mackerel_sky Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 On 1/5/2017 at 12:10 AM, oconeexman said: Its not just with snow it happens in rain events as well it seems. The finger of precip extends way out in front of the system and coming from the direction it is usually hits ne ga and upstate. Not sure if its the upslope affect or what. Expand Had a good example of this , the January '11 event! Strong band to about Augusta to CAE, some 40dbz returns , long before the main precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 On 1/5/2017 at 12:24 AM, PackGrad05 said: I chalk this up to the enormous spread of the ensembles. The EURO ENSEMBLE has a spread from 0" to 6+" for RDU... equal chance of any scenario... This has bust potential all over it with a different track or 850s not verifying, which I'm not sold on yet. Expand Where is 850 currently progged to go? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thess Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 On 1/5/2017 at 12:21 AM, CherokeeGA said: From FFC:Their Game of Thrones theme is cute, but I feel dumb because I don't see the "House" icons in the legend actually being used anywhere. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Meanwhile this is what our storm is doing in Oregon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 On 1/5/2017 at 12:22 AM, superjames1992 said: The SREF plumes are still looking pretty anemic for a lot of areas. We're talking about a mean of around an inch for CLT and RDU, and 1.5" in GSO. We'll see if they turn for the better tonight. Expand sref plumes gave me well over a foot inside 24hrs in the 2015 storm and i got 4", dont trust them like i used to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 On 1/4/2017 at 11:32 PM, J.C. said: Jim Gandy here in Columbia is forecasting no snow for CAE and is using the RPM. He will probably end up accurate. Expand The RPM is awful until you get to about 36 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 With the GFS continuing to indicate that Atlanta could receive 3"-6" of snow, it is worth listing Atlanta's 3" or greater snowstorms since 1930: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 On 1/5/2017 at 12:29 AM, Cheeznado said: The RPM is awful until you get to about 36 hours out. Expand Yeah the RPM they were showing on Atlanta's evening news was pretty pathetic too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 18z Arpege looks good. It spread precip a little farther west in to the NC mountains/foothills compared to the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Been away from the computer a while, EPS is the best it has been with this storm for ATL, 80% of the members have accumulations, average is 1-2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 On 1/5/2017 at 12:32 AM, donsutherland1 said: With the GFS continuing to indicate that Atlanta could receive 3"-6" of snow, it is worth listing Atlanta's 3" or greater snowstorms since 1930: Expand I was actually there for that 1992 one. I don't believe it was forecast well at all but was on a weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 On 1/5/2017 at 12:22 AM, superjames1992 said: The SREF plumes are still looking pretty anemic for a lot of areas. We're talking about a mean of around an inch for CLT and RDU, and 1.5" in GSO. Expand How do they show more in the west then the east??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 TWC has RDU snowing from ~10pm Fri thru ~5:30pm Sat. That's some stretch run if it pans out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 On 1/5/2017 at 12:35 AM, SnowGoose69 said: I was actually there for that 1992 one. I don't believe it was forecast well at all but was on a weekend. Expand I have seen 2 6" storms since 1982, but those were father north towards marietta Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Probably not going to happen, but Atlanta has not had a 6" snowstorm in 34 years ( at the airport). It's bound to happen again someday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 On 1/5/2017 at 12:35 AM, SnowGoose69 said: I was actually there for that 1992 one. I don't believe it was forecast well at all but was on a weekend. Expand That must have been quite a memorable storm for the Atlanta area. It is still quite challenging to forecast winter precipitation in Atlanta (I'd probably be more conservative than the GFS with a 2"-4" idea right now). Fortunately, today's models are well ahead of what was available then. It will be interesting to see how the storm plays out as it moves across the Southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 On 1/5/2017 at 12:25 AM, CentralNC said: Where is 850 currently progged to go? Expand I'd like to see this too. Does someone have it to post? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 On 1/5/2017 at 12:22 AM, superjames1992 said: The SREF plumes are still looking pretty anemic for a lot of areas. We're talking about a mean of around an inch for CLT and RDU, and 1.5" in GSO. Expand I don't think it's anything to be worried about. It's generally underestimates at this lead from my experience...WRF-ARW and WRF-NMM are pretty awful at this lead outside of 48 hours. I'd wait until tomorrow night or so to utilize the SREF guidance. Just my two cents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 On 1/5/2017 at 12:34 AM, burrel2 said: 18z Arpege looks good. It spread precip a little farther west in to the NC mountains/foothills compared to the 12z run. Expand Interesting to note that the arpege and the Icon both initialized their 18z runs with the northern stream further west than where the gfs or nam had it for their initialization frames. I think this forced the s/w to dig further southwest and gave it time to phase more with the northern stream. Compare on the Meteocentre site. Very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 18z GFS throwing more low level moist air further north. GIF of last 6 runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 You can see the GFS getting juicier and ticking north over the last 6 runs as well. Nothing major, but enough to throw precip further back towards the mntns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 The ECMWF op had the 850 line near southern wake... but the ensembles varied in where it was. The ensemble had a big spread of precip for RDU from 0" to 6+"...and an equal chance of each scenario.. Fishel highlighted this on the 6pm news Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 On 1/5/2017 at 12:49 AM, Jonathan said: You can see the GFS getting juicier and ticking north over the last 6 runs as well. Nothing major, but enough to throw precip further back towards the mntns. Expand I think I have a 7-9" bullseye right over my house! It's tiny and looks like the path our tornado took!?! Coincidence, I think not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 First 2 frame are the initialization frames for the ARPEGE and ICON. Last is the NAM. All 18z runs. You can see how they have the northern jet further west and south than the NAM (and the GFS). The models overall have been trending with this movement since yesterday. This difference is forcing the s/w further southwest which changes the timing and gives it room to go neutral tilt by 60 hrs. Icon goes full neg tilt by 72 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 On 1/5/2017 at 1:04 AM, Wow said: First 2 frame are the initialization frames for the ARPEGE and ICON. Last is the NAM. All 18z runs. You can see how they have the northern jet further west and south than the NAM (and the GFS). The models overall have been trending with this movement since yesterday. This difference is forcing the s/w further southwest which changes the timing and gives it room to go neutral tilt by 60 hrs. Icon goes full neg tilt by 72 hrs. Expand A Neutral Tilt would be amazing. A boy can only hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 On 1/5/2017 at 1:06 AM, HWY316wx said: A Neutral Tilt would be amazing. A boy can only hope. Expand Here's the ICON and NAM at 48 hrs. This is the difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Touchet Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 On 1/5/2017 at 12:49 AM, Jonathan said: You can see the GFS getting juicier and ticking north over the last 6 runs as well. Nothing major, but enough to throw precip further back towards the mntns. Expand This looks about right to me. Living in Bham, we usually get this dry slot where it goes above and below us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 On 1/5/2017 at 1:13 AM, Wow said: Here's the ICON and NAM at 48 hrs. This is the difference. Expand What effect would it going neutral have for central nc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 On 1/4/2017 at 11:04 PM, Lookout said: well the 18z icon is pretty ridiculous Expand THATS ICONIC!!! (SORRY...couldn't resist! I will take the warning. Ha.) Hope all is well Man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 On 1/5/2017 at 1:15 AM, Cary_Snow95 said: What effect would it going neutral have for central nc Expand more precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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