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Winter Storm 1/6 - 1/8, 2017


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  On 1/3/2017 at 7:21 PM, AsheCounty48 said:

Hasn't the JMA been pretty consistent along with the UKMET showing a sizable storm?

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It hasn't really been that consistent the past three days at all.

  On 1/3/2017 at 7:22 PM, GaStorm said:

Does the JMA improve in the closer time frames?

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All models do but I put the JMA down at the bottom for novelty purposes.  Just below the NAM.

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  On 1/3/2017 at 7:19 PM, MotoWeatherman said:

And while we are at it...here is the bottom dweller JMA for 12z Saturday.  Sign me up...LOL.

 

jma_T850_eus_5.png

jma_apcpn_eus_4.png

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Trying to equate temps listed and that fact that most of that falls Sat AM then I would imagine a swath of mostly snow from the Northern Border of GA to South Carolina and down well south of ATL of 5-8 inches of snow that's eyeballing the totals and temps?

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  On 1/3/2017 at 7:26 PM, malak05 said:

Trying to equate temps listed and that fact that most of that falls Sat AM then I would imagine a swath of mostly snow from the Northern Border of GA to South Carolina and down well south of ATL of 5-8 inches of snow that's eyeballing the totals and temps?

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If the JMA verified it would be pretty much all snow from the south ATL burbs northward.  But I don't trust it as much as I trust the NAM (Not Accurate Much) model.

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Correct me if I'm wrong, but it looks like we need that energy coming out of Canada to get some better seperation from the Pacific disturbance moving in off the coast of Oregon and slow down a tick as it dives into the GOM. The UKmet has been cosistant with a decent seperation (compared to the EURO) thus colder air and more snow into deeper parts of the S/E

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  On 1/3/2017 at 7:45 PM, FirstTimeCaller said:

Correct me if I'm wrong, but it looks like we need that energy coming out of Canada to get some better seperation from the Pacific disturbance moving in off the coast of Oregon and slow down a tick as it dives into the GOM. The UKmet has been cosistant with a decent seperation (compared to the EURO) thus colder air and more snow into deeper parts of the S/E

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I just want more separation.  The more connected the faster it moves and the less it develops which means less of everything.

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  On 1/3/2017 at 7:43 PM, Ji said:

LOL..in this winter. I would take that in  heartbeat for you guys down there

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Oh sure, I'm not hating that look in MBY.  That narrow strip and limited accumulations elsewhere is just dubious.  In the south, you want nice accumulations EVERYWHERE around you, especially to the south of you to feel somewhat confident. 

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  On 1/3/2017 at 7:18 PM, SnowNiner said:

I thought this was a nice post from Allan's twitter (Raleighwx)...para NAM looks pretty good at 84 hours.  NAM supposed to be better than it was at long leads. Good low position and cold at 84. EURO is my buddy, but I think this run is wonky. 

C1RG_vkUUAAaA8v.jpg:large

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I have a growing concern for temps in our area, so that looks good.  I can't shake that idea of the Euro being way off with its h5 ideas.  Only thing I can say is that the UKMet led the way with the stronger cold northern stream press to get us to this point, so maybe it is on to something

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  On 1/3/2017 at 7:45 PM, FirstTimeCaller said:

Correct me if I'm wrong, but it looks like we need that energy coming out of Canada to get some better seperation from the Pacific disturbance moving in off the coast of Oregon and slow down a tick as it dives into the GOM. The UKmet has been cosistant with a decent seperation (compared to the EURO) thus colder air and more snow into deeper parts of the S/E

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We want the s/w to separate from the northern stream faster so it can slow down and develop, and allow the northern wave to move across and establish high pressure ahead of it.  The longer it holds on with the northern stream, it weakens.

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  On 1/3/2017 at 7:51 PM, Wow said:

We want the s/w to separate from the northern stream faster so it can slow down and develop, and allow the northern wave to move across and establish high pressure ahead of it.  The longer it holds on with the northern stream, it weakens.

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Seems like the key to this whole thing takes place about 48 hours from now and seeing how separate the s/w can stay from the trough.  Do we start keying in on short term models at this point for clues like the RGEM and NAM, or are the globals still a better indicator? 

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  On 1/3/2017 at 7:47 PM, griteater said:

What's going to happen in the end SnowGoose? lol.....you always have good info with model biases etc.

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Someone once told me there is a tendency between the French/Euro model when they agree.  I cannot remember what it is, but someone in the SNE forum recently brought it up

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  On 1/3/2017 at 7:50 PM, griteater said:

I have a growing concern for temps in our area, so that looks good.  I can't shake that idea of the Euro being way off with it's h5 ideas.  Only thing I can say is that the UKMet led the way with the stronger cold northern stream press to get us to this point, so maybe it is on to something

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It's been a while since 99% of the model runs showed no temp problems for our area (just need a storm).  I know the NW trend lurks.  But if we get them all to go to crap at this point 4 days out, man that's going to be a punch in the gut. 

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