Wow Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 On 1/5/2017 at 3:05 PM, Cheeznado said: No, its a LOT drier in GA Expand Sorry, was just looking at the 500mb maps. Yeah i see what you mean there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Definitely doesnt look as robust but still a nice event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 On 1/5/2017 at 3:06 PM, Wow said: Yep. Some times too much resolution can screw up the sfc profile with so many little vorts moving ahead it can't get a consolidated LP in place fast enough. Expand Precisely...too many shiny things for the model to chase to lead down the wrong trail. On 1/5/2017 at 3:07 PM, NorthGaWinter said: Lol, the gfs has beaten the euro and others, but watch it cave to the NAM Expand It's funny how the solution on the table now with widespread snow is close to the GFS from Monday regarding snow coverage. The EURO has finally hopped on board. If the 12z NAM tomorrow shows this then I would have some pause. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 On 1/5/2017 at 3:10 PM, Queencitywx said: Definitely doesnt look as robust but still a nice event. Expand This thing is going to change all day long guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 On 1/5/2017 at 2:31 PM, Lookout said: Indeed..has been a bit too fast as noted by wpc. that said, the nam and other models are showing precip heavy enough that i would expect we are going to start seeing some dynamical cooling effects. indeed, you can see hints of it already. Note the 0c showing up at 850c below...in general 850mb temps are 3c colder across central ga compared to the 06z run...in part because of that heavy precip. As we get closer i think we will see more of that...these type of things though are normally something the models have a hard time picking up on until we get close. It's very possible that there could be a sudden crash of temps to the south of the stable 0c isotherm at 850 to 950mb and a sudden changeover sooner than the models would indicate. Expand I noticed that as well...I would think I could have a shot at the dynamic cooling max around here since I will have the heaviest precipitation rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 I should say the RGEM still looks about the same for places like Raleigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 On 1/5/2017 at 3:13 PM, Queencitywx said: I should say the RGEM still looks about the same for places like Raleigh. Jeremy did the RGEM push Precip further north and west as opposed to the last run?Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 On 1/5/2017 at 3:15 PM, BIG FROSTY said: Jeremy did the RGEM push Precip further north and west as opposed to the last run? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Expand East Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazaroo Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Yeah, I thought more digging of the shortwave in the SW was a good thing. Weird how now the nam and rgem seem worse. Hopefully just too many things going on for them to properly place the low off the gulf as others mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 On 1/5/2017 at 3:13 PM, Queencitywx said: I should say the RGEM still looks about the same for places like Raleigh. Expand Yea, everyone west of CLT are losers on the RGEM...everything east does ok. CLT is just on the .25 side of things. I suspect you'll see precip totals ramping up further west as we go on through the day and into tomorrow. Just a gut feeling there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 On 1/5/2017 at 3:17 PM, Queencitywx said: EastThanks I'm on the road working can't look it up. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 On 1/5/2017 at 3:17 PM, Queencitywx said: East Expand Yeah, a 48 I felt the RGEM looked nothing like the NAM. It was headed more OTS I thought than bringing this close to NYC. The biggest similarity between the NAM/RGEM were they got drier in SRN areas and both seemed colder there too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 On 1/5/2017 at 3:15 PM, BIG FROSTY said: Jeremy did the RGEM push Precip further north and west as opposed to the last run? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Expand You can follow here. Only out to 24http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=rgem®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2017010512&fh=24&xpos=0&ypos=176 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 06Z vs 12Z RGEM: https://imgflip.com/gif/1h4joy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillerA Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 In case anyone wants to join Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 rgem looks great for rdu. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 On 1/5/2017 at 3:20 PM, Cheeznado said: 06Z vs 12Z RGEM: https://imgflip.com/gif/1h4joy Expand I'm still clinging to my 1 inch up here on the worst guidance solutions. If GFS still trends north you have to through out these runs of the NAM and RGEM today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 On 1/5/2017 at 3:21 PM, MotoWeatherman said: I'm still clinging to my 1 inch up here on the worst guidance solutions. If GFS still trends north you have to through out these runs of the NAM and RGEM today. Expand 1 or even 2 " would be a pretty big letdown after what the models showed overnight and the GFS all along Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 I like the RGEM for my area.. it didnt look too bad for areas further West just need a little better moisture transport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Im sorry...NAM and RGEM look unrealistic....if the globals start going that way, ok...I will take notice for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Like I said earlier looks like my only hope is in the German model! Who would've thunk it LolSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Isn't the shortwave or waves on shore today? How is the placement looking at realtime, vs model initiation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 On 1/5/2017 at 3:27 PM, mackerel_sky said: Isn't the shortwave or waves on shore today? How is the placement looking at realtime, vs model initiation? Expand Believe there was some discussion earlier today about how it's looking more robust in the pacific NW than many models had it, closest to the German model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 oh man,,,at 12 hours the GFS is way stronger with the wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Also, it's worth noting that for NC soil temps are in the lower 40s, down from the lower 50s yesterday. They should slowly decrease over the next 24 hours, hopefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Out to 24 wave is sharper over the 4 corners....temperatures over the SE are the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Out to 30 it's a tick warmer over the SE, wave is no doubt less positive tilt, a little stronger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 out to 33, temps look similar to 18z for nc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 At 33 it's sharper and digging a little more in OK. Also heights across Carolinas are a tad higher...still trending... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 GFS is out to 39 and looks to be a good run and is about to go BOOM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.