wncsnow Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 On 1/3/2017 at 6:39 PM, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: And to be honest with that track which is similar to the UK, one would have to believe that more moisture would be slung back to the West. Expand Honestly this scenario usually plays out with an I 85 and West snowstorm and mixing issues to the East for areas like CLT, RAL.. but thats climo.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 On 1/3/2017 at 6:41 PM, griteater said: I can see where the temps would have been a little warmer on that run, but going by h5 charts, the precip should have been there like the last run. Take a blend right now....probably a good call, but with NW trend ideas lurking as we get closer Expand On 1/3/2017 at 6:41 PM, Wow said: It's all down to phasing and wrapping up the energy within the s/w. So many variables with this one. These things can be hard to catch on to until you're within 24-36 hrs. Expand A bigger phase would bring it closer to the coast but also bring in colder temps alot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 I don't think moisture will be as much of a problem as people think when it's all said and done. Looks like the cold air issues are coming back for many in the SE based on Euro especially since the Banana high is no longer being modeled and supplying a nice source of cold air aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 On 1/3/2017 at 6:43 PM, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: From my perspective here in WNC I am still more worried about it missing me to my NW than to my SE....I've seen the NW trend too many times, it's made me a believer. Expand And in our area in the LEE, more times than not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 On 1/3/2017 at 6:40 PM, packbacker said: Lets see who wins, inside day 4 these models should have some skill at this range....hopefully one of these verify so someone gets a good snow. Hopefully the one in the middle... Expand That GFS map looks so wonky. Looks like there's THREE distinct "stripes" of accumulation. One in LA/MS, one in AL/GA then one in SC/NC. Just weird looking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 On 1/3/2017 at 6:42 PM, malak05 said: Every man/woman for himself I suppose I'll leave your middle one and go with #3 Expand Hah...I meant the middle snow storm track so the CMC, Euro looks warm, GFS is suppressed and CMC is in the middle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Something to keep an eye on is the first little system Thursday.. models have been showing a little more snow for VA and deepening that system after it heads OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 The timing on the Euro, someone said precip from this threat was in GA or Carolinas by Friday afternoon!? Is that correct, that could be a big issue with temps!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 On 1/3/2017 at 6:47 PM, mackerel_sky said: The timing on the Euro, someone said precip from this threat was in GA or Carolinas by Friday afternoon!? Is that correct, that could be a big issue with temps!? Expand More like sunrise Friday start time. Much quicker than the other models. For GA that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Looks like that map of the euro has the old dreaded dry slot for the foothills. LolSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Truly believe this will need the onshore sampling to determine meseoscale details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 On 1/3/2017 at 6:43 PM, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: From my perspective here in WNC I am still more worried about it missing me to my NW than to my SE....I've seen the NW trend too many times, it's made me a believer. Expand No chance it missses you NW...it may hug the coast but all models generally agree on this look at day 3 and then it has to hustle to get close to a neutral tilt by the time it hits AL/MS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 I'm confused with this EURO run due to the warm temps. The track seemed pretty much the same, so why was it warmer? Even though other models and runs have had different tracks, they're all pretty darn cold. In regard to temps at least this run seems all by itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 On 1/3/2017 at 6:42 PM, packbacker said: A bigger phase would bring it closer to the coast but also bring in colder temps alot? Expand I would think it would pull in warmer air aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 On 1/3/2017 at 6:49 PM, SnowNiner said: I'm confused with this EURO run due to the warm temps. The track seemed pretty much the same, so why was it warmer? Even though other models and runs have had different tracks, they're all pretty darn cold. In regard to temps at least this run seems all by itself. Expand No cold source. HPs to the north that were modeled yesterday are gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 On 1/3/2017 at 6:49 PM, SnowNiner said: I'm confused with this EURO run due to the warm temps. The track seemed pretty much the same, so why was it warmer? Even though other models and runs have had different tracks, they're all pretty darn cold. In regard to temps at least this run seems all by itself. Expand It was a few hours faster too. Didn't allow the cold to get as far south before the moisture arrived. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 On 1/3/2017 at 6:52 PM, Orangeburgwx said: still a chance it could revert? Expand Of course, but the trends aren't good for that so far. Need more separation between the northern stream energy and our s/w out west to allow a HP to build in between them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 On 1/3/2017 at 6:51 PM, Jonathan said: No cold source. HPs to the north that were modeled yesterday are gone. Expand Lol you must be smoking something because the HP is there but there is not enough space between the two waves for the cold air to work in further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 folks...getting a little tiresome hiding posts. Everyone needs to quit with so much banter like "i'll take number 1" and other off topic comments. if you want to do that there are two other threads for it. leave it out of this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 On 1/3/2017 at 6:55 PM, Met1985 said: Lol you must be smoking something because the HP is there but there is not enough space between the two waves for the cold air to work in further south. Expand Ok it exists, yes, but what good does it do when it's on the western side of the system? You know what I meant...there's not enough separation to allow one to setup to the north/east of the main wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 12z GFS ensembles are either feast or famine. Like has been mentioned many times already in this thread we are likely waiting until Wednesday to nail this thing down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 On 1/3/2017 at 6:49 PM, CaryWx said: Truly believe this will need the onshore sampling to determine meseoscale details. Expand This, way too early to call this anything but one model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 On 1/3/2017 at 6:56 PM, Jonathan said: Ok it exists, yes, but what good does it do when it's on the western side of the system? You know what I meant...there's not enough separation to allow one to setup to the north/east of the main wave. Expand Lol I saw you clarified that. I do think we need another her 24 hours so we have the wave onshore on the West Coast so it can be sampled better by the models. Hopefully there is more spacing between the two waves in the next 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 On 1/3/2017 at 6:57 PM, MotoWeatherman said: 12z GFS ensembles are either feast or famine. Like has been mentioned many times already in this thread we are likely waiting until Wednesday to nail this thing down. Expand The ensembles actually look pretty encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 On 1/3/2017 at 6:49 PM, SnowNiner said: I'm confused with this EURO run due to the warm temps. The track seemed pretty much the same, so why was it warmer? Even though other models and runs have had different tracks, they're all pretty darn cold. In regard to temps at least this run seems all by itself. Expand You'd have to compare the height contours over the NE, but the GFS presses the heights a little farther south, and also has much better stream separation between the NS trough over the Great Lakes and the wave digging into the 4 corners. This allows more cold air to filter in behind the northern stream trough. The 2 models have been converging with respect to the stream separation aspect, and I'd expect that to continue. If you go back 2 days ago, the Euro was squashing the wave even more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 On 1/3/2017 at 7:02 PM, griteater said: You'd have to compare the height contours over the NE, but the GFS presses the heights a little farther south, and also has much better stream separation between the NS trough over the Great Lakes and the wave digging into the 4 corners. This allows more cold air to filter in behind the northern stream trough. The 2 models have been converging with respect to the stream separation aspect, and I'd expect that to continue. If you go back 2 days ago, the Euro was squashing the wave even more Expand Thanks Grit, 12Z seems all alone on those aspects. Hopefully ensembles will be colder and colder on future EURO runs. Makes me very nervous with the EURO not on board, even though the Ukie is my#2 and it's still a go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Let's see the euro panel set first Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 All the big hits on the ensembles had s/w's that were slower. They broke from the northern energy earlier and were a bit stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 I thought this was a nice post from Allan's twitter (Raleighwx)...para NAM looks pretty good at 84 hours. NAM supposed to be better than it was at long leads. Good low position and cold at 84. EURO is my buddy, but I think this run is wonky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 And while we are at it...here is the bottom dweller JMA for 12z Saturday. Sign me up...LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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