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Winter Storm 1/6 - 1/8, 2017


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1 minute ago, HWY316wx said:

Here are 2 of the precip type models.  Looks like it's all snow in that sweet spot in GA.

gfs_ptype_thick_atl_10.png

gfs_ptype_thick_atl_11.png

Um, that would be my back yard.  GFS has had that bulls eye maxima between Atlanta and Athens for quite a few runs.  Do feel better with the 00z coming in a bit colder.  18z was getting borderline.

 

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41 minutes ago, WidreMann said:

Yeah, but let's be honest, BL temps are going to be a problem. It's going to be sunny-ish on Friday and the cold is moving in with the storm. Any speedup in precip or temps being a little warmer on Friday and that could kill hours of precip that could be snow. Won't help with ground temps either.

These events are tricky.  Its not always getting sun.  Places further SW which will see no sun on Friday can get killed by precip moving in too early and wet bulbing them down too early.  When its 44/20 you don't necessarily want the precip to start because you can saturate into the mid or upper 30s.  I've seen that one happen before.

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Just now, packbacker said:

Sick gradient in NC...30 miles between.  RDU 30 miles from 0.4" and 20 miles 1"+.  That was a big shift on the GEM and slower, it must have been deep h5 low.

 

 

I was just discussing this earlier. Both the GFS and CMC show this same tight gradient...those on the northern end of that precip max. streak are getting the most snow in their respective states. It's amazing how similar CMC and GFS look now.

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Just now, Pilotwx said:

Big Frosty we are running out of time! The models can't makeup their minds 1 says snow the next model says nada! It might be time for a WV map? Na not yet but come tomorrow I'm breaking it out 

 

Looks like Imma gonna have to head east :mellow:  Need a lot of EURO love tonight... And a Miracle to boot.  

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30 minutes ago, weatherfide said:

I think that was 1992. I remember it because I was downtown in college at the time and people on the radio were calling in 8" amounts in Fayetteville.

Hey, Kyle!  Might have been.  One of those two spring ULL in recent years gave me 8, and a spring storm late March in the 80's gave me 7.  Had the second worse ice storm down here in the early 80s..second only to Atl 73, and since I was in a pine forest did way more damage around my house. Over 1 1/2 inches. Was on a bit over an acre and you couldn't find the ground anywhere.  We had bon fires from weeks in the neighborhood.  No power for 11 days, and I had mine back in Buckhead in 73 in a week.  Of course, only official totals count, but I know what I experienced, lol.  Lived in Midtown until 1980 and never saw totals like I have down here, and I know it's because the closer you are to the storm the more precip you get in heavy bands.  Trouble is you get left out when folks north of the Air Port are getting hit good. I was smack in the def zone of that ULL and it really came down.  Had the ground not been so warm it would have been much more, but it was melting fast to cool it down enough for what was left to stick.  T

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24 minutes ago, LovingGulfLows said:

Btw at hours 48-54, there's a pesky 925 warm nose that wedges itself through East GA....it erodes eventually, but it's part of the reason why those areas aren't seeing high snow accumulation because the precip is there.

 

925th.conus.png

Yep, and if I'm not mistaken this feature is why the GFS has been throwing some higher totals up into the upstate and NE GA mountains as well as parts of western NC. Where I'm sitting at I like it, as long as it doesn't get any stronger. But I do feel for my friends to the southeast who always get bitten by the warm nose...

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