mackerel_sky Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 1 minute ago, Cold Rain said: Regardless of snow threats, the upcoming torch and mega SER has vanished from the guidance. That's good. Way to go man! That negative nancy vibe you were working with, wasn't working! I thought you were joining the legion of gloom! Now, let's see the GFS bring the funk, in a bit!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Looks similar to last Euro Ens run with around 16 of the 51 members with 2 inches or more in areas of our forum outside of the mtns...and around 7 with more than 6 inches in places Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillerA Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Gsp disco Long term /Wednesday night through Sunday/... as of 230 PM EST Sunday...the last couple of runs of the medium range guidance have been a bit more consistent. But the deterministic 12z European model (ecmwf) and GFS still have some disagreements on our sensible weather for Thursday thru Saturday. This is due to a large blocking upper high over the Gulf of Alaska, with short wave energy ejecting out from under it and interacting with a persistent Great Lakes upper trough. The GFS phases the energy and brings a vigorous vort lobe across the County warning forecast area on Thursday. This energy squeezes out a brief shot of moisture and with very cold low-level thicknesses, would support nearly all snow across the County warning forecast area (but mainly in the mountains). Meanwhile, the European model (ecmwf) shears out the energy and keeps a much flatter upper flow across the eastern conus, gradually digging a long wave trough across the central and then eastern Continental U.S. Friday thru Saturday. The previous run of the European model (ecmwf) had a very wet storm system associated with this trough for Friday and Saturday, but the 12z run keeps most of the moisture across the Gulf of Mexico and up along the Carolina coast. The ecwmf would still suggest a dry day on Thursday and cloud with a chance of precip Friday night thru Saturday. So with all that said above, the wpc preference and this forecast went close to the consensus of the GFS/ec/naefs ensemble means. This still gives a nod to the quick shot of moisture Thursday, then trends drier for the rest of the forecast. And this looks good given the new European model (ecmwf) trending drier. Any snow accums should be confined to the NC mountains, unless the trough ends up deeper and the precip falls during the overnight when temps will be cooler. Cold high pressure is expected to build in behind that system, with temps about 5 to 10 degrees below normal thru next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 UK and ARPEGE are interesting for the first wave. The ARPEGE pops a nice low off the coast and has precipitation breaking out across the SE with a nice vort digging. UK is similar just don't have access to the precipitation/vort maps past 72 hours unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 9 minutes ago, MillerA said: Gsp disco Long term /Wednesday night through Sunday/... as of 230 PM EST Sunday...the last couple of runs of the medium range guidance have been a bit more consistent. But the deterministic 12z European model (ecmwf) and GFS still have some disagreements on our sensible weather for Thursday thru Saturday. This is due to a large blocking upper high over the Gulf of Alaska, with short wave energy ejecting out from under it and interacting with a persistent Great Lakes upper trough. The GFS phases the energy and brings a vigorous vort lobe across the County warning forecast area on Thursday. This energy squeezes out a brief shot of moisture and with very cold low-level thicknesses, would support nearly all snow across the County warning forecast area (but mainly in the mountains). Meanwhile, the European model (ecmwf) shears out the energy and keeps a much flatter upper flow across the eastern conus, gradually digging a long wave trough across the central and then eastern Continental U.S. Friday thru Saturday. The previous run of the European model (ecmwf) had a very wet storm system associated with this trough for Friday and Saturday, but the 12z run keeps most of the moisture across the Gulf of Mexico and up along the Carolina coast. The ecwmf would still suggest a dry day on Thursday and cloud with a chance of precip Friday night thru Saturday. So with all that said above, the wpc preference and this forecast went close to the consensus of the GFS/ec/naefs ensemble means. This still gives a nod to the quick shot of moisture Thursday, then trends drier for the rest of the forecast. And this looks good given the new European model (ecmwf) trending drier. Any snow accums should be confined to the NC mountains, unless the trough ends up deeper and the precip falls during the overnight when temps will be cooler. Cold high pressure is expected to build in behind that system, with temps about 5 to 10 degrees below normal thru next weekend. They are still not impressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 1 minute ago, cbmclean said: They are still not impressed. Takes a lot to get isohume excited! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 6 minutes ago, cbmclean said: They are still not impressed. They shouldn't be really. Novelty stuff on the models so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 25 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Way to go man! That negative nancy vibe you were working with, wasn't working! I thought you were joining the legion of gloom! Now, let's see the GFS bring the funk, in a bit!? lol I go where the data takes me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 13 minutes ago, cbmclean said: They are still not impressed. They took out any mention of winter weather from my 7 day forecast. Definitely not impressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Obviously the models trended much worse today in order for them to take snow out of the forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 They took out any mention of winter weather from my 7 day forecast. Definitely not impressed.Same here. Was removed this Morning. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDowell_Weather Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 I still have a one hour window from 11-12 a.m for a rain/snow mix on Thursday from gsp......yikes....smh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowpressure Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 We are just in that 5 day lose the storm only to bring it back window. Happens all too often. Patience, the pattern is better with lots of energy and cold air around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 56 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Just enough western ridge to Git-r-done! Closer... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Read some more good news today so just passing along from other forum. Larry says EPS is forcasting mjo into 8 territory mid month and and AO is forecasted to be in tank mid month. Larry says if we get that combo then we could be rocking late Jan. So just food for thought down the road. I'm more interested in getting mby white late this week into next weekend. Hopefully it's white during next weekend so I can take advantage and enjoy it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 1 hour ago, snowlover91 said: UK and ARPEGE are interesting for the first wave. The ARPEGE pops a nice low off the coast and has precipitation breaking out across the SE with a nice vort digging. UK is similar just don't have access to the precipitation/vort maps past 72 hours unfortunately. If there is going to be suprise, miller A phased blowup, pay attn to ukmet espeacilly inside 120, preferably 96 as it will definetly sniff it out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 18z looks to be trending toward the Euro/Canadian with our s/w Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 19 minutes ago, packbacker said: Closer... Thanks for the trend image Pack...good trend. The GFS runs have the ridging behind the Pac wave that comes out, but the wave is too late to come out and too far north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 10 minutes ago, Wow said: 18z looks to be trending toward the Euro/Canadian with our s/w Thanks for the pbp btw wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 13 minutes ago, Wow said: 18z looks to be trending toward the Euro/Canadian with our s/w Regardless of outcome, out to hr99 on GFS, it's an improved look for the possible 2nd wave scenario. Looks like the Pac wave, or part of it may come out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 1 minute ago, griteater said: Regardless of outcome, out to hr99 on GFS, it's an improved look for the possible 2nd wave scenario. Looks like the Pac wave, or part of it may come out yep.. i'll take this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 On the digging northern stream first wave, there is very light snow across NC and northern SC at hrs 102-105..Thurs aftn/evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 540 line hugging the NC/SC border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Arctic boundary on the gulf coast and a potent s/w moving across. This should be a good setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason WX Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 2nd wave looks much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Too busy. the sw's are too close together. second system will be weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 2 minutes ago, Wow said: Arctic boundary on the gulf coast and a potent s/w moving across. This should be a good setup. This is what you been talking about... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Ridge popping nicely behind the wave along west coast. Snowing at 135 from Tulsa to Memphis to Asheville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 1 minute ago, SN_Lover said: Too busy. the sw's are too close together. second system will be weak. This looks good to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 1 minute ago, packbacker said: This is what you been talking about... This is exactly it. We've gone right back to yesterday's 0z run. Surface reflection may be different but the overall mid level output is what I'm wanting to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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