Tony Sisk Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, NorthernUpstateSC said: In January 2011, I never forgot Dale Gilbert on the 12pm newscast said there would be only a few flurries in the upstate overnight, "sorry kids" there will be school tomorrow. Woke up the next morning with 9 inches of snow and could hardly open the back door.... Just saying.... Our area had widespread snow of 6-9 inches.... Well, with the DirecTV/Hearst Squabble, I'm not getting WYFF right now. But Mac said he was doing the same thing this morning. That there will be some flurries flying around Friday night, but not much to worry about. Yet, the other two meteorologists at WYFF will be all over this storm. I don't get it. Sorry for the banter. I'm thinking that the Upstate I-85 North will be 2-4" and the Upstate I-85 South will be 3-6". "IF" it comes in as all snow, it could be widespread 5-8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Nam looks very warm. Lots of rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 New NAM isnt looking good for areas further NW... Starting most off as rain too... Really looks like a discombobulated mess with its precip shield. Pretty light on QPF through 39.. EDIT- Starting to fill in and look a little better at 42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Nam is at least 6 hrs quicker than most other models.. That's a big timing difference less than 2 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, wncsnow said: New NAM isnt looking good for areas further NW... Starting most off as rain too Incoming wall of awesomeness approaching CLT, RDU at 39. I would think rates could overcome some of the watmer air nearby if qpf as progged now is that heavy. But yes def better for NW areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, wncsnow said: New NAM isnt looking good for areas further NW... Starting most off as rain too Still showing a good push of cold air (850s and dew point) as the storm approaches. Most would still quickly go to snow. Look at the 6z as an example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherheels Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 NAM saying 850s are pretty warm through 42 compared to previous runs. Moisture appears to be very limited where it would actually fall as snow so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Incoming wall of awesomeness approaching CLT, RDU at 39. I would think rates could overcome some of the watmer air nearby if qpf as progged now is that heavy. But yes def better for NW areas. Does look better fore WNC and not too bad for my area and S VA either. It is starting to trend a little slower on the NAM too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 NAM has trended warmer and warmer. It's now 2-4 degrees warmer for RDU than just 00z, which was already pretty warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 NAM at surface is wrong. It's putting the sfc low way ahead and so it strings it out while the trough is back over AR. The sfc low should be back over the GOM. It's probably harping a front piece of energy .. seen the NAM do it plenty before. So makes sense to see it too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, FallsLake said: Still showing a good push of cold air (850s and dew point) as the storm approaches. Most would still quickly go to snow. Look at the 6z as an example. Yeah by 45 it's changing to snow all over he place and heavy in spots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 The NAM is crap for ATL- bring on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Nam is going to DC! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Just now, Wow said: NAM at surface is wrong. It's putting the sfc low way ahead and so it strings it out while the trough is back over AR. The sfc low should be back over the GOM. This was a excellent trend for the NAM IMO at the 500mb level. So much more phasing with the arctic jet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 NAM gives me about half a foot! But it does look very strung out and wrong... Dont think the low would develop that far ahead of the main trough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 The NAM is probably going to shift the heavier snow totals NW of RDU. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Supercane Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Terrible trend for RDU and points SE. Through hr45 Johnston County is all rain and Wake County has severe mixing issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 NAM still looks out to lunch vs others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, Cheeznado said: The NAM is crap for ATL- bring on the GFS. Doesn't make any sense why it would place the low that far north. Hopefully just a fluke run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Sorry wrong image Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, Cheeznado said: The NAM is crap for ATL- bring on the GFS. The NAM is crap past 24 hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 UGH! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 looks like NAM is attaching itself to the NB features on this run.....no other models are doing this right now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, Supercane said: Terrible trend for RDU and points SE. Through hr45 Johnston County is all rain and Wake County has severe mixing issues. One run of the NAM is not a trend. Its just one run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Just now, mckinnonwg said: Depends if you buy 12K or 4K......right? I think the NAM's real usefulness is inside 24 hours no matter which version. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 5 minutes ago, SN_Lover said: This was a excellent trend for the NAM IMO at the 500mb level. So much more phasing with the arctic jet! Great trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, Queencitywx said: One run of the NAM is not a trend. Its just one run. Ignore the surface output and look at the 500mb - great run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mckinnonwg Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Just now, MotoWeatherman said: I think the NAM's real usefulness is inside 24 hours no matter which version. the NAM 12K trended better.... Possible Noob Question: I know 4K is dialed in better but the fact that the 12K increased is a good thing...or no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, Queencitywx said: One run of the NAM is not a trend. Its just one run. Except that it has been a trend. Each run a is a degree or two warmer at the surface and more and more delayed with the cold air. Either it's completely out to lunch, or we're facing a massive BL temp issue that's going to result in half the storm being rain or sleet above freezing for folks Triangle south and east, or possibly even into the Triad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Supercane Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Just now, Queencitywx said: One run of the NAM is not a trend. Its just one run. It's not just one run though, it's been trending warmer for the past 3 runs now. Fortunately it's still the NAM and not worth that much, so I certainly hope the better models hold steady. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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