ncskywarn Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 For now at least as Grit said RDU is still pretty much all snow per 12Z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, ajr said: That much ens support is a beautiful thing to see.. Probably one of the better ensemble runs you'll see around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 12z accums : UK: German: NAM: GFS: CMC: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, griteater said: That's the CMC scenario. Seeing the GFS come in though, it tends to be a little weaker with these waves at this time range I'd say...so seeing it sharpen this morning, I don't think we are going to see this all of the sudden go back flatter That's my hope. I'd love to see it trend just a little more sharper for good measure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southernskimmer Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Is anybody else concerned about dryslotting when the precip moves NE through the foothills? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 12z GEFS Mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDeac Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Certainly have to like the match-up right now between GFS, Euro, and UKie (and viva la France and ze Germans) vs. CMC and Nam. Hopefully, the short range models will fall in line with the GFS, rather than the globals caving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mckinnonwg Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Thoughts out there on the west Ga area particulary I-20 corridor....you all think it will hold heavy as it shows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 GFS MOS(which is weighted heavily toward climo) has a low of -4 at RDU next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 The GFS ensemble looks good...but a lot of members way close to RDU with the cutoff... Similar thing happened last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Probably one of the better ensemble runs you'll see around here. Almost ever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Just now, griteater said: Almost ever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Looks like I easily make my forecast of 51, no problem! Even mostly cloudy, it's 47 already! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 All models except the Canadians break out a good chunk of precip in the north GA area. It all comes down to temps, as it usually does here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, mckinnonwg said: Thoughts out there on the west Ga area particulary I-20 corridor....you all think it will hold heavy as it shows? Because colder air is coming earlier now, the slug of moisture from 22-03Z which is the best chance it seems for heavier stuff in that area may be frozen. It may be sleet though. Here is the 12Z SPC WRF at 36 hours, everything moving SW to NE at that time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 8 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: How about n ga and SW nc? .40 t0 .50 there .80 is knocking on the door though Also better precip in S.Virginia,.40 there now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 GEFS mean shows 4 inches here and Canadian shows nothing. I'm going with the Canadian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 A 70 % probability of 6" of snow here ? These maps are a joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Because colder air is coming earlier now, the slug of moisture from 22-03Z which is the best chance it seems for heavier stuff in that area may be frozen. It may be sleet though. Here is the 12Z SPC WRF at 36 hours, everything moving SW to NE at that time Goose, you've said the cold air is coming in earlier now, but the system is continuing to tick to the NW. It seems that if the cold was pressing more and earlier, the storm track would be a little farther south. Of course, you may be talking about a different area than I'm referring too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: A 70 % probability of 6" of snow here ? These maps are a joke. I think you're in a good spot. The trends have definitely shifted the odds in your favor. I am much more concerned that south of I-20 is going to get a nice cold rain only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vtrap90 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 After the last GFS run the NWS modified the Winter Storm Watch for my area from 1-3, to 2-4 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YetAnotherRDUGuy Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: This image here--showing a 99.9% chance of equal/greater than 3'' across the majority of NC, made my heart skip a beat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhart Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Would love that precip shield to shift about 20 miles NW in NC AL.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Goose, you've said the cold air is coming in earlier now, but the system is continuing to tick to the NW. It seems that if the cold was pressing more and earlier, the storm track would be a little farther south. Of course, you may be talking about a different area than I'm referring too. Only in AL and GA. It's always a different story for those areas on these Miller A type systems. The cold has clearly been under modeled there and they don't have a deeper low developing to their SE like NC and VA do. The whole cold air scenario in NC or VA is different because you have a developing deeper low coming up the coast and also mountains to the west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Just now, SnowGoose69 said: Only in AL and GA. It's always a different story for those areas on these Miller A type systems. The cold has clearly been under modeled there and they don't have a deeper low developing to their SE like NC and VA do. The whole cold air scenario there is different because you have a developing deeper low coming up the coast and also mountains to the west Good deal, thanks much! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 4 minutes ago, weatherfide said: I think you're in a good spot. The trends have definitely shifted the odds in your favor. I am much more concerned that south of I-20 is going to get a nice cold rain only. I would be more worried they see too little precip TBH then rain at this point. Maybe Macon but if you mean the immediate southern ATL suburbs I'm less concerned about rain than I am too dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersNotComing Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Looks like CAE is getting the shaft as we usually have with these events the past few years. Hoping we can hold on to at least an inch Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 How big is this afternoons Euro run ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Awesome look from the GFS for MBY this morning. Euro is not quite there yet with the QPF it seems though, still has that odd low point in the piedmont of NC. I'd like to see that increase north and west to agree with the GFS before I get excited about anything over 4 inches. Great that it seems like most in NC are getting in on the action. I still think CLT has a bit more wiggle room but I'm not really looking for any further NW trend. I liked the WPC track posted earlier. That's about textbook. I think many tv mets are catching up to this thing. Thankfully this is on a weekend so CLT won't be disrupted too bad, but other than Matt East, most I've seen have been WAY conservative. Kudos so far to GSP, I think they've been just about right on this storm so far. Great to have a storm on our front porch...and so early in the season!! Can't wait to see what February holds!! lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Just now, Snowless in Carrollton said: How big is this afternoons Euro run ? The next Euro run has been the biggest Euro run ever the last 10 days or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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