mckinnonwg Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Most recent HRRR model run has 0" of snow now for my area....west of Atlanta. Dang that 850 warm is killing us. Surface continues to hover at 34/35. With the day not yet at one. Worried the cool won't get to us in time. It's going to be a frozen mess with very little snow I am afraid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Local Yokel Wx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 On 1/6/2017 at 4:16 PM, BlueRidgeFolklore said: Looks good to me. I have a gut feeling that most of these areas will pan out on the high end of those estimates. Expand Your earlier comment on Mt Pisgah picking up the higher amounts or a foot seems possible and thankfully we can watch it go down via this webcam... http://brpwebcams.org/cam/10/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 On 1/6/2017 at 4:06 PM, Supercane said: Was going to ask the same thing. Just looking at those maps, that doesn't look as terrible from CLT to RDU as the P-type maps. Maybe the modeled warm nose is stronger at a slightly lower or higher level than 850mb? Expand By the way Supercane and Packbacker, remember back in the summer how we talked about +QBO/Cool ENSO winters being better for snow chances than -QBO/Cool ENSO winters...ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDeac Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 With the amount of arctic air pouring in, and already starting to make it over the mountains, I really struggle to see how surface temps would support plain rain for the upstate, CLT, and even points further south and east. Sure 850s may torch and we end up with a sleetfest, but I'm just not seeing this as a rainstorm (yet). I'm also hoping the low deepens closer to the warm waters (72+) of the gulf stream off SC/SE NC rather than the relatively cold waters just offshore, which would allow winds aloft to scour out the WAA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 On 1/6/2017 at 4:34 PM, localyokelweather said: Your earlier comment on Mt Pisgah picking up the higher amounts or a foot seems possible and thankfully we can watch it go down via this webcam... http://brpwebcams.org/cam/10/1 Expand Wahhh?! Heck yea! I didn't even know they had one up there. These type of storms are where Pisgah really cashes in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 On 1/6/2017 at 4:33 PM, mckinnonwg said: Most recent HRRR model run has 0" of snow now for my area....west of Atlanta. Dang that 850 warm is killing us. Surface continues to hover at 34/35. With the day not yet at one. Worried the cool won't get to us in time. It's going to be a frozen mess with very little snow I am afraid. Expand Having lived all of my life in Carrollton I would say there will be more sleet than snow but I could be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 On 1/6/2017 at 4:23 PM, HWY316wx said: MBY had been in the bullseye on the GFS, now I am thinking I may get hosed. That warm nose just sucks. Expand You might end up having to deal with more sleet than expected but looks like you should start seeing sleet mixed in maybe as early as late this afternoon..certainly by 0z. You are right on the line aloft like many..a few miles will make a big difference as far as time of changeover using 850mb temps (low level temps are much more in your favor) . Trust me you are in a lot better spot than i am...which is why i'm heading for the hills lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 On 1/6/2017 at 4:33 PM, mckinnonwg said: Most recent HRRR model run has 0" of snow now for my area....west of Atlanta. Dang that 850 warm is killing us. Surface continues to hover at 34/35. With the day not yet at one. Worried the cool won't get to us in time. It's going to be a frozen mess with very little snow I am afraid. Expand The HRRR right now shows a huge division from NW side to SE side. It more or less never turns the southern suburbs over til maybe the last hour or two. I don't know if I buy that because those are some low DPs just to the north. I think surface cold is being underestimated slightly by the HRRR by you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 On 1/6/2017 at 4:28 PM, Queencitywx said: Expand This model knows exactly where I live. This sucks so bad! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 On 1/6/2017 at 4:35 PM, SnowDeac said: With the amount of arctic air pouring in, and already starting to make it over the mountains, I really struggle to see how surface temps would support plain rain for the upstate, CLT, and even points further south and east. Sure 850s may torch and we end up with a sleetfest, but I'm just not seeing this as a rainstorm (yet). I'm also hoping the low deepens closer to the warm waters (72+) of the gulf stream off SC/SE NC rather than the relatively cold waters just offshore, which would allow winds aloft to scour out the WAA. Expand The 925s are too warm. There's a ridiculous warm nose at 925mb for GA, SC, and parts of NC hours 6-12 based on the latest GFS run. That being said, I agree that Charlotte will have more sleet than rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mckinnonwg Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 On 1/6/2017 at 4:38 PM, Cold Rain said: This model knows exactly where I live. This sucks so bad! Expand Geez, you think you got it bad.......the GFS has this same slot, as well as the NAM, at 8+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phobos Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 On 1/6/2017 at 4:36 PM, Lookout said: You might end up having to deal with more sleet than expected but looks like you should start seeing sleet mixed in maybe as early as late this afternoon..certainly by 0z. You are right on the line aloft like many..a few miles will make a big difference as far as time of changeover using 850mb temps (low level temps are much more in your favor) . Trust me you are in a lot better spot than i am...which is why i'm heading for the hills lol Expand Long time lurker, weather enthusiast... I just recently moved to Braselton, Georgia.. just above I85. Do you have that