jc697 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 On 1/5/2017 at 6:08 PM, HurricaneTracker said: Most of western NC (mountains) are nearly blanked as well. Huge difference compared to the GFS, but certainly lines up better with CMC, RGEM, and NAM. Expand I've been thinking that too for the last couple of days. GFS has been off by itself. Didn't want to post until a met did due to being bashed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mckinnonwg Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 On 1/5/2017 at 6:23 PM, jc697 said: I've been thinking that too for the last couple of days. GFS has been off by itself. Didn't want to post until a met did due to being bashed. Expand Last night, the 00Z Euro, CMC, and GFS were as closely aligned moving closer to the event. So many assumed it would start to balance. To see this today really just throws everybody for a loop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 On 1/5/2017 at 6:23 PM, jc697 said: I've been thinking that too for the last couple of days. GFS has been off by itself. Didn't want to post until a met did due to being bashed. Expand Ukmet lines up with the gfs, it's not on its own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 12z BUFKIT totals for selected locations: KATL: 4.3" snow, 1.5" sleet KBHM: 1" Snow KCLT: 9.4" snow KGSO: 10.8" snow KGSP: 7.2" snow(does lose .28 to RNSN mix) KHKY: 4.3" snow KRDU: 12.4" snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sarcean Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 On 1/5/2017 at 6:30 PM, Queencitywx said: 12z BUFKIT totals for selected locations: KATL: 4.3" snow, 1.5" sleet KBHM: 1" Snow KCLT: 9.4" snow KGSO: 10.8" snow KGSP: 7.2" snow(does lose .28 to RNSN mix) KHKY: 4.3" snow KRDU: 12.4" snow Expand I would take that KGSO total in a heartbeat but think it will be half of that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild Weather Monger Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 While disappointing to many, lets see what the EPS look like. GEFS had great consistency among it's members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 I think the EPS will tell us something, several members last night had little to no snow but many had more. I am hoping that it sticks to a majority of members with at least an inch or two- if not that that is cause for concern. This system is *very* sensitive to small changes in the track of the vort max, I do think we also need to remember how most of the GEFS members were basically identical to the Op. Again, no cliff diving for me yet, but a bit closer to the edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 On 1/5/2017 at 6:13 PM, Cary_Snow95 said: RDU looks like 7-8" to me? Expand Was heading out the door just eyeballed where the line was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpStateCAD Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 On 1/5/2017 at 6:16 PM, griteater said: Just looked at the UKMet. It's really weird with the models this morning. It's like they were converging together last night...now the GFS and UKMet like a sharpened wave and more storm and the Euro and Canadian like a quicker, late hitter. Temper the GFS amounts I guess, but I would lean more toward the GFS/UKMet solution come go time, JMO Expand Good call.....I think in the end, most systems do end up a blend of the various models. Each models bias have to be factored in as well as any obvious errors in how they are handling the data. However it is somewhat surprising that at this late hour the GFS and Euro are so far apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthWake33 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 On 1/5/2017 at 6:30 PM, Queencitywx said: 12z BUFKIT totals for selected locations: KATL: 4.3" snow, 1.5" sleet KBHM: 1" Snow KCLT: 9.4" snow KGSO: 10.8" snow KGSP: 7.2" snow(does lose .28 to RNSN mix) KHKY: 4.3" snow KRDU: 12.4" snow Expand Thanks QC. Is this from the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 On 1/5/2017 at 6:47 PM, SouthWake33 said: Thanks QC. Is this from the euro? Expand 12z GFS I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 I think i'll take the middle road between the Euro and GFS and go with 1-2" here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mckinnonwg Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 On 1/5/2017 at 6:51 PM, Snowless in Carrollton said: I think i'll take the middle road between the Euro and GFS and go with 1-2" here Expand I just started thinking that idea as well....will put Carrollton at 2-3 and that might be pushing it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 My current call for the Atlanta Metro is 1-4" But at this point, who knows? On 1/5/2017 at 6:52 PM, mckinnonwg said: I just started thinking that idea as well....will put Carrollton at 2-3 and that might be pushing it Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 On 1/5/2017 at 6:30 PM, Queencitywx said: 12z BUFKIT totals for selected locations: KATL: 4.3" snow, 1.5" sleet KBHM: 1" Snow KCLT: 9.4" snow KGSO: 10.8" snow KGSP: 7.2" snow(does lose .28 to RNSN mix) KHKY: 4.3" snow KRDU: 12.4" snow Expand GFS is cake and many would take what it gives. Wish this area had a site. I can only assume based on GSP, CLT, HKY and AVL. You can access data here. Click on Cobb Data once you choose a site http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/ To edit, KFQD does well on the 12GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joc111 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 On 1/5/2017 at 6:30 PM, Queencitywx said: 12z BUFKIT totals for selected locations: KATL: 4.3" snow, 1.5" sleet KBHM: 1" Snow KCLT: 9.4" snow KGSO: 10.8" snow KGSP: 7.2" snow(does lose .28 to RNSN mix) KHKY: 4.3" snow KRDU: 12.4" snow Expand Would you mind including KORF for future model total posts? Between the Mid-Atlantic and Southeastern forums, we're a bit homeless and overlooked. