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Winter Storm 1/6 - 1/8, 2017


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6 minutes ago, MotoWeatherman said:

The ever so slight NW trend continues.

 

gfs_apcpn_seus_fh60_trend.gif

Here in SE VA this event is trending to where the EURO was days ago.  Too much talk about everything caving to the GFS in this thread.  The final victor isn't crowned until the event is over...not 3 days before the first flakes fly.

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As far as the NW trend thing, in AL/GA I would not worry much.  I think the room for this to advance north there is small because, one we are closer in time for that area and also the dynamics and setup are not as prone to change for AL/GA.  In addition, the NAM/RGEM may not be totally out to lunch in that region because they were both much colder.  Its possible in some form they are seeing a suppression there with the precipitation in part due to more cold/dry air but its too early to know since they are out of range.  In NC/VA and up into MD/NJ/NY/SNE there is room for this to come NW still because its further out in time, so more model error and also the entire development of the system becomes more convoluted and dynamic for those spots.

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1 minute ago, Brick Tamland said:

 

Which one of these ratios is usually more accurate? 

Is there a 10:1 map for the complete storm yet?

Hard to tell what ratios would be. We can assume as it first stars falling they'll be low (like 7:1). But as the cold air is drawn in at the surface and above the ratios will increase. At hour 48 RDU is sitting around 22 (surface temp).

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1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

As far as the NW trend thing, in AL/GA I would not worry much.  I think the room for this to advance north there is small because, one we are closer in time for that area and also the dynamics and setup are not as prone to change for AL/GA.  In addition, the NAM/RGEM may not be totally out to lunch in that region because they were both much colder.  Its possible in some form they are seeing a suppression there with the precipitation in part due to more cold/dry air but its too early to know since they are out of range.  In NC/VA and up into MD/NJ/NY/SNE there is room for this to come NW still because its further out in time, so more model error and also the entire development of the system becomes more convoluted and dynamic for those spots.

Heck I'm in GA and want to see,the NW trend. We need the precip to get further NW. I don't like being near the sharp cutoff.

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1 minute ago, FallsLake said:

Hard to tell what ratios would be. We can assume as it first stars falling they'll be low (like 7:1). But as the cold air is drawn in at the surface and above the ratios will increase. At hour 48 RDU is sitting around 22 (surface temp).

 

And to further the point, real time data will be able to assist as we get closer. 

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1 minute ago, FallsLake said:

Hard to tell what ratios would be. We can assume as it first stars falling they'll be low (like 7:1). But as the cold air is drawn in at the surface and above the ratios will increase. At hour 48 RDU is sitting around 22 (surface temp).

Pivotal Weather actually has a pretty helpful Kuchera ratio map that shows what snow ratios are at a given point in time. This figures in to the Kuchera snow accum maps.

Of course, you have to assume the temps, etc on the model are accurate, but it's still helpful to get an idea.

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