mckinnonwg Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 15 minutes ago, griteater said: CMC was a pretty anemic looking run overall save parts of E and NE NC The 12z's and the 0z's mimic each other in the CMC.....odd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Just now, Wow said: ICON finally backed off on their precip amounts. Looks like the GFS now. That's totally fine by me. 1" QPF is 30 miles from us now on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 I dont understand why Western NC is not under a Watch. Shouldn't the western areas of NC get the snow before the eastern areas ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Forecast high today was 47F in Ellijay. Made it to 41F and I am not sure it will rise much more with virga in the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: I dont understand why Western NC is not under a Watch. Pretty sure you need at least 4" to trigger the watch in WNC. Most of it is currently expecting 2-3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Someone earlier asked for modeled Kuchera ratios -- here they are at hour 48 according to GFS/Pivotal Weather: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 19 minutes ago, localyokelweather said: You feel that there is any indication to go above a general 2 - 4" across parts of SW NC (localized, TN line and also closer to the escarpment)? I wonder if moisture can bank up against the escarpment enough to warrant an increase to 3 - 5" on our map. Good to see you and Met1985. It's been a while since i visited the forum. Nice to see you posting in here! I think 2 to 4 is a good start but I think can go up much higher depending the strength of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 4 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: I dont understand why Western NC is not under a Watch. For a watch to be issued up here, 4 inches of snow has to fall within a 12 hour period, or 5 inches in a 24 hour period. given the Euro's snow totals, it would take the 12z run looking like the GFS before they would have enough cause to issue it. Here is a link explaining http://www.weather.gov/media/gsp/winter/Product Description.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
malak05 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, DixieBlizzard said: Forecast high today was 47F in Ellijay. Made it to 41F and I am not sure it will rise much more with virga in the area. Dallas Ga High today was supposed to be 56 only at about 42 so far and got till about 3-4 for peak heating we shall see if it reaches that...climo could be a few degrees colder then model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Ukie still shifting NW,off Myrtle Beach at 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 UK looks like an CLT to GSO special, might be mixing issues for RAL and especially East of there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, NC_hailstorm said: Ukie still shifting NW,off Myrtle Beach at 48 Wont be at all surprised if tomorrow night this storm has a foot projected in west jefferson and everything east of Burlington is rain. Too many folks here have seen these events wash out into 33 degree puddles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Looking at GFS soundings... Charlotte (central Meck County): may begin as light rain, then switch to snow and it's all snow. Temp drops to 26 early Sat Raleigh (central Wake County): may begin as light rain, then switch to snow and it's all snow but closer call than Charlotte. Temp drops to 22 early Sat Greenville, NC (NW Pitt County): snow to sleet to snow. Temp drops to 21 Sat at lunch time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Just now, griteater said: Looking at GFS soundings... Charlotte (central Meck County): may begin as light rain, then switch to snow and it's all snow. Temp drops to 26 early Sat Raleigh (central Wake County): may begin as light rain, then switch to snow and it's all snow but closer call than Charlotte. Temp drops to 22 early Sat Greenville, NC (NW Pitt County): snow to sleet to snow. Temp drops to 21 Sat at lunch time That's assuming we make 44, which the GFS thinks we get to. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phishbfm Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Latest from Raleigh...seems like everyone is starting to freak out about warmer temps: http://www.weather.gov/media/rah/briefing/NWSRaleighLatestBriefing.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Sisk Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 16 minutes ago, WxBlue said: Pretty sure you need at least 4" to trigger the watch in WNC. Most of it is currently expecting 2-3". GSP NWS said that western NC has a different criteria. They have to have a forecast of 4" in a 12 hour period to issue a watch/warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 33 minutes ago, Bsudweather said: What's up with that warm nose on the Game/Sc border? I'm not sure I'm buying that. That just doesn't look right. @Lookoutcan explain it very well but it the way the winds are converging in that area since the moisture is coming from the GOM and Atlantic but the cold is coming over the mountains the Savannah river valley traps that warm air and make a warm bubble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Well this was my concern all along....a bigger NW shift than it was the GFS misses to the south. So things are improving in the AVL to Hickory to Triad to NE NC corridor. CLT to Raleigh to Greenville, NC have to hope that there's not more lift north. I'm probably more concerned with seeing heights lift over the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic than I am with the vort getting super sharp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Just now, griteater said: Well this was my concern all along....a bigger NW shift than it was the GFS misses to the south. So things are improving in the AVL to Hickory to Triad to NE NC corridor. CLT to Raleigh to Greenville, NC have to hope that there's not more lift north. I'm probably more concerned with seeing heights lift over the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic than I am with the vort getting super sharp Yep, this is what always tends to happen. You lose the cold press at the last minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 UKMET has us plenty cold by 0z Saturday. I cant imagine RDU would blowtorch from -4C to 0c at 850. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 7 minutes ago, griteater said: Well this was my concern all along....a bigger NW shift than it was the GFS misses to the south. So things are improving in the AVL to Hickory to Triad to NE NC corridor. CLT to Raleigh to Greenville, NC have to hope that there's not more lift north. I'm probably more concerned with seeing heights lift over the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic than I am with the vort getting super sharp My concern would be that the precip doesn't blossom back west over N AL/GA. I've seen that happen all too many times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 .40-.50 over all of NW NC on the ukie,.60 up to the I 40 corridor .80 GSP/CLT,RAH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, Wow said: My concern would be that the precip doesn't blossom back west over N AL/GA. I've seen that happen all too many times. That is my concern too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Just now, Wow said: My concern would be that the precip doesn't blossom back west over N AL/GA. I've seen that happen all too many times. That's the CMC scenario. Seeing the GFS come in though, it tends to be a little weaker with these waves at this time range I'd say...so seeing it sharpen this morning, I don't think we are going to see this all of the sudden go back flatter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, NC_hailstorm said: .40-.50 over all of NW NC on the ukie,.60 up to the I 40 corridor .80 GSP/CLT,RAH How about n ga and SW nc? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 4 minutes ago, Wow said: My concern would be that the precip doesn't blossom back west over N AL/GA. I've seen that happen all too many times. The NAM/RGEM certainly show that. They both got colder there too. The UKMET I thought did, but then I realized that the 00Z UKMET had a 12 hour panel from 00Z sat to 12Z Sat and the 12Z UKMET had two 6 hour panels for that period. There was virtually no difference, far NW GA and AL were pretty dry on both runs. The UKMET/ECMWF both are darn similar in those areas and both hint at a weak snow band from 10-16Z Sat AM in N/NERN GA.. The colder air getting in faster though may cause the entire thing to balance out. I think ATL may be snowing by 00Z or certainly sleet. Yesterday I did not think that was possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 12z GEFS pretty consistent with 12z GFS regarding snowfall totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 WxBell has 1.0 to 1.2 liquid across Charlotte. Regardless of what the various snow maps say, I would go straight 10:1...10-12 inches snow verbatim on the model...the sfc temperatures get cold into the 20's as the storm goes on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 gefs members look great temp/precip wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, Hvward said: 12z GEFS pretty consistent with 12z GFS regarding snowfall totals. That much ens support is a beautiful thing to see.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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