Lookout Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 19 minutes ago, Cheeznado said: We have agreement! hallelujah! All hail king GFS! lmao... Once again the euro actually was not the end all.. be all...shocking. Yet i can pretty much promise that the next time, and the next time after that, and the next time after that, etc etc...everyone will hang on every run of the euro as if it's gospel and perfect. Of course I'm sort of counting chickens before they are hatched here but signs are good tonight. speaking of the gfs....it has over one inch liquid here. Now mind you, it's been giving me, areas east of athens, and the upper savannah river valley, and western upstate the finger snow wise on it's accumulations map but a close look at soundings/wetbulb zero heights, etc and I'm fairly confident that it's surface temps are likely too warm and snow amounts too low. Feel like the best area for max accumulation is the area bounded by atlanta, gainesville, and athens. This area seems to be the one where the coldest air and most precip comes together the best. 3 to 6 in this area seems like a decent bet..with an outside chance of even a little higher amounts somewhere...especially if those higher liquid amounts inch their way north just a hair more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 March 1927 is kind of an interesting time for a good snow storm in the South, it's kind of like March 1993 in a decadal sense, shortly before the long-term flip of the AMO from cold to warm. Well...good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Liquid QPF numbers via Ryan Maue on twitter (@RyanMaue). That is quite the gradient over Atlanta. There are still temp issues as previously mentioned by those doing play-by-play but it was a colder run this time. btw, this is the only view he posted. Nothing for eastern SC/NC or I'd post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 9 minutes ago, Lookout said: lmao... Once again the euro actually was not the end all.. be all...shocking. Yet i can pretty much promise that the next time, and the next time after that, and the next time after that, etc etc...everyone will hang on every run of the euro as if it's gospel and perfect. Of course I'm sort of counting chickens before they are hatched here but signs are good tonight. speaking of the gfs....it has over one inch liquid here. Now mind you, it's been giving me, areas east of athens, and the upper savannah river valley, and western upstate the finger snow wise on it's accumulations map but a close look at soundings/wetbulb zero heights, etc and I'm fairly confident that it's surface temps are likely too warm and snow amounts too low. Feel like the best area for max accumulation is the area bounded by atlanta, gainesville, and athens. This area seems to be the one where the coldest air and most precip comes together the best. 3 to 6 in this area seems like a decent bet..with an outside chance of even a little higher amounts somewhere...especially if those higher liquid amounts inch their way north just a hair more. Agreed. Great runs tonight. I would look for the models to slow a little more in qpf timing and trend even colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Can someone tell me why there is such a dramatic cutoff in the precip in North GA ? It goes from almost nothing to almost an inch of liquid in like 40 miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 5 minutes ago, deltadog03 said: Agreed. Great runs tonight. I would look for the models to slow a little more in qpf timing and trend even colder. you know things have to be looking pretty good to see cheez excited lol wpc latest. PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH TRACKING TO THE EAST COAST SATURDAY ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS/18Z GEFS MEAN/00Z ECMWF CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THAT HAS BEEN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS WILL NOW BE SHUNTED TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AS THE BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA BREAKS DOWN AND A LARGE UPPER LOW DEVELOPS (DESCRIBED IN LAST SECTION). THIS WILL QUICKLY PROGRESS TO THE EAST COAST BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INDUCE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE 00Z ECMWF AND EC MEAN CONTINUE TO BE ON THE AMPLIFIED SIDE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE WHILST CROSSING THE ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, WITH THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF A LITTLE SLOWER TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE 00Z UKMET HAS ALSO TRENDED STRONGER WITH THIS WAVE. THE 00Z CMC TRENDED TOWARDS THE MODEL CONSENSUS. AT THE SURFACE, THE NAM IS QUICKEST WITH THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE EAST COAST AND CAN BE DISCOUNTED FOR THE TIME BEING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 GFS vs Euro have an overall similar look here 36 to 48 hours before go time. I would expect continued wobbles (adjustments) going forward from here though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 How about the German ICON Model? ALL HAIL THE GERMANS, if that were to verify. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 8 minutes ago, griteater said: GFS vs Euro have an overall similar look here 36 to 48 hours before go time. I would expect continued wobbles (adjustments) going forward from here though That's a huge difference over WNC, tomorrow night's wave notwithstanding. Especially SW NC. 1" vs 6+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, griteater said: GFS vs Euro have an overall similar look here 36 to 48 hours before go time. I would expect continued wobbles (adjustments) going forward from here though I'm wondering, is the GFS picking up upsloping better for the mountains? Similar look overall, but such a large disparity for WNC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lookingnorth Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 A shift of just 40 miles could give Chapel Hill <2" or >12". It's gonna be close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Definitely think we could see some 12:1 or 15:1 ratios in western and central NC on this one. Temps aloft are pretty ideal and wind speeds will not be an issue given the weakness of the SFC low. Def could see a nice strip of 12 to 15 in the jackpot zone which right now looks to run through far SE Wake county. That said, we're still around 2 days out and there will be some small shifts. Overall the setup looks favorable aloft for