griteater Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 On 1/4/2017 at 4:48 PM, LovingGulfLows said: The Ukmet looks like a decent track for ATL - Athens - Greenville - Charlotte - RDU. Expand Fully agree. It's a little colder this run. Looks like a good storm for those areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 On 1/4/2017 at 4:48 PM, LovingGulfLows said: The Ukmet looks like a decent track for ATL - Athens - Greenville - Charlotte - RDU. Expand It appears better off to the east of ATL, but they are not in a bad spot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 On 1/4/2017 at 4:47 PM, Queencitywx said: It looks like UKMET QPF for CLT is around half an inch. Expand Thanks! that's great if we can get it. Would be a nice 6 inches or so I'd imagine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 On 1/4/2017 at 4:50 PM, griteater said: Fully agree. It's a little colder this run. Looks like a good storm for those areas Expand That is pretty close to a classic RDU snowstorm track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 On 1/4/2017 at 4:50 PM, SnowGoose69 said: It appears better off to the east of ATL, but they are not in a bad spot Expand Yep, you're right....hopefully the precip shield will blossom a little more across N MS/AL/GA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 So, it looks like the Euro, UK, and Canadian are all pretty consistent with their amounts for NC, with the GFS showing less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 On 1/4/2017 at 4:50 PM, griteater said: Fully agree. It's a little colder this run. Looks like a good storm for those areas Expand Is it just me or has the UKMET really led the way on this thing? It's always been more amped and cold. Any reason not to put more faith in it than others? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 On 1/4/2017 at 4:50 PM, SnowGoose69 said: It appears better off to the east of ATL, but they are not in a bad spot Expand I'm more worried about the cold air dive than the precip. amounts honestly....the low track of north central Florida is prime for the line of cities I mentioned. I feel like this will be a moist storm.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGTim Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 I've seen posts about warm nose, but haven't seen anything about thunderstorms in gulf robbing moisture. Is that something to take into consideration with this system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 folks...please don't respond to obvious troll bait....just report them instead, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 On 1/4/2017 at 4:52 PM, Cold Rain said: That is pretty close to a classic RDU snowstorm track. Expand I agree Cold Rain... This track is usually good things for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 On 1/4/2017 at 4:52 PM, Cold Rain said: That is pretty close to a classic RDU snowstorm track. Expand Agree. Good trends today for CLT and RDU so far. HPC discussion overnight made mention of the Euro being the most amped solution "THE ECMWF IS THE MOST AMPLIFIED SOLUTION... THUS ALLOWING MUCH MORE MOISTURE RETURN AND SCOURING THE LOW LEVELS OUT QUICKER" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 On 1/4/2017 at 4:57 PM, Lookout said: folks...please don't respond to obvious troll bait....just report them instead, thanks. Expand Thanks for your swift moderation to keep out the riff-raff! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 On 1/4/2017 at 4:53 PM, SnowNiner said: Is it just me or has the UKMET really led the way on this thing? It's always been more amped and cold. Any reason not to put more faith in it than others? Expand The UK has been the first to show the general idea for several different storms the last few years. However, if memory serves it doesn't have as good of a track record fine tuning details from 3 days in or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 On 1/4/2017 at 4:53 PM, SnowNiner said: Is it just me or has the UKMET really led the way on this thing? It's always been more amped and cold. Any reason not to put more faith in it than others? Expand It led the way with the cold press when the other models were dropping it. It had some issues with the Pac wave coming out. One run it left it completely out off the Oregon coast. Another run it brought it in way north into Montana. Other than those 2 things, it's done quite well. It's maintained what looks to be the proper stream separation call for several runs now and has a moderate looking storm. What's strange is that I can remember all of those things, but I can't remember what my wife asked me to grab at the grocery store. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Will have to LOL if Euro is still a furnace everywhere in the SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Does anyone have the GEFS members? How they compare to the OP today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 On 1/4/2017 at 4:58 PM, rduwx said: I agree Cold Rain... This track is usually good things for our area. Expand Yes. We have a great play ready, talent lined up on the field, getting down and set to snap the ball. Still time for the refs to blow a whistle for illegal formation though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 On 1/4/2017 at 5:03 PM, SnowGoose69 said: Will have to LOL if Euro is still a furnace everywhere in the SE Expand hush....that's not a laughing matter lol 12z uk is definitely colder than the 0z run. valid 12z friday. 12z run 0z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 On 1/4/2017 at 4:52 PM, Cold Rain said: That is pretty close to a classic RDU snowstorm track. Expand Yes it looks that way. At hour 72, the 850mb T 0 line is on I-95 so there could be sleet in areas east of Raleigh at 12z Sat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
malak05 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 On 1/4/2017 at 5:09 PM, Lookout said: hush....that's not a laughing matter lol 12z uk is definitely colder than the 0z run. valid 12z friday. 12z run 0z run Expand Need the UKMET/Euro to continue that colder trend and have precp. ramp up a little more for people west of SC/NC to get them in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 How's the 12z GEFS looking? Can't check it right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Most GEFS members look good for all of north GA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 On 1/4/2017 at 5:12 PM, Wow said: How's the 12z GEFS looking? Can't check it right now. Expand Mean snow through 96 hours from the model page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 On 1/4/2017 at 5:13 PM, Cheeznado said: Most GEFS members look good for all of north GA Expand Wow! That's an amazing look for ATL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Soundings and partial thickness should start to become useful tomorrow once that heavier axis is firmed up, it's almost there, Columbia to Norfolk, as Allan stated, could be some pingers along the 95 corridor, bad for roads, even worse for accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 UKIE Deserves to be crowned champion and gets the belt after this one of it hangs on and verifies.been tracking this storm hard for over a week now and it has owned every other model, espeacilly the 5h pattern cold press last week when they all dropped it but the ukie. Also 1st to nail lp track along gulf Coast off ne florida coast. Great disco guys keep it up. Hate being swamped at work on days like today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Someone should do a trend loop on the GFS Ensemble Mean snow totals...I can't get to it right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLO Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 On 1/4/2017 at 5:18 PM, LithiaWx said: Wow! That's an amazing look for ATL Expand And CAE. I-20 special? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 No NW trend on the GEFS. Significant increase in the snow mean. It's up 1-2 inches vs the 6z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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