Lookout Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 new 06z icon. Increased totals yet again over the western carolinas/north ga..as well as eastern nc. Now showing near an inch liquid for the mountains of north ga/sw nc. stripe of nearly 1.25 from athens to southern upstate....where it's likely to be colder/mostly all snow in the upstate. This will be a good test to see how it well it does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 This is looking just perfect for high ratio snows along the northern fringe (maybe 12-15:1). This is for Norfolk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Just now, Lookout said: new 06z icon. Increased totals yet again over the western carolinas/north ga. Now showing near an inch liquid for the mountains of north ga/sw nc. stripe of nearly 1.25 from athens to southern upstate....where it's likely to be colder/mostly all snow in the upstate. This will be a good test to see how it well it does. Interesting how this nugget find was showing the crazy north precip yesterday and now everything is trending this direction. The Germans like high performance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 8 minutes ago, MotoWeatherman said: Last 4 runs of the GFS you can clearly see the trend of digging the shortwave further south across the OK panhandle with increase ridging across the Carolinas. QPF has responded to that as well by ramping up and also inching northward. I would expect this trend to continue. This would be good snow new for places farther north in GA and further west in the Carolinas. Small changes make a huge difference. Check out the 6z rgem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, franklin NCwx said: Check out the 6z rgem yeah I'm liking that. Pretty much following everything else with ticking the higher QPF north each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Time to start looking at real data, not just models. The air mass in place right now is colder than forecast here, and the sat pic shows lots of clouds to the west so I wonder if the guidance saying low-mid 50s here today is too high. The colder the air before the storm, the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 19 minutes ago, Lookout said: yeah...it could have been better and probably should have at least mentioned the possibility of more. Equally as frustrating is watching the local on air mets...making definitive statements that *at most* people will probably see just an inch or two..with isolated 3 inch pockets "in the mountains"...without even mentioning the possibility of more. I understand trying to temper expectations and not over hype but given the model data currently that is quite absurd. I don't understand why they can't say "hey look..this is what we are forecasting but there is a chance there could be quite a bit more if it works out just right". Otherwise, you end up in a situation where once again people are not fully informed of how much there could be and end up getting stranded and in accidents..yet again. It's honesty a disservice to the public. I don't understand why a lot of them just look at FFC and repeat what they say. As you and cheese has said there is plenty of data suggesting much more is possible. All modelse are trending colder and "wetter" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 8 minutes ago, Cheeznado said: Time to start looking at real data, not just models. The air mass in place right now is colder than forecast here, and the sat pic shows lots of clouds to the west so I wonder if the guidance saying low-mid 50s here today is too high. The colder the air before the storm, the better. Great point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 56 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: WOW! Kind of similar They are. It should be a good storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 3 hours ago, packfan98 said: BOOM!!!! 6z GFS is an I-85 special! Over 10 inches Charlotte, Greensboro, RDU! American models are surrendering to the Germans Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jenkins Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 4 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: They are. It should be a good storm. Looked like that put down quite a bit of Snow across the SE. http://www.weather.gov/ilm/Feb1973Snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 06z gfs for rdu: 06z nam for rdu Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonesing for a chase Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Don, really appreciate your input! It is remarkably similar to '73, give us a good, deep full continental trough with a disturbance underneath and it's game time in the SE. Of course, a colder climate then so makes sense this is about 50-100 miles further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 44 minutes ago, MotoWeatherman said: Last 4 runs of the GFS you can clearly see the trend of digging the shortwave further south across the OK panhandle with increase ridging across the Carolinas. QPF has responded to that as well by ramping up and also inching northward. I would expect this trend to continue. This would be good snow new for places farther north in GA and further west in the Carolinas. Small changes make a huge difference. Exactly what I was talking about last night when comparing to the ICON. Small differences but can completely change the outcome for many, esp. in the more western areas of NC/SC/GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 4 minutes ago, BFF said: Looked like that put down quite a bit of Snow across the SE. http://www.weather.gov/ilm/Feb1973Snow This storm probably won't be quite as big with its highest snow accumulations, but it should still be quite impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 59 minutes ago, burrel2 said: 48hr RGEM looks tasty... Following the GFS, trending the s/w SW and sharper. That's going to bring in more precip further west and increase amts overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mryanwilkes Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 34 minutes ago, Cheeznado said: Time to start looking at real data, not just models. The air mass in place right now is colder than forecast here, and the sat pic shows lots of clouds to the west so I wonder if the guidance saying low-mid 50s here today is too high. The colder the air before the storm, the better. Good point. FWIW, at 8am - we were 6 degrees below our expected morning low. (28 vs. 34) About 30 miles north of CAE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jenkins Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 5 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: This storm probably won't be quite as big with its highest snow accumulations, but it should still be quite impressive. Agreed, nobody is going to see 24 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, Jonesing for a chase said: Don, really appreciate your input! It is remarkably similar to '73, give us a good, deep full continental trough with a disturbance underneath and it's game time in the SE. Of course, a colder climate then so makes sense this is about 50-100 miles further north. Thanks. I suspect that the synoptic details have more to do with the axis of heavy snow than the ongoing warming since 1973. The warming may lead to somewhat more moisture being available than would otherwise be the case. Enjoy the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 37 minutes ago, deltadog03 said: It's honesty a disservice to the public. I don't understand why a lot of them just look at FFC and repeat what they say. As you and cheese has said there is plenty of data suggesting much more is possible. All modelse are trending colder and "wetter" yeah it always kills me when they say "this is what I believe will happen"...translation 9/10 times is "this is what i copied from peachtree city" lol 19 minutes ago, Wow said: American models are surrendering to the Germans if it means more snow...i'm sure folks are ok with that and lets not forget about the french...yet again another increase in totals..now showing as much as 1.5 + liquid in eastern nc (some of that might be rain but there is quite a lot of 35 to 40mm totals that looks to be mostly snow...regardless, the main point is it increased totals pushed higher amounts inland there from the 0z run.