mrdaddyman Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Haha true, I guess. But it's going to have to massively correct pronto, or we're going to see the other guidance continue to step toward it. The trend has clearly been NW for a while now, though not as extreme as the NAM. Fortunately the overnight Euro run trended SE. I want to wait to see what the 12Z Euro, GFS, and RGEM do before I start to get worried about this one NAM run. However, I'll have to admit that it is very disconcerting after the recent solid runs of the other models I mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Here's the 4km: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said: However, this is where you believe it is incorrect, correct? yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
norcarolinian Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: GSP just added Iredell/Rowan/Catawba to the WSW. Looks like RAH just added Triad metro (excluding VA border counties) to WSW as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Looking a bit closer, the NAM is very close to a snow dump here, it just has a lot of the frozen as sleet. Not much of an adjustment is needed to be more like the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 8 minutes ago, MotoWeatherman said: Peeps...I wouldn't completely fret over the NAM just yet. Personally I think outside of 24 hours the NAM's value starts to drop off dramatically. The most important take away from this NAM run is the 500mb trough slightly deeper. That's it... The NAM is trying to join the party so give it some time. Somethings never change huh? Typically the NAM in this range is overamping the heck out of a storm and dropping 48 inches of concrete . Folks, remember it's called a short range model for a reason. Dig baby dig! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Winter storm watch in the metro ATL. **** is going to hit the fan tonight when the news drops the bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthGaWinter Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Just now, burgertime said: Somethings never change huh? Typically the NAM in this range is overamping the heck out of a storm and dropping 48 inches of concrete . Folks, remember it's called a short range model for a reason. Dig baby dig! Burger!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 The key for most areas will be timing. We need precip arriving later to let the cold air Seep South further. That's a huge factor in the nam being too warm for many. Gfs up next! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Well it looks like the RGEM is continuing the trend with the s/w a bit further west and stronger from what I can see so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Just now, Wow said: Well it looks like the RGEM is continuing the trend with the s/w a bit further west and stronger from what I can see so far. Are you using the BW maps? It's out to 12hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Just now, Wow said: Well it looks like the RGEM is continuing the trend with the s/w a bit further west and stronger from what I can see so far. Towards the German Model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 5 minutes ago, norcarolinian said: Looks like RAH just added Triad metro (excluding VA border counties) to WSW as well... Border counties above the triad fall under the Roanoke office. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, MotoWeatherman said: Are you using the BW maps? It's out to 12hr. Yes.. comparing to the 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 4 minutes ago, NorthGaWinter said: Burger!!!!!! The legend from PBP past! Welcome back. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, Wow said: Well it looks like the RGEM is continuing the trend with the s/w a bit further west and stronger from what I can see so far. Ruh-Roh, Looking NAM like!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Just now, mackerel_sky said: Ruh-Roh, Looking NAM like!! Go read the past couple of pages regarding the NAM first Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Where are you seeing the RGEM now? not updated yet on WXbell and Trop Tidbits 3 minutes ago, Wow said: Well it looks like the RGEM is continuing the trend with the s/w a bit further west and stronger from what I can see so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, Cheeznado said: Where are you seeing the RGEM now? not updated yet on WXbell and Trop Tidbits The black and white maps... LOL http://weather.gc.ca/model_forecast/index_e.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 TBH the NAM is about where you want it right now. Axis of precip is to the east...cold enough temps. Looks like it should start falling in line with the GFS soon...just doesn't do enough at 5h to really force everything. I say keep an eye on the SREF later today..the 9z run was a little wetter than the 12z NAM so if it comes in wetter we can all rejoice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
norcarolinian Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 5 minutes ago, tarheelwx said: Border counties above the triad fall under the Roanoke office. TW Yeah I know RNK covers them. Guess I should have just said Guilford, Forsyth, Randolph, Davidson, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Feel like the NAM is the worst case scenario that can happen here in the Atlanta area when you compile all of the model guidance....but considering this is the South, I just would not be surprised if it's solution came to fruition...need to temper expectations just in case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 RGEM is not good, looks like the NAM at 48. Getting a bad feeling about this...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 RGEM is pretty identical to the 6z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Just now, Cheeznado said: RGEM is not good, looks like the NAM at 48. Getting a bad feeling about this...... That's worrying, is it just not digging our s/w enough and falling apart in the 9th inning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Just now, Cheeznado said: RGEM is not good, looks like the NAM at 48. Getting a bad feeling about this...... Never fear...just 30 minutes until the GFS hopefully continues this trend...which does not match up with the hi-res short range models which are at the far far limit of their range. For me looking at the 36+ hour NAM and RGEM is similar to looking at the 5-7 day GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 I'm in Northern VA, so I've been trying to will this storm Northwest for the past few days, but at the same time I'd love for y'all southerners to get a huge snowstorm. I've enjoyed reading this thread from the beginning. I'm now hoping you guys get pounded from Atl to Norfolk and DC can get in on a couple inches from the precip shield. Best of luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, Wow said: RGEM is pretty identical to the 6z run No, its a LOT drier in GA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Food for thought...how many times have you seen the GFS cave to the NAM at the 11th hour? 9 times out of 10 it's the other way around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Just now, MotoWeatherman said: Never fear...just 30 minutes until the GFS hopefully continues this trend...which does not match up with the hi-res short range models which are at the far far limit of their range. For me looking at the 36+ hour NAM and RGEM is similar to looking at the 5-7 day GFS. Yep. Some times too much resolution can screw up the sfc profile with so many little vorts moving ahead it can't get a consolidated LP in place fast enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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