map? Curious to see what the 850mb temps look like IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 On 1/6/2017 at 4:04 PM, BFF said: Grit, do you have links to any FGEN products? Lost my links for those. Expand College of Dupage has 850mb and 700mb FGEN - http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ FSU page has it for a mean layer - http://moe.met.fsu.edu/banding/ Here's the 850mb frontogenesis on the NAM as seen from NW of CLT to GSO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 On 1/6/2017 at 4:39 PM, LovingGulfLows said: The 925s are too warm. There's a ridiculous warm nose at 925mb for GA, SC, and parts of NC hours 6-12 based on the latest GFS run. That being said, I agree that Charlotte will have more sleet than rain. Expand Are the 925mb temps supposed to retreat because according to the SPC mesoscale analysis page they're subfreezing across N. GA (0°F line S of I-20; running parallel to I-85). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 On 1/6/2017 at 4:41 PM, mckinnonwg said: Geez, you think you got it bad.......the GFS has this same slot, as well as the NAM, at 8+ Expand Man that's terrible. Sorry man. It would be nice to over-perform for just once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 On 1/6/2017 at 4:42 PM, toxictwister00 said: Are the 925mb temps supposed to retreat because according to the SPC mesoscale analysis page they're subfreezing across N. GA (0°F line S of I-20). Expand It's mainly a problem for Eastern GA. 925s are fine for the Atlanta area and most of North GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 On 1/6/2017 at 4:33 PM, mckinnonwg said: Most recent HRRR model run has 0" of snow now for my area....west of Atlanta. Dang that 850 warm is killing us. Surface continues to hover at 34/35. With the day not yet at one. Worried the cool won't get to us in time. It's going to be a frozen mess with very little snow I am afraid. Expand I would not use the HRRR for temp profiles. Just use it for the reflectivity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 On 1/6/2017 at 4:44 PM, LovingGulfLows said: It's mainly a problem for Eastern GA. 925s are fine for the Atlanta area and most of North GA. Expand It basically starts just east of 285, thats probably why the HRRR more or less freezes that FZRA or PL line from 01-05Z right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 You can see the 925mb warm nose really well here at 21z. There's also a warm nose at the surface in the same areas so they don't get below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Ukie close to 0z,1008 off Charleston at 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 On 1/6/2017 at 4:30 PM, Wow said: For once, it would be kind of nice to see a storm over-perform from what the models are showing. Is Jan '03 the last one, or Feb '04? Expand Feb 2004. Big time over performer, We doubled and almost tripled forecast totals. Thinking I have a shot for this storm to get into my top 5 all time greatest NCSNOW events here. Not sure it'll make it but its got a shot to push the envelope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 On 1/6/2017 at 4:46 PM, SnowGoose69 said: It basically starts just east of 285, thats probably why the HRRR more or less freezes that FZRA or PL line from 01-05Z right there. Expand GFS is a little more generous when it comes to that warm nose and keeps it farther east. HRRR kind of screws me though. Hoping the GFS temp profile verifies so I can get more sleet than rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 I'm really starting to worry about temps. It's warmed up way more than expected. Already 39 degrees and its almost noon. Wouldn't be surprised if it hits 45. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 On 1/6/2017 at 4:22 PM, broken024 said: Any chance ULL tracks south of what is being shown now? Expand I would say no. It's tracking farther north than ideal for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phobos Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 On 1/6/2017 at 4:44 PM, LovingGulfLows said: It's mainly a problem for Eastern GA. 925s are fine for the Atlanta area and most of North GA. Expand What do the 925s need to be at? They appear to be at 1c and the 850s at 4c at my specific location in far nothern Barrow county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 On 1/6/2017 at 4:31 PM, BIG FROSTY said: Had a few flurries in Pilot Mountain NC about an hour ago. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Expand Try some of that head and shoulders, they say it works pretty good. Think you can get 5-6. Long live the Ukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 On 1/6/2017 at 4:36 PM, Lookout said: You might end up having to deal with more sleet than expected but looks like you should start seeing sleet mixed in maybe as early as late this afternoon..certainly by 0z. You are right on the line aloft like many..a few miles will make a big difference as far as time of changeover using 850mb temps (low level temps are much more in your favor) . Trust me you are in a lot better spot than i am...which is why i'm heading for the hills lol Expand I don't blame you. I have a lot of friends in Athens who are just super upset with this setup. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phobos Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Sorry if i'm asking too specific questions in regard to my location. I'm just trying to get a better handle on things and learn as much as possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 On 1/6/2017 at 4:50 PM, phobos said: What do the 925s need to be at? They appear to be at 1c and the 850s at 4c at my specific location in far nothern Barrow county. Expand If you want snow, the entire column needs to be below freezing(both 850s and 925s). If you want more sleet instead of rain, you need the 925s to be below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 im going to ride the gfs until the wheels fall off. would be a jackpot rdu hit IF it verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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