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Please correct me if I am wrong, but the German and the French models have a lot of the Euro model data in it, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jenkins Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Seeing a few folks post the ICON, Arpege and other lesser known models. What is the reliability of these various fringe models? I'm guessing fairly low or they'd be in wider use? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, BFF said: Seeing a few folks post the ICON, Arpege and other lesser known models. What is the reliability of these various fringe models? I'm guessing fairly low or they'd be in wider use? I believe the French model did very well last year with our winter and maybe the year before. It was built off the Euro model with "enhancements". I don't know much about the German model other than it may have some Euro in it as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 AM 500mb analysis shows the short wave over northern CA looking a bit stronger than the GFS showed at 6 hours. This seems to be borne out by water vapor loops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 hour ago, Lookout said: guess who is slap dab in the middle of the screwzone there? .... That being said...a don't think it's going to be quite as bad/extreme as the gfs keeps painting as...mainly because the column is cold enough that steady rates should be able to get snow the surface and crash the surface temps more/faster than the gfs and others have been showing. The 06z gfs made it a closer call though...but at the same time it increased liquid totals quite a lot. Up to 1.33 liquid here...i would have to believe that although the airmass isn't terribly dry aloft...a combo of initial evap cooling combined with with precip that heavy there is likely to be more dynamical cooling that is being shown in the upper savannah river valley...especially since strong waa will be absent. There is even the possibility of a lot of sleet in this area...if things shake out just right for a length of time. If we were talking a 0.25 to 0.50....the bubble would probably be screwed but that is a lot of precip. Quite a bit might depend on just how warm the area gets tomorrow. If clouds/precip move in sooner...those mid 40s the gfs has been showing ( even upper 40s east of the savannah river) will probably be too high which obviously could make a difference later. But no doubt some will be wasted still though. It certainly is a nail biter here though and i'd much rather it being shown being cold enough period. If things warm any further I might end up having to head to gainesville or something but it's extremely frustrating that it's even an issue when temps are going to be much much colder every where else...in this case maybe as little as 20 to 25 miles in places...where there could be some exceptionally high totals. I know you're in FFC territory but GSP has some words in their disco that you'll enjoy! Confidence has increased on this event as previous suggestions that warm advection ahead of the low might bring a warm nose into our area, but the 05/00z model cycle trended slightly colder. Notably, per the GEFS thickness-based p-type algorithm, all 22 of its members transition from rain to snow at GSP and CLT by 06z Saturday. Overall at this point it appears safe to assume that sfc temps will determine p-type. Timing differences between the GFS/EC/GEM are on the order of a few hours; the NAM remains an outlier in that it brings the low through several hours earlier than the others. Its timing is being discounted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Winter storm watch now up for RAH 829 AM EST THU JAN 5 2017 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. * LOCATIONS...MOST OF CENTRAL NC, EXCLUDING THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT. AT THIS TIME, APPEARS A BAND OF MODERATE SNOW WILL EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. ACROSS SECTIONS OF THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN, A MIXTURE OF SNOW AND SLEET WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT THEN TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW, OR A MIXTURE OF SNOW AND SLEET. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN, 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET IS EXPECTED. * TIMING...MOST OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND NOON SATURDAY. * IMPACTS...SNOW PACKED ROADS WILL LEAD TO HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. * TEMPERATURES...TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER INTO THE 20S LATE FRIDAY NIGHT, AND STRUGGLE TO REACH FREEZING SATURDAY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW, SLEET, OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El Kabong Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 11 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: This storm probably won't be quite as big with its highest snow accumulations, but it should still be quite impressive. Plus the heaviest snow totals are displaced much farther to the north. In the 1973 storm, this area received 15"...for this storm we're expecting 0". I believe the low track was also across central FL in 1973 as opposed to the more northern FL track for this weekend's system. It looks like the thermal profiles for our area are going to be a few degrees too warm. NWS is forecasting rain with a low of 35 tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, NavarreDon said: I know you're in FFC territory but GSP has some words in their disco that you'll enjoy! Confidence has increased on this event as previous suggestions that warm advection ahead of the low might bring a warm nose into our area, but the 05/00z model cycle trended slightly colder. Notably, per the GEFS thickness-based p-type algorithm, all 22 of its members transition from rain to snow at GSP and CLT by 06z Saturday. Overall at this point it appears safe to assume that sfc temps will determine p-type. Timing differences between the GFS/EC/GEM are on the order of a few hours; the NAM remains an outlier in that it brings the low through several hours earlier than the others. Its timing is being discounted. Good find in the disco Don. As the players continue to move into real time tracking, I hope this can be fleshed out more. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, El Kabong said: Plus the heaviest snow totals are displaced much farther to the north. In the 1973 storm, this area received 15"...for this storm we're expecting 0". I believe the low track was also across central FL in 1973 as opposed to the more northern FL track for this weekend's system. It looks like the thermal profiles for our area are going to be a few degrees too warm. NWS is forecasting rain with a low of 35 tomorrow night. Yes. Hopefully there will be enough cold air near the end of the storm to allow you to receive at least a little snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 8 minutes ago, Cheeznado said: AM 500mb analysis shows the short wave over northern CA looking a bit stronger than the GFS showed at 6 hours. This seems to be borne out by water vapor loops. Interesting. Looks closer to the German at 6 hrs than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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