widespread snow to breakout on Friday night across the SE. Not really seeing as sharp of a cutoff as the EURO is showing on the NW side. Looks a tad over done given the strength of the 500mb low it's showing. Overrunning should be pretty widespread with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 34 minutes ago, Tyler Penland said: That's a huge difference over WNC, tomorrow night's wave notwithstanding. Especially SW NC. 1" vs 6+ Yeah, didn't mean that it was the same everywhere, I should have stated it another way 34 minutes ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said: I'm wondering, is the GFS picking up upsloping better for the mountains? Similar look overall, but such a large disparity for WNC. It looks like the GFS has more precip there in N MS and N Bama streaking east that runs into the mtns. I think that look makes more sense than the drier look from the Euro. A slight flatter trend with the wave would lessen that precip, but a slightly tighter wave would increase the precip there....razor thin adjustments going forward are key Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 6 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: Definitely think we could see some 12:1 or 15:1 ratios in western and central NC on this one. Temps aloft are pretty ideal and wind speeds will not be an issue given the weakness of the SFC low. Def could see a nice strip of 12 to 15 in the jackpot zone which right now looks to run through far SE Wake county. That said, we're still around 2 days out and there will be some small shifts. Overall the setup looks favorable aloft for widespread snow to breakout on Friday night across the SE. Not really seeing as sharp of a cutoff as the EURO is showing on the NW side. Looks a tad over done given the strength of the 500mb low it's showing. Overrunning should be pretty widespread with this one. Upper jet over Mid Atlantic is ideally positioned too Hky...good setup in Carolinas, details notwithstanding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, SimeonNC said: Sorry if this sounds too imby, but what do you see for other areas (GSP, GSO, ATL, CLT, etc.) Ill make a call tomorrow afternoon as far as amounts. No worries. That said, I agree with grit. The NW side looks likely underdone on the euro, but it's possible given the amount of cold air with this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 8 minutes ago, griteater said: Yeah, didn't mean that it was the same everywhere, I should have stated it another way It looks like the GFS has more precip there in N MS and N Bama streaking east that runs into the mtns. I think that looks makes more sense than the drier look from the Euro. A slight flatter trend with the wave would lessen that precip, but a slightly tighter wave would increase the precip there....razor thin adjustments going forward are key Nah you're good. I was just stating the obvious in a way. Hopefully we'll see the Euro come around to more precip for North GA/WNC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 DT'S 1st call map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 8 minutes ago, griteater said: Upper jet over Mid Atlantic is ideally positioned too Hky...good setup in Carolinas, details notwithstanding The lack of erosion of the 500mb low over the MS Valley is impressive on the euro. That doesn't happen too often. Thinking this will generate a good amount of QPF/widespread. Wouldnt be shocked to see some last minute beefing up of the totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 As Grit noted on the jet... When the upper low can stay in tact long enough without being sheared, we can a get a stronger jet streak over the east coast. YOu can see below on the GFS. The right rear quadrant of the jet max is over Southeast. This causes air aloft to vacate quickly/rise and really wring out all available moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Katrina Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 I apologize for breaking in but im new to this weather forum. Will Alabama receive any wintry weather ? thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 I didn't know this site still existed, I haven't used it in years, but this is a better look at what the snowfall totals were from the 00z GFS for GA. http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php?STATIONID=FFC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 10 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: As Grit noted on the jet... When the upper low can stay in tact long enough without being sheared, we can a get a stronger jet streak over the east coast. YOu can see below on the GFS. The right rear quadrant of the jet max is over Southeast. This causes air aloft to vacate quickly/rise and really wring out all available moisture. Nice I can see why you said that the totals that the models are showing may be too low. Thanks for showing and explaining that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY1894 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 06z nam looks a little further SW or sharper with pac wave at hr 24, slight more amped I guess. Really expect to see some more adjustments on the models, could go either way, but the american models are clearly trending more amped/more neutrally tilted trough. Still believe east of 85 will be place to be in NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 15 minutes ago, Katrina said: I apologize for breaking in but im new to this weather forum. Will Alabama receive any wintry weather ? thanks Not sure where in Alabama you are but Northern Alabama does have a chance to see some Wintery precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Noticeable northward shift with the precip shield on 6z Nam through 39. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, Tyler Penland said: Noticeable northward shift with the precip shield on 6z Nam through 39. It seems to be slower also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skbl17 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 We've got a winter storm watch from Peachtree City! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Large improvement on precip for AL/GA. 00z NAM (12km) 06 NAM (12km) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uscJustin06 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 NWS GSP issued a winter storm watch for upstate south carolina Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 QPF went up by almost two tenths on the 6Z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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