Timothy Clyde Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Winter Weather Advisory for me, Winter Storm Watch Shot down this AM per NWS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 hour ago, JoshM said: Well... looks like we're back to where the GFS was (almost) the other day. BTW Mack... some mets were showing the RPM model, it was the only giving me basically nothing as well. RPM is useless at this range. Live by the RPM, die by the RPM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 BOOM!!!! 6z GFS is an I-85 special! Over 10 inches Charlotte, Greensboro, RDU!Wow!!! That is a major increase... Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ghost Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Noticed the Columbia, SC office has my forecast for snow then freezing drizzle. Don't want ice. How much of a concern to you think freezing rain is for those of us located just on the edge of the snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 5 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: RPM is useless at this range. Live by the RPM, die by the RPM. What is your preferred short range, hi-res model? RGEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, packfan98 said: What is your preferred short range, hi-res model? RGEM? Yes. RGEM is usually much better than the others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 4 minutes ago, strongwxnc said: Wow!!! That is a major increase... Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk It was. I was using the Kuchera Accumulated Snowfall which takes into account the higher ratios. I imagine that the snow depth chart minus a couple would be more realistic for the ground truth. Here is the snow depth map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 KGSPSent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Anybody got the 6z GEFS snow accumulation panels? Would like to see some of the numbers the individual members are printing out. Preciate it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 By the way, the ensemble mean for both the GFS and EURO look very similar except for NW NC (mountains and foothills). The GEFS is higher in those areas 3-5, where the EPS is 2-3. It will be interesting to see which one is right. I would tend to favor the look of the GFS when compared to previous storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timothy Clyde Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Check out the kiss of death, slowly shifted a few miles east of Mount Airy, NC to central VA. That sneaky snake can still slither down south-westward if thunderstorms rob moisture flow - NWS Blacksburg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 GFS is all snow or snow with sleet here based on partial thickness. NAM is solidly in the icing category with 850-700mb thick approaching 1560m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 A comparison of the forecast 500 mb height anomalies with those of the February 1973 Southeast snowstorm: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 24 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: A comparison of the forecast 500 mb height anomalies with those of the February 1973 Southeast snowstorm: WOW! Kind of similar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Boy FFC is awfully conservative and their AFD is pretty worthless- no mention of how the models have increased the qpf, their map has no area from Columbus to the mountains over 2-3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Snowfall forecast from WRAL - in the article Elizabeth Gardner references "some computer models that are holding out". Does anyone know which models are still in the air for the RDU area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Just now, Cheeznado said: Boy FFC is awfully conservative and their AFD is pretty worthless- no mention of how the models have increased the qpf, their map has no area from Columbus to the mountains over 2-3". RGEM has tons of sleet for ATL, 7mm, and 3mm of snow. Its beyond its best range as of now and the RGEM also is not always great on it 06 or 18Z runs, but that is interesting. If it still shows that later today may need to be considered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 hour ago, FirstTimeCaller said: Look at those color drop offs between ATL and GSP! GFS's warm nose is going to kill some accumulation numbers through there. I've seen it time and time again. That thing better stay away from my house guess who is slap dab in the middle of the screwzone there? .... That being said...a don't think it's going to be quite as bad/extreme as the gfs keeps painting as...mainly because the column is cold enough that steady rates should be able to get snow the surface and crash the surface temps more/faster than the gfs and others have been showing. The 06z gfs made it a closer call though...but at the same time it increased liquid totals quite a lot. Up to 1.33 liquid here...i would have to believe that although the airmass isn't terribly dry aloft...a combo of initial evap cooling combined with with precip that heavy there is likely to be more dynamical cooling that is being shown in the upper savannah river valley...especially since strong waa will be absent. There is even the possibility of a lot of sleet in this area...if things shake out just right for a length of time. If we were talking a 0.25 to 0.50....the bubble would probably be screwed but that is a lot of precip. Quite a bit might depend on just how warm the area gets tomorrow. If clouds/precip move in sooner...those mid 40s the gfs has been showing ( even upper 40s east of the savannah river) will probably be too high which obviously could make a difference later. But no doubt some will be wasted still though. It certainly is a nail biter here though and i'd much rather it being shown being cold enough period. If things warm any further I might end up having to head to gainesville or something but it's extremely frustrating that it's even an issue when temps are going to be much much colder every where else...in this case maybe as little as 20 to 25 miles in places...where there could be some exceptionally high totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 48hr RGEM looks tasty... