griteater Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 What I think we will continue to see is some slight strengthening with the wave. So far the heights through the Ohio Valley are hanging in there (not lifting north)...so that would prevent it from climbing too much as long as that holds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Snowless in Carollton will really love this run...he wouldn't have to drive anywhere to get a nice snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 HERE is HR 54 2 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: 1" QPF line now as close to Charlotte as Rock Hill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Sigh! Warming gets to FAY with a bucket of sleet for the Sandhills now. It's like not being able to hit free throws to ice the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 5 minutes ago, griteater said: Looks like a very nice comma head rolls straight thru upstate and NE thru good part of NC Long live the German model! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Out to 60 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Everyone reading should be rooting for this solution. It's really hard to get much better in the SE. So many people are in play with this and to be so close, hard not to get overly excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 At hour 54, and it would still be snowing over a good portion of NC. SE Virginia, and into SC: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 The ever so slight NW trend continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Sisk Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 4 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: GSP , more rain? no, more snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Phew.....Yikes.... Knoxville right back in thisSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Up to a foot for MBY here in Boone (yo Ashe we score!). This is a trend I can get behind. 48 hours ago we were looking at token flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Just now, MotoWeatherman said: The ever so slight NW trend continues. Like you said, take it to the bank NAM is gonna hop on board pretty soon. Wouldn't be surprised if we see totals start ramping up...not that I'm gonna buy these extreme 12+ totals...but with the setup.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, Rankin5150 said: MISS YOU Brother. I know its OT, but you need to come home soon. PHAT Burrito awaits.... Wish I could be there, but Amsterdam is pretty damn fun! Good luck man, looks like this could actually be the one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Just now, GlaringSun said: So when will the NW trend start? It's started but we shouldn't see any big jumps with this storm. It will more likely be the precip shield that's moving NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 8 minutes ago, burgertime said: Can't get much better than that. Let's cut those totals by about 25% for realistic reasons and it's still a big dog. WOOF! You da man Burger...sometimes we get lucky down here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 8 minutes ago, Cheeznado said: Phew..... That's a pretty ICONic snow map there. Hopefully not much more of a NW trend. Ready for tomorrow evening to get here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 6 minutes ago, ajr said: Out to 60 hours 4 minutes ago, FallsLake said: At hour 54, and it would still be snowing over a good portion of NC. SE Virginia, and into SC: Which one of these ratios is usually more accurate? Is there a 10:1 map for the complete storm yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Gfs continues to be rock solid! Wave the flag folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
farleydawg79 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Still don't like that warm sector in Eastern Georgia. Hopefully we can get some dynamic cooling with heavier precip. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 GFS spits out .75 qpf along a line from CLT/GSO east. That;s quite a shift in total qpf for those areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avid6eek Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 6 minutes ago, MotoWeatherman said: The ever so slight NW trend continues. Here in SE VA this event is trending to where the EURO was days ago. Too much talk about everything caving to the GFS in this thread. The final victor isn't crowned until the event is over...not 3 days before the first flakes fly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 As far as the NW trend thing, in AL/GA I would not worry much. I think the room for this to advance north there is small because, one we are closer in time for that area and also the dynamics and setup are not as prone to change for AL/GA. In addition, the NAM/RGEM may not be totally out to lunch in that region because they were both much colder. Its possible in some form they are seeing a suppression there with the precipitation in part due to more cold/dry air but its too early to know since they are out of range. In NC/VA and up into MD/NJ/NY/SNE there is room for this to come NW still because its further out in time, so more model error and also the entire development of the system becomes more convoluted and dynamic for those spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillerA Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 From alan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, Brick Tamland said: Which one of these ratios is usually more accurate? Is there a 10:1 map for the complete storm yet? Hard to tell what ratios would be. We can assume as it first stars falling they'll be low (like 7:1). But as the cold air is drawn in at the surface and above the ratios will increase. At hour 48 RDU is sitting around 22 (surface temp). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: As far as the NW trend thing, in AL/GA I would not worry much. I think the room for this to advance north there is small because, one we are closer in time for that area and also the dynamics and setup are not as prone to change for AL/GA. In addition, the NAM/RGEM may not be totally out to lunch in that region because they were both much colder. Its possible in some form they are seeing a suppression there with the precipitation in part due to more cold/dry air but its too early to know since they are out of range. In NC/VA and up into MD/NJ/NY/SNE there is room for this to come NW still because its further out in time, so more model error and also the entire development of the system becomes more convoluted and dynamic for those spots. Heck I'm in GA and want to see,the NW trend. We need the precip to get further NW. I don't like being near the sharp cutoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, FallsLake said: Hard to tell what ratios would be. We can assume as it first stars falling they'll be low (like 7:1). But as the cold air is drawn in at the surface and above the ratios will increase. At hour 48 RDU is sitting around 22 (surface temp). And to further the point, real time data will be able to assist as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, FallsLake said: Hard to tell what ratios would be. We can assume as it first stars falling they'll be low (like 7:1). But as the cold air is drawn in at the surface and above the ratios will increase. At hour 48 RDU is sitting around 22 (surface temp). Pivotal Weather actually has a pretty helpful Kuchera ratio map that shows what snow ratios are at a given point in time. This figures in to the Kuchera snow accum maps. Of course, you have to assume the temps, etc on the model are accurate, but it's still helpful to get an idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Here is the snow depth (ground truth) depiction. Should be more accurate for those measuring with your ruler. Don't think you will need a yardstick??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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