Cheeznado Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Just now, Snowless in Carrollton said: How big is this afternoons Euro run ? Not out yet. In a half hour or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Just now, Snowless in Carrollton said: How big is this afternoons Euro run ? Very. It's been inconsistent to an extent, especially the more northeast up the coast you go where itself and the ensembles waffled significant yesterday from one run to the next on how far west the bigger snows were. I also expect to see it get colder in your area as its done so now for three runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 From 12z GFS at 1AM Saturday. Blue shading is strong vertical lift in the upper levels. Orange and red off the mid atlantic coast is a strengthening jet streak. Diverging arrow vectors show the upper level divergence allowing precip to really blossom. Impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 One thing to keep in mind with regard to accumulations is that even if you are getting 10:1 ratios, you won't get 10:1 ground truth due to compaction and such. Still, the 12z GFS is making me really wish I was in Greensboro again...that's a legitimate 6-9" storm...hard to do much better than that in those parts. I still think CLT/RDU are better places to be for this storm, but there's definitely more mixing risk there. But I'm sitting on the beach in San Juan, so oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, griteater said: From 12z GFS at 1AM Saturday. Blue shading is strong vertical lift in the upper levels. Orange and red off the mid atlantic coast is a strengthening jet streak. Diverging arrow vectors show the upper level divergence allowing precip to really blossom. Impressive. Awesome Grit, and the NC piedmont is right in the middle of it. That's why I say it's odd the EURO keeps the precip lower in the piedmont, you'd think it'd be higher as the GFS has come around to. Hoping we get consistency in this next run. Then tomorrow we start sweating other models!! On to the HWMRF-1000, RGM, NAM, HHHHHHHR, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mckinnonwg Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 5 minutes ago, griteater said: From 12z GFS at 1AM Saturday. Blue shading is strong vertical lift in the upper levels. Orange and red off the mid atlantic coast is a strengthening jet streak. Diverging arrow vectors show the upper level divergence allowing precip to really blossom. Impressive. I think you just explained that better than I have ever read anywhere....KUDOS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 From FFC about an hour ago. An upgrade to Winter Storm Warnings may come as early as this afternoon... 621 FXUS62 KFFC 051627 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 1127 AM EST Thu Jan 5 2017 .UPDATE... Forecast remains tricky with regards to snowfall accumulations and timing of onset Friday. The overnight ensembles have reiterated previous solutions with higher snowfall amounts over the metro Atlanta area as convective banding dumps snow over the area late Friday through Saturday morning. At this time, have focused the update on hourly temperatures, dew points, QPF and snowfall amounts. Will continue to monitor the 12z models as they come in before doing another round of updates for the afternoon forecast package, but for now 4"+ snowfall possible for portions of the eastern metro area, with most of the Atlanta metro generally seeing 2-3". Winter Storm Watch still in effect and will likely need to upgrade to Warnings/Advisories this afternoon given the current forecast amounts. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=FFC&issuedby=FFC&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Great GFS run and the ensembles all look almost identical. Also love seeing the graph of over an inch of precip that should be snow, and a 99.9% chance of 3 inches or greater for almost all of NC. Yeah, the temps are always a worry in the back of our minds around here, but as of now everything looks great for a big winter storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 FFC has upped their totals..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Looks like Gwinnett is the sweet spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 16 minutes ago, griteater said: From 12z GFS at 1AM Saturday. Blue shading is strong vertical lift in the upper levels. Orange and red off the mid atlantic coast is a strengthening jet streak. Diverging arrow vectors show the upper level divergence allowing precip to really blossom. Impressive. 4 Might be able to get some thundersnow out of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpStateCAD Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 sure seems like in the UpState/GSP area we are using a lot of precip to wet-bulb. End up using over half of the precip to bring 2M temps below freezing. I think this particular area has a huge bust potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mclean02 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 looks like some flurries are possible already today going to be nice to see ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 New Euro faster and weaker with vort at 18 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Euro out to 15, the NS and the Pac wave are a little closer together. Heights are slightly relaxed over PA, slightly warmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mckinnonwg Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Euro Shows precip building out of Gulf a little faster....could end up being opposite of GFS rather than closer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Euro not digging as much with the vort out to 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Overall though at 5h it doesn't look terrible...just gotta wait and see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Out to 27 streams are still closer together, slightly warmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Aren't we a little too close to the event to be using global model guidance so closely? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Suspect we will get a little less storm and a little warmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 You can best believe everyone is watching this EURO run, especially the ENSEMBLES. That's the main reason afternoon discussions come out AFTER the EURO has run. Any changes in forecast or amounts will be made using data from the EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Just now, griteater said: Suspect we will get a little less storm and a little warmer Looks like it's coming closer to lining up with the 00z Euro at 5h with the energy just faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 @39 our LP is getting cranking I suspect this is gonna be a big hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, burgertime said: @39 our LP is getting cranking I suspect this is gonna be a big hit. Temps ok? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 At 42-45, good snow CLT to Triad to Raleigh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 GSP to CLT to RDU do well on this run. It's not a monster like the GFS. Kind of split the difference between the GFS and the NAM to my eyes looking at SFC maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Just now, griteater said: At 42-45, good snow CLT to Triad to Raleigh To be honest, totals on the Euro look a bit more realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Digs more than 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 plenty cold enough for rdu, a really good hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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