gwlee7 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 On 1/6/2017 at 11:24 PM, jburns said: That would depend on what direction it moves. Expand Point well taken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Returns west of Charlotte are beginning to backbuild. It's only a matter of time now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreensboroWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 On 1/6/2017 at 11:38 PM, kvegas-wx said: I hear you Wow....but all I see, like Frosty, is a firehose pointed straight at RDU and Norfolk. Dont get me wrong, while I would love a good snow I really dont need it. I'm just making the observation that the heaviest precip modeled earlier today seems to align with the radar presentation at present. And unless the radar blossoms (word of the day) significantly to the west of me and frosty, we are going to be talking about the B word by midnight. Time will tell. Expand Yes the "firehose" as you say is just like the models have been showing for days.....the models also show the precip blossoming over the Triad during the evening hours. Just hold tight and I think you'll be happy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gritsnc Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 On 1/6/2017 at 11:40 PM, Poimen said: The 22Z HRRR gives the Triad over a foot of snow, ending around 10-11am. Expand How much validity do most put into the HRRR at this stage? Just curious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 On 1/6/2017 at 11:46 PM, FallsLake said: Seems like the RAP has shifted ever so slight SE. 850 line will still divide the Triangle. QPF is a little lighter with ~1.50 now showing for our area. Definitely still overdone. HRRR not much change from before. Been sleeting here off and on for the last couple of hours. Would love to see that change to snow. Expand Awesome, thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Updated GSP map, virtually no changes, maybe increases if anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 On 1/7/2017 at 12:13 AM, SN_Lover said: Updated GSP map, virtually no changes, maybe increases if anything. Added more yellow shading to Rutherford county towards the west. Awesome. Thanks for posting Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Heck of a look from the RGEM for tomorrow about dawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 On 1/7/2017 at 12:13 AM, SN_Lover said: Updated GSP map, virtually no changes, maybe increases if anything. Expand Upped Hickory's most likely result from 6 inches to 7 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthWake33 Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 On 1/7/2017 at 12:16 AM, Jet Stream Rider said: Heck of a look from the RGEM for tomorrow about dawn. Expand How do you decipher the heavy sleet returns from the heavy snow returns when they are both that bright pink color? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 HRRR Totals went up and shifted 5-10 miles SE for RDU. 22z Top vs 23z Bottom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WFFaithful Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 On 1/7/2017 at 12:20 AM, SouthWake33 said: How do you decipher the heavy sleet returns from the heavy snow returns when they are both that bright pink color? Expand Snow returns are not that heavy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 On 1/7/2017 at 12:25 AM, Cary_Snow95 said: HRRR Totals went up and shifted 5-10 miles SE for RDU. Expand sure did, every little bit matters. still shows wake not getting in any snow bands until midnight. hope it is sooner than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 is it just me or is our vort still digging? go to spc meso page and toggle between hr 2 and current.... the 5460 line is defintaely deepening still. anyone know if models had it still digging at this hour? I thought it was supposed to be heading east at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Touchet Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 It's too bad that this stuff falling is a mix. It's rain, snow, and mostly sleet. Coming down pretty heavy. If it were all snow, it would be a very good amount of it. Just thought I would let you guys know that even though the radar shows heavy snow bands, it's actually mostly very large sleet. Almost hail like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 On 1/7/2017 at 12:25 AM, Cary_Snow95 said: HRRR Totals went up and shifted 5-10 miles SE for RDU. 22z Top vs 23z Bottom Expand That's what I'm talking about! USA! USA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 On 1/7/2017 at 12:27 AM, DopplerWx said: sure did, every little bit matters. still shows wake not getting in any snow bands until midnight. hope it is sooner than that. Expand RAP looks like it has shifted SE. From the crappy maps it looks like the 850s stay below freezing at RDU. QPF is still high as well ~1.50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
broken024 Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Any shift in 850s for south charlotte Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 On 1/7/2017 at 12:31 AM, FallsLake said: RAP looks like it has shifted SE. From the crappy maps it looks like the 850s stay below freezing at RDU. QPF is still high as well ~1.50 Expand Can you link me the RAP JK found it on pivotal, I was on TT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Latest HRRR run shows the slp a little stronger and a little slower too on those panels Cary_Snow95 posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 On 1/7/2017 at 12:38 AM, Jet Stream Rider said: Latest HRRR run shows the slp a little stronger and a little slower too on those panels Cary_Snow95 posted. Expand Which is odd, Delta on the other board thought the current slp looked south and weaker. Its a little elongated south of LA border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Things not looking good for significant snowfall in Wilson, NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Raine1212 Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 What are the chances if any that the snow line could drop a littlle further south? Or is pretty much on target. By the way whoever is in line to get the hard rain i have gotten should be a good hit of snow for you if you have the right temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 update on the 00z sounding for rdu. User Actions Follow Samuel Roback@Weathermansam77 Sounding coming in now. Solid sub freezing layer until about 850hPa. Maxed out around 1-2C around 800hPa Samuel Roback @Weathermansam77 13m13 minutes ago Samuel Roback Retweeted Samuel Roback 0C isolthermal layer above the melting layer to about 750hPa. Now balloon is in a mixed phase cloud and temp is <0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowinnc Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 On 1/7/2017 at 12:47 AM, DopplerWx said: update on the 00z sounding for rdu. User Actions Follow Samuel Roback@Weathermansam77 Sounding coming in now. Solid sub freezing layer until about 850hPa. Maxed out around 1-2C around 800hPa Samuel Roback @Weathermansam77 13m13 minutes ago Samuel Roback Retweeted Samuel Roback 0C isolthermal layer above the melting layer to about 750hPa. Now balloon is in a mixed phase cloud and temp is <0 Expand Ok, I'm doing my best to learn and I'm getting a little better but could you please put that into weather for dummies form please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 I'm gonna tell you what, the qpf isn't gonna disappoint. The radar is amazing. Congrats to all of you who are seeming snow and sleet. I sincerely mean that. It's the one thing we all work so hard for. It's nice to bring it out of the digital universe and into the realm of reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderwolf Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 On 1/7/2017 at 12:53 AM, snowinnc said: Ok, I'm doing my best to learn and I'm getting a little better but could you please put that into weather for dummies form please? Expand There is a layer about 1000ft above the surface that is above freezing with temperatures at or below freezing elsewhere in the column. The layer is roughly 1000ft thick, meaning the snow will melt as it falls through the layer resulting in sleet or freezing rain at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QC_Halo Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 On 1/7/2017 at 12:54 AM, Cold Rain said: Congrats to all of you who are seeming snow and sleet. I sincerely mean that. It's the one thing we all work so hard for. Expand Hahahah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Triad WSW bumped up to 6-9" now. Hmmm.....radar is filling in quickly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowinnc Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 On 1/7/2017 at 12:57 AM, thunderwolf said: There is a layer about 1000ft above the surface that is above freezing with temperatures at or below freezing elsewhere in the column. The layer is roughly 1000ft thick, meaning the snow will melt as it falls through the layer resulting in sleet or freezing rain at the surface. Expand So if I'm reading things correctly it means we are stuck with sleet, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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