beanskip Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 On 1/6/2017 at 6:39 PM, SnowNiner said: Matt East in his video mentioned he thought the 850 line would set up somewhere SW of CLT and NW of the city should stay 90% snow. Sitting at Mt Island lake, about as far NW Mecklenburg County you can be, I hope that tune stays. The NW trend can stop now! Expand SW OR SE of CLT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 On 1/6/2017 at 6:39 PM, SnowNiner said: Matt East in his video mentioned he thought the 850 line would set up somewhere SW of CLT and NW of the city should stay 90% snow. Sitting at Mt Island lake, about as far NW Mecklenburg County you can be, I hope that tune stays. The NW trend can stop now! Expand Warmest panel on the latest HRRR brings rain to the south tip of Meck and Wake counties Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 I need to add another image for Wake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 EuroWX says Fort Mill sees 9" of snow, Rock Hill .9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Here it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 On 1/6/2017 at 6:41 PM, beanskip said: SW OR SE of CLT? Expand Sorry, yeah SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jenkins Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 On 1/6/2017 at 6:42 PM, Queencitywx said: EuroWX says Fort Mill sees 9" of snow, Rock Hill .9 Expand Helluva gradient! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
broken024 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Should still switch to snow tomorrow morning south of charlotte right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 On 1/6/2017 at 6:44 PM, griteater said: Here it is Expand That sucks if that's the case. HRRR always shows that warmer version, many times it's right. Hopefully it trends back south. At that point it's not even below freezing at the surface...slop fest. Hopefully that's wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 On 1/6/2017 at 6:41 PM, griteater said: Warmest panel on the latest HRRR brings rain to the south tip of Meck and Wake counties Expand pfew! If that image happened my house in Concord would be getting smoked with ++snow. Gonna be a long evening and night watching where the transition line set up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
farleydawg79 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Any chance dynamic cooling can help us in EGA (Athens). Our temp profiles right now are killing me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 On 1/6/2017 at 6:48 PM, Wow said: That's the northern limit? Expand Yes, that's pretty much the warmest panel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 On 1/6/2017 at 6:46 PM, Amos83 said: pfew! If that image happened my house in Concord would be getting smoked with ++snow. Gonna be a long evening and night watching where the transition line set up Expand Are you on the west side toward the mills? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 On 1/6/2017 at 6:38 PM, Cold Rain said: Awesome, thank you. So last question for future learning...if this storm were stronger (let's say it were to bomb out, which it won't...but if it did), would that drag the 850 low farther south in better proximity to the surface cyclone? I realize that if it were strengthening rapidly, it would gain latitude, in which case all features would eventually be north. I guess I'm just wondering if it were stronger, would the 850 low be closer to the surface cyclone farther south? Expand Good question! The answer depends on where the strongest baroclinicity (i.e., temperature gradient) is. Right now the system is weak because the baroclinicity is starting out diffuse and the front at 850hPa is detached from where the front is at the surface (which is why there are p-type issues in the first place). As the storm intensifies, these baroclinic zones will get closer together due to frontogenesis (which just means tightening of the temperature gradient). This pulls the sfc cyclone closer to the 850hPa low, and the 850hPa low pulls closer to the sfc cyclone. In this case, the sfc vortex is still stronger than the 850-hPa low which is barely closed, so the 850-hPa vortex is probably more likely to migrate towards the sfc cyclone than vice versa over time (and why the warm nose should probably crash towards the NC/VA coastline at the end of the event). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 On 1/6/2017 at 6:51 PM, griteater said: Yes, that's pretty much the warmest panel Expand I should clarify that to the NE, it does throw some sleet back NW of Wake county on a few panels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 On 1/6/2017 at 6:39 PM, SnowNiner said: Matt East in his video mentioned he thought the 850 line would set up somewhere SW of CLT and NW of the city should stay 90% snow. Sitting at Mt Island lake, about as far NW Mecklenburg County you can be, I hope that tune stays. The NW trend can stop now! Expand I'm feeling good at you and I staying mostly snow once things settle in. Have to keep our eyes on Phil's coefficient radar loop though. Grit should feel prettt good too, Wow and QC are sitting best when it comes to keeping mixing at bay. Edit:. And then there is the latest HRRR. Gonna be close here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 On 1/6/2017 at 6:51 PM, Queencitywx said: Are you on the west side toward the mills? Expand yeah actually right on 85 about a mile from Afton Village Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 On 1/6/2017 at 6:53 PM, phil882 said: Good question! The answer depends on where the strongest baroclinicity (i.e., temperature gradient) is. Right now the system is weak because the baroclinicity is starting out diffuse and the front at 850hPa is detached from where the front is at the surface (which is why there are p-type issues in the first place). As the storm intensifies, these baroclinic zones will get closer together due to frontogenesis (which just means tightening of the temperature gradient). This pulls the sfc cyclone closer to the 850hPa low, and the 850hPa low pulls closer to the sfc cyclone. In this case, the sfc vortex is still stronger than the 850-hPa low which is barely closed, so the 850-hPa vortex is probably more likely to migrate towards the sfc cyclone than vice versa over time (and why the warm nose should probably crash towards the NC/VA coastline at the end of the event). Expand Great stuff as always. Thank you. Really helps illustrate how all of these processes relate to each other. Hopefully, we can crash the warm nose east a little sooner than forecast with this one, though that's not seeming like a high probability at present. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Looks like the 925's are bending around the Charlotte area and heading down I-85. The cold air aloft is stuck in the west corner of SOuth Carolina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 On 1/6/2017 at 6:54 PM, WxKnurd said: I'm feeling good at you and I staying mostly snow once things settle in. Have to keep our eyes on Phil's coefficient radar loop though. Grit should feel prettt good too, Wow and QC are sitting best when it comes to keeping mixing at bay. Expand Yeah, I hope so, everything I've seen so far other than the HRRR keeps the 850s SE of CLT proper the whole time starting at midnight or so. To me this is a quick hitter so if we get into sleet, I think the lower 3 inch calls will be a good bet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 What is the best radar to use that shows CC mode? I've lost the link for it. I'd like to be able to watch my 3000 ft snowstorm on the computer tonight. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Latest HRRR at hour 18. looks like the Triangle is being hit hard: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 On 1/6/2017 at 7:01 PM, Cold Rain said: What is the best radar to use that shows CC mode? I've lost the link for it. I'd like to be able to watch my 3000 ft snowstorm in the computer. Thanks! Expand http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/ One I use under NEXRAD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSU_Pi Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 On 1/6/2017 at 7:01 PM, Cold Rain said: What is the best radar to use that shows CC mode? I've lost the link for it. I'd like to be able to watch my 3000 ft snowstorm on the computer tonight. Thanks! Expand http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=RAX-N0C-0-24# Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 So how accurate is the HRRR for say 10-20 miles on the snow/IP gradient? I am literally that close in Cary when it comes to the latest HRRR. Is the high res usually pinpoint tight at this range or could it be off?---even way off one way or the other?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi 2h2 hours ago If nothing else, the GFS is stubborn on attempt at all time record lows in central NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 On 1/6/2017 at 7:02 PM, FallsLake said: Latest HRRR at hour 18. looks like the Triangle is being hit hard: Expand Holy cow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 On 1/6/2017 at 7:04 PM, SN_Lover said: Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi 2h2 hours ago If nothing else, the GFS is stubborn on attempt at all time record lows in central NC Expand BRUTAL if true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Thank you guys. What's the right tilt setting? Or is that even worth messing with? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 It looks as if GSP bumped up the LKN area in Meck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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