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: RGEM has tons of sleet for ATL, 7mm, and 3mm of snow. Its beyond its best range as of now and the RGEM also is not always great on it 06 or 18Z runs, but that is interesting. If it still shows that later today may need to be considered. I am not discounting the possibility of some part of the Metro getting less that what the GFS shows but if the reason is part of the area is sleet, than some area in GA just north of there will get a lot more than 2-3". My beef with their clown map is *no* area in all of GA is going to get more than 3"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, burrel2 said: 48hr RGEM looks tasty... Continues to increase returns into the NEGA, upstate and WNC.. I like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, Cheeznado said: I am not discounting the possibility of some part of the Metro getting less that what the GFS shows but if the reason is part of the area is sleet, than some area in GA just north of there will get a lot more than 2-3". My beef with their clown map is *no* area in all of GA is going to get more than 3"? I'm a bit suspicious of where the RGEM shows sleet, its showing it on the NW side of the precip where the CAA should be strong enough that is not happening. So its possible its just end of run RGEM stuff that wont happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 7 minutes ago, Cheeznado said: Boy FFC is awfully conservative and their AFD is pretty worthless- no mention of how the models have increased the qpf, their map has no area from Columbus to the mountains over 2-3". Ya I thought it was as well. Euro and gfs even have a T-2" down here. Yalls way was way better last night's runs for sure. As you know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 10:1 off 06GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 4 minutes ago, Cheeznado said: Boy FFC is awfully conservative and their AFD is pretty worthless- no mention of how the models have increased the qpf, their map has no area from Columbus to the mountains over 2-3". yeah...it could have been better and probably should have at least mentioned the possibility of more. Equally as frustrating is watching the local on air mets...making definitive statements that *at most* people will probably see just an inch or two..with isolated 3 inch pockets "in the mountains"...without even mentioning the possibility of more. I understand trying to temper expectations and not over hype but given the model data currently that is quite absurd. I don't understand why they can't say "hey look..this is what we are forecasting but there is a chance there could be quite a bit more if it works out just right". Otherwise, you end up in a situation where once again people are not fully informed of how much there could be and end up getting stranded and in accidents..yet again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Last 4 runs of the GFS you can clearly see the trend of digging the shortwave further south across the OK panhandle with increase ridging across the Carolinas. QPF has responded to that as well by ramping up and also inching northward. I would expect this trend to continue. This would be good snow new for places farther north in GA and further west in the Carolinas. Small changes make a huge difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 13 minutes ago, ajr said: Snowfall forecast from WRAL - in the article Elizabeth Gardner references "some computer models that are holding out". Does anyone know which models are still in the air for the RDU area? Pretty sure that is just a contextual reference to some models showing more snow and some less that's all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 13 minutes ago, scottk said: Whys it so hard for me to realize that 99% of the time the snow is always going to end up N-NW of where it was originally thought to be? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk The NW trend happen more often than not the last 48 hours leading up to a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 The TV mets love the RPM and it continues to be an extreme outlier with very little snow for anyone besides eastern NC. They should realize that model is pretty worthless until you get within 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 The RGEM says the lee-side warm bubble gets evaporated much faster than the GFS. I like that the rgem still shows the bubble in the exact same spot as the GFS, however, as soon as heavy precip arrives it flips this area over to snow and they only lose 1 inch at most of potential accumulation. The GFS has this area losing out on 6 or 7 inches of snow. You can see it clearly in the 10pm and 1am panels. At 10pm, the bubble is evident on the snowfall map, at 1am, it is gone and snow has accumulated at the same rate everywhere that 850's are below zero in this area. Grant it, the rain/snow line is a little farther north on the RGEM when compared to the GFS, but I can live with that as long as I don't get screwed by the stupid lee-side warm bubble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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