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 On 1/5/2017 at 6:56 PM, joc111 said: Would you mind including KORF for future model total posts? Thanks! Expand 17.1" for KORF from 12z GFS. Don't believe it. It's a trap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Wouldn't want to be forecasting this storm. Have to give credence to GFS's consistency and ensemble support, but it wouldn't be the first time it was consistently wrong. EE rule is in play here, which doesn't bode well for western NC/N. Ga. folks. I've seen the UK pull of a coup on these before. I don't know, NEVER comfortable with too many eggs in the GFS basket. Given the narrow swath of heavy snow, bust potential seems high. Would esp. hate to be a forecaster in central Alabama right now, given the last Euro run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mckinnonwg Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 On 1/5/2017 at 6:54 PM, Cheeznado said: My current call for the Atlanta Metro is 1-4" But at this point, who knows? Expand Doing a percentage check on the previous EURO ensemble and right around 54% of the Ensembles had a decent snow covering in Metro Atlanta. When it shifted on the most recent run, it caught me highly off guard to see so many ensembles push the model away. Interesting nevertheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 On 1/5/2017 at 6:58 PM, beanskip said: Wouldn't want to be forecasting this storm. Have to give credence to GFS's consistency and ensemble support, but it wouldn't be the first time it was consistently wrong. EE rule is in play here, which doesn't bode well for western NC/N. Ga. folks. I've seen the UK pull of a coup on these before. I don't know, NEVER comfortable with too many eggs in the GFS basket. Given the narrow swath of heavy snow, bust potential seems high. Would esp. hate to be a forecaster in central Alabama right now, given the last Euro run. Expand What is EE ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGirl205 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 On 1/5/2017 at 6:56 PM, SouthernStorms said: The mets here in bama are on both extremes. some saying nothing at all and some (Spann) saying 3" for my area. Expand I understand, I live in the Birmingham area. I guess it depends on which model they use. I'm going to keep up with the updates from the NWS Bham office as a guide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
odell.moton Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Yup in the end mets are gonna get bashed because maps are all over the place can't wait to see the social media backlash smh wouldn't want to be in their shoes Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Getting snow is never easy in GA and AL and this storm is an example of that. It's frustrating but its just a part of living down here. We just don't know what will happen until it's actually happening. Expect nothing, and hope for a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernStorms Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 I am beginning to think this is the worst time of year to be a MET in the SE. Very high potential for busted forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 On 1/5/2017 at 6:59 PM, Snowless in Carrollton said: What is EE ? Expand "EE rule" goes back to when the NAM was called the ETA model. The "rule" is -- if the ETA and the Euro (E and E) agree, you should take it to the bank. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 On 1/5/2017 at 6:59 PM, Snowless in Carrollton said: What is EE ? Expand The Ee rule was an agreement with the EURO and old ETA (now the NAM) at 84 hours. However, both models are former shadows of themselves and no longer do I apply it like in years past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 FWIW the Canadian ensemble mean is a bit wetter farther north and has the ATL area at about 0 at 850 even at 00Z Sat. So as I have been saying, this one is on a knife's edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 On 1/5/2017 at 7:09 PM, Stormsfury said: The Ee rule was an agreement with the EURO and old ETA (now the NAM) at 84 hours. However, both models are former shadows of themselves and no longer do I apply it like in years past. Expand Welcome Mike! Lets see how it plays out as the cards continue to fall. Skip many old timers around here have been down this rabbit hole many times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 On 1/5/2017 at 7:09 PM, Stormsfury said: The Ee rule was an agreement with the EURO and old ETA (now the NAM) at 84 hours. However, both models are former shadows of themselves and no longer do I apply it like in years past. Expand Good to see you in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 From Eric Webb: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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