under that axis of heavier precip, possibly 3"+ (!!!!) B - Even with snowcover, I think those temperatures are too cold across North Carolina. I definitely think some people could make a run towards 0 with widespread single digits, but 11 below zero in Raleigh? I'll believe it when I see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 From Allan Huffman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Well you can tell who is going with the EURO and who is siding with the GFS just by looking at their snow maps... I think a blend is best but can think Allan's map isnt bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 5 minutes ago, packfan98 said: From Eric Webb: No doubt riding the GFS. What's his track record? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, packfan98 said: From Allan Huffman. Interesting that allan thinks,there will be more snow in Chattanooga than here. Most models don't seem to be showing 1-3" for Chatt do they ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
parrisbutch Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, packfan98 said: From Allan Huffman. He Really cut down totals in the west. I would love to see a similar graphic for Alabama. I'm supposed to leave North Alabama early Saturday morning driving to Tampa. I'm thinking I won't know which route to take until I start driving and get road condition reports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, strongwxnc said: Welcome Mike! Lets see how it plays out as the cards continue to fall. Skip many old timers around here have been down this rabbit hole many times. Yeah, and all the upgrades in the last few years have made things more difficult. Always so many factors and more so, more interpretations from a wide variety of mets and amateurs alike. Social media doesn't help much as more nutjobs have a platform to misinform. But anyway...one thing is this, the further north that SFC low tracks in the Eastern GOM, more likely, a transferrance along the baroclinic zone happens. Believe it would be best if the GOM reflection is further south and crosses FL in the Peninsula vs northern FL. What I saw the EURO do was transferrance of energy to the SW Atlantic on the baroclinicity out off the Western Wall of the Gulf Stream, which is why it's screwing GA/AL and reducing amounts. Could there also be convective robbing issues. Certainly. So many beasts to face with only a dagger in hand. 1 minute ago, frazdaddy said: Good to see you in here. Thanks man. I have been lurking for several days. I was really hoping for a Central FL "landfall" so to speak. Better chances my way plus allows the GOM to just open up with a more consolidated look and less chance of a LOW jump to the ATL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miller Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 NWS GSP is saying Euro is conservative and they are leaning towards GFS. Also, they say light rain to mostly snow for upstate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 6 minutes ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said: No doubt riding the GFS. What's his track record? He's young, but is very intelligent. Here's one of his tweets about the reasons for his map: Eric Webb @webberweather 4m4 minutes ago @webberweather Im just northwest of most atm, expecting isentropic upglide bias, current trends, & climatology to favor areas just NW of RDU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 4 minutes ago, parrisbutch said: I would love to see a similar graphic for Alabama. I'm supposed to leave North Alabama early Saturday morning driving to Tampa. I'm thinking I won't know which route to take until I start driving and get road condition reports. If most of GA gets only .5 to 2" then Alabama gets nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Forgive me for mentioning this but the SREF plumes are highest on either side of me than they have been so far. The SREF plumes did well when I lived in Adairsvillle on more than one occasion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
parrisbutch Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, Cheeznado said: If most of GA gets only .5 to 2" then Alabama gets nothing. I hope that's right. I'm normally a guy who wants as much snow as possible, but not this time. I'm the only one here hoping for a complete bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, Miller said: NWS GSP is saying Euro is conservative, therefore they are leaning towards GFS. With regards to amounts, GSP is probably correct. If I am not mistaken, there is quite a moisture connection deep to the PAC that will have moisture levels 4 to 5 standard deviations above normal, hence why the apocalyptic QPF amounts in CA. Not sure how that translates downstream if all that gets sucked out back there but the GOM should open right up with WSW flow aloft and favorable jet dynamics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Just now, Stormsfury said: With regards to amounts, GSP is probably correct. If I am not mistaken, there is quite a moisture connection deep to the PAC that will have moisture levels 4 to 5 standard deviations above normal, hence why the apocalyptic QPF amounts in CA. Not sure how that translates downstream if all that gets sucked out back there but the GOM should open right up with WSW flow aloft and favorable jet dynamics. The WSW flow would be great for LEE side enhancement among other places. Perfect fetch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Not sure if it has been mentioned, but the SREF plumes are definitely improved over last night. The 09z run has the mean around 4" for CLT, RDU, and GSO. There's a pretty even distribution from nothing up to around 8" with no really clumping, along with a few 20"+ outliers and some 0" outliers. The 15z plumes will be out within the next couple hours. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplumes/ I think Alan's call map looks really good at this point. NE NC is going to get hammered, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Just now, Rhart said: Understand you are in SC, but how do you think this model madness pans out for BHM? I really can't honestly answer that for that region in the limited time I have looked at the latest info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said: I can't look up the discussion right now. Can you post a link? I didn't see update when I checked a little while ago. It has not been updated yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, strongwxnc said: The WSW flow would be great for LEE side enhancement among other places. Perfect fetch. It definitely should be. As for my region, it's a battlezone. This area might have cold rain. Mixing, light freezing rain accretions, sleet, maybe snow as temps crash. The whole gambit is there. Still trying to peg down thermals and timing of how aggressive cold air pushes down and also what role evap. Cooling takes this go around. The air mass is building in at go time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthGaWinter Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Winter storm warning for Atlanta north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 If I were Eric Thomas, lol, I would go with 2-5 right now for Charlotte area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 NAM Vs. HRRR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 FFC updated map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, griteater said: If I were Eric Thomas, lol, I would go with 2-5 right now for Charlotte area. In line with GSP thoughts 2-4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, SN_Lover said: NAM Vs. HRRR. The high is a slightly better spot on the HRRR than on the NAM. Could mean more cold air downstream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Just now, LovingGulfLows said: The high is a slightly better spot on the HRRR than on the NAM. Could mean more cold air downstream. that's what i was thinking. looks like more separation also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 WPC went with a GFS/Euro blend in their noted 19z update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 WPC went with a GFS/Euro blend in their noted 19z updateWell that's a middle of the road from nearly nothing in a lot of places euro to big snows in a lot of places GFSSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 SREFs are coming up wetter for a lot of areas, should be a harbinger of things to come from the 18Z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, SN_Lover said: that's what i was thinking. looks like more separation also. You can also see on the HRRR that the northern part of the gulf coast precip. shield is rain/snow mix vs. just rain on the NAM. Another indication that the HRRR is pushing the colder air faster than the NAM is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 18z NAM coming in sharper at 18z LMAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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