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Winter Storm 1/6 - 1/8, 2017


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  On 1/6/2017 at 11:24 PM, Jet Stream Rider said:

Looking at the dynamics on the hemisphere water vapor, the entire system looks amazing, expansive and massive. Just getting started.

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Indeed.  The more this s/w trends sharper/south, the more GOM moisture is going to be picked up.  We could be looking at some big QPF numbers here.

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Everyone is looking to the southwest for the precip.  Well, here's what's also happening "upstream" to the northeast for the cold temps so many are needing. 

It was 32.9 here in Colfax (next to GSO) with light snow when I got home from work at 5:15.  In one hour, the temp had dropped to 31.3 and the snow had all but stopped.  Now an hour and 15 minutes later, it's down to 30.9 with VERY light snow.  So, the moral of the story is that the colder air, at least here in Colfax at the surface, is working its way in.  Winds are Northeast at 10.  I hope these colder temps make it as far south as possible for everyone wanting more wintry precip. 

TW

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  On 1/6/2017 at 11:27 PM, Benholio said:

Does a stronger s/w give a bigger warm nose? I have a feeling much of NGA that was expecting snow is going to get all sleet.

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I don't think we're going see much more of a warming trend this is this more of an overrunning event and the dynamics of the storm itself are rather weak, but the moisture fetch could be more expansive.

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  On 1/6/2017 at 11:26 PM, Wow said:

Indeed.  The more this s/w trends sharper/south, the more GOM moisture is going to be picked up.  We could be looking at some big QPF numbers here.

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All that moisture represented by the returns off the west coast of Fla looks to become entrained and move north into the system as well.

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If we want the moisture to change trajectory, we need a surface low to develop to help push the moisture back.  If it is just overrunning with no lp, don't expect the trajectory to change much.  I think we have a low that is in the process of developing and we're seeing the moisture start to backbuild.

TW.

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  On 1/6/2017 at 11:29 PM, tarheelwx said:

Everyone is looking to the southwest for the precip.  Well, here's what's also happening "upstream" to the northeast for the cold temps so many are needing. 

It was 32.9 here in Colfax (next to GSO) with light snow when I got home from work at 5:15.  In one hour, the temp had dropped to 31.3 and the snow had all but stopped.  Now an hour and 15 minutes later, it's down to 30.9 with VERY light snow.  So, the moral of the story is that the colder air, at least here in Colfax at the surface, is working its way in.  Winds are Northeast at 10.  I hope these colder temps make it as far south as possible for everyone wanting more wintry precip. 

TW

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Temp just fell a few degrees here too. 31 now with accumulating sleet.

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  On 1/6/2017 at 11:26 PM, burrel2 said:

I'm worried for the upstate. Looks like the 800 to 850mb warm nose will move all the way almost to the southern escarpment at the height of the precip tonight.  I'm thinking the only places that remaining all snow will be from north of pickens to travelers rest to maybe campobello.

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Agree with this. Just like Feb 2015. In fact my temp is actually rising now. We absolutely MUST, with NO exceptions, already have the cold air in place here in SC for a snowstorm to work out and we don't this time. I can not remember ONE time that the cold air got over the mountains in time for snow with a system like this.

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  On 1/6/2017 at 11:30 PM, Wow said:

I don't think we're going see much more of a warming trend this is this more of an overrunning event and the dynamics of the storm itself are rather weak, but the moisture fetch could be more expansive.

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Agree, really feel good right now. Guys don't get fooled by radar. Mathew East said this a.m. folks would freak looking at radar about supper time tonight. It's just now getting going down below us, qpf want be a problem, espeacilly as SLP comes across North Florida latter tonight and off Ga coast.

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  On 1/6/2017 at 11:34 PM, Wow said:

You look good to me

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I hear you Wow....but all I see, like Frosty, is a firehose pointed straight at RDU and Norfolk.  Dont get me wrong, while I would love a good snow I really dont need it.  I'm just making the observation that the heaviest precip modeled earlier today seems to align with the radar presentation at present.  And unless the radar blossoms (word of the day) significantly to the west of me and frosty, we are going to be talking about the B word by midnight.  Time will tell.

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  On 1/6/2017 at 11:35 PM, tarheelwx said:

If we want the moisture to change trajectory, we need a surface low to develop to help push the moisture back.  If it is just overrunning with no lp, don't expect the trajectory to change much.  I think we have a low that is in the process of developing and we're seeing the moisture start to backbuild.

TW.

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I hope you're right, If not just about all will miss me to the SE. 

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  On 1/6/2017 at 11:38 PM, kvegas-wx said:

I hear you Wow....but all I see, like Frosty, is a firehose pointed straight at RDU and Norfolk.  Dont get me wrong, while I would love a good snow I really dont need it.  I'm just making the observation that the heaviest precip modeled earlier today seems to align with the radar presentation at present.  And unless the radar blossoms (word of the day) significantly to the west of me and frosty, we are going to be talking about the B word by midnight.  Time will tell.

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Just watch. B)

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  On 1/6/2017 at 11:09 PM, Cold Rain said:

Yep good point.  Any good trends on the WRAPs and HRRRRRRs?

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Seems like the RAP has shifted ever so slight SE. 850 line will still divide the Triangle. QPF is a little lighter with ~1.50 now showing for our area. Definitely still overdone. HRRR not much change from before. Been sleeting here off and on for the last couple of hours. Would love to see that change to snow.

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