Met1985 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 On 1/4/2017 at 2:24 AM, NCSNOW said: That's a given now. We want as much left behind as possible don't get me wrong. But it's the energy oming down through the lakes hr 84ish and hoping the weak wave is on the gulf Coast and not halfway to the Yucatan per gfs. Expand Yeah we just need it to regain some of its characteristics as a decent wave. To kind of blossom to something decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QC_Halo Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Which model is being currently pbp'd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 On 1/4/2017 at 2:27 AM, QC_Halo said: Which model is being currently pbp'd Expand NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 looks quicker at 69, precip a little further nw and temps looks fine to me. not far off the 18z run. it is the long range nam though so take it with a grain of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Yep. SLP further north in N FL/S GA with more precip further NW. Snow breaking out in NC thru SE VA at 69hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Very quick as in, in and out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Ouch, temps are torching though when the precip rolls n... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 On 1/4/2017 at 2:39 AM, Jonathan said: Yep. SLP further north in N FL/S GA with more precip further NW. Snow breaking out in NC thru SE VA at 69hr. Expand There you go boys. Sitting dead right where the ukmet says it would be. Just needs a shot of liquior, viagara Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Looks like 2-3" for Central NC by 84 hours. Decent run from the NAM despite the interaction with the northern stream. We may want a mix between a little interaction and the energy digging south out west quicker. The Euro is a bit more south (out west with the s/w) than the GFS from the get go, with a bit more interaction too, which leads to a slight NW jog and not as suppressed. Ideally we'd want the s/w to halt and dig down on it's own, but I'm really starting to think that won't happen...so the silver lining here might have to be a lighter, more widespread event (<5") rather than a 6-10" localized to far SE NC. Good news is the NAM is horrible this far out (ha) and we still have the King to go tonight...huge run coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 On 1/4/2017 at 2:41 AM, Jonathan said: Ouch, temps are torching though when the precip rolls n... Expand Yep would be a rain to some snow in most of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Brick will be in here momentarily! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 The 00Z NAM @ HR 69 has the look of the GEM Run today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Losing the temps at this point, would really be a kick to the baguettes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 On 1/4/2017 at 2:42 AM, NCSNOW said: There you go boys. Sitting dead right where the ukmet says it would be. Expand Just 12 hours faster then the UK. NAM can be on the speedy side of things. That run wasn't great and still got snow across a lot of areas. I would take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Kind of strange how at hour 84, it develops a secondary band of snow in Central GA when the low is pretty far out to sea already....just really odd stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 On 1/3/2017 at 8:42 PM, Cheeznado said: Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Wth was that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 The NAM is really hauling anus. It needs to back off the exuberance a little bit and let the cold air settle in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 On 1/4/2017 at 2:47 AM, deltadog03 said: Wth was that? Expand American Garbage Model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 I feel like there were major convection problems on this run, but that may be just me. I feel like it had a good track for most of the board but not enough moisture with it. And the shear at the beginning was amazingly horrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 If I am not mistaken, the NAM is almost always FASTER than progged. It is still WAY early anyway... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 On 1/4/2017 at 2:48 AM, Cold Rain said: The NAM is really hauling anus. It needs to back off the exuberance a little bit and let the cold air settle in. Expand Before anyone lines up at the cliff, let see the rest of the 0z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 The para NAM is quite squashed FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 On 1/4/2017 at 2:50 AM, Rankin5150 said: If I am not mistaken, the NAM is almost always FASTER than progged. It is still WAY early anyway... Expand Yeah, and the track record at 60-84 hours isn't too great, that's why they developed a 4km NAM only out to 60 hours. This is ungodly fast...possibly due to NS interaction, possibly due to the NAM being NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 I hope the rest of the modeling runs are better, but the totals seem to be getting less and less with each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 On 1/4/2017 at 2:50 AM, CAD_Wedge_NC said: Before anyone lines up at the cliff, let see the rest of the 0z suite. Expand I was thinking we should go now. But now that you mention it, I'll hang on a little longer. In other news, I was thinking that we would start to see some significant shifts tonight with better data ingest. I guess the night is still young. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 On 1/4/2017 at 2:54 AM, Jon said: Yeah, and the track record at 60-84 hours isn't too great, that's why they developed a 4km NAM only out to 60 hours. This is ungodly fast...possibly due to NS interaction, possibly due to the NAM being NAM. Expand Touche Jon! Amen to that. Besides, the NAM sucks at calculating overrunning flow. Overrunning flow will change the dynamic for the speed of a system. Heck, it can change a forecast quickly. Again, echoing you...its the POS NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 On 1/4/2017 at 2:57 AM, Rankin5150 said: Touche Jon! Amen to that. Besides, the NAM sucks at calculating overrunning flow. Overrunning flow will change the dynamic for the speed of a system. Heck, it can change a forecast quickly. Again, echoing you...its the POS NAM. Expand How does it handle temps? Someone said its warm also? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 No way to hide it, NAM and NAM Para both were a nod to one of the worst case scenarios here...a late blooming quick hitter. Looked like the morning Euro, but worse/weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 On 1/4/2017 at 3:00 AM, mackerel_sky said: How does it handle temps? Someone said its warm also? Expand I'm not quite sure about present day, in relation to temps, however, back in the day, the NAM used to score pretty well on Temps, if I am not mistaken. A Pro can verify that, of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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