LithiaWx Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 On 1/3/2017 at 6:22 PM, ajr said: Expand Wow euro cut totals for nearly everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 On 1/3/2017 at 6:22 PM, SN_Lover said: Totals cut a smidge. Expand A lit more than a "smidge" here.....:-( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Ptype map....how often do these things get colder as we get closer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 It's a bit less than the canadian IMBY but i'll still take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Euro just cut the total in half from the previous run. Seems like it is throwing darts hoping something will stick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 On 1/3/2017 at 6:23 PM, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: It's a climo deal. Always happens when you have a low coming from the west and dipping down into the Gulf. 48-72 hours out, a NW trend/shift will likely occur 90% of the time. That's why you like seeing the GFS send the low to Tampa, Florida right now. If you live NW of the current bullseye Expand It's a gfs bias. I've never heard the euro having a bias to eventually bring storms NW. Climo has nothing to do with a model bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 If the system went that far NW would it not be more amped than what the Euro just showed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 This Euro output makes more sense considering what the EPS has been showing. It will be interesting to see what the 12Z EPS has to say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 On 1/3/2017 at 6:26 PM, wncsnow said: This Euro output makes more sense considering what the EPS has been showing. It will be interesting to see what the 12Z EPS has to say Expand EPS has been S&E Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 On 1/3/2017 at 6:22 PM, Cold Rain said: Remember that time when we had that 1040 banana high showing up? Those were the days, huh? Expand Look at that gradient...it's usually a good sign for us. With that gradient would have thought it would have been wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 To me, it looks like the Low on the Euro is closer to the coast compared to the CMC, not as intense though as CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 I am done with this storm until the 00Z runs tonight. Too much stress model watching like this..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 On 1/3/2017 at 6:22 PM, Cold Rain said: Remember that time when we had that 1040 banana high showing up? Those were the days, huh? Expand Don't believe until you see the whites of its eyes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 On 1/3/2017 at 6:27 PM, packbacker said: Look at that gradient...it's usually a good sign for us. With that gradient would have thought it would have been wetter. Expand Pack, I will take that being almost 5 days out. Great setup for intensification imo. With a storm track like that, I would expect it to trend wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Another thing...our atlantic/ser is a touch stronger on this euro run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 On 1/3/2017 at 6:26 PM, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Well the Euro says I'm coming west young fellow Expand It very well may come more northwest on the gfs but to say the euro tends to trend NW is just not factually correct. You also dont know me or my age. I've been around long enough to have my share of knowledge and experience of winter events in the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 If you take a combination of the GFS and Euro you wind up with a decent 2 to 4 inch storm for people from atlanta to GSP to Raleigh with mixing issues south of that line. That's probably the best guess you could take right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nam0806 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 On 1/3/2017 at 6:31 PM, burrel2 said: If you take a combination of the GFS and Euro you wind up with a decent 2 to 4 inch storm for people from atlanta to GSP to Raleigh with mixing issues south of that line. That's probably the best guess you could take right now. Expand And really, who wouldn't take that right now? With all the guidance from the 12z model suite, I would say that is a fairly good estimate of what will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 On 1/3/2017 at 6:34 PM, malak05 said: Euro literally out to lunch on this one I believe... Expand Why? Any analysis to back this up besides the fact that you're from GA and you went from a solid storm to a dud? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Still some timing and spacing tweeks, but to me at 5h euro,can,ukmet all pretty much have the picture painted. Course those tweeks are gonna be big for everyone's micro climate, back yard. But we are seeing the consensus. I fully expect gfs to get in lock step before this time tommorrow. Then we can start trying to nail down the BL, temps,dps,exact qpf for our back yards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Well we have the Ukie rock steady, CMC steady with significant hits. GFS suppressed, and EURO with a decent track but just warm. No idea where this is going. Hoping for the Ukie at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 On 1/3/2017 at 6:34 PM, malak05 said: Euro literally out to lunch on this one I believe... Expand Idk if I would say all that. Its track is pretty consistent with the foreign models. Just not lining up with what we thought the precip shield should show. I guess the only thing I can say is it doesn't go negative and allow it to explode over the gulf stream like it normally would when it does go negative. Need a stronger vort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Just going to sit back and watch. What an enjoyable mystery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 On 1/3/2017 at 6:36 PM, SnowNiner said: Well we have the Ukie rock steady, CMC steady with significant hits. GFS suppressed, and EURO with a decent track but just warm. No idea where this is going. Hoping for the Ukie at this point. Expand EURO is just warm for areas south of 85 like Columbia to Fayetteville, still cold enough for CLT to RAL... bigger issue appears to be amount of moisture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
malak05 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 On 1/3/2017 at 6:35 PM, Jonathan said: Why? Any analysis to back this up besides the fact that you're from GA and you went from a solid storm to a dud? Expand No, Sarcasm in a friendly lil banter I do believe model runs of CMC,GFS, and even in long-range NAM last runs diverge from Temp issues greatly and literally complaints last night was Euro OPs didn't match ensembles so probably will be vice versa today just for madness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 On 1/3/2017 at 6:38 PM, wncsnow said: EURO is just warm for areas south of 85 like Columbia to Fayetteville, still cold enough for CLT to RAL... bigger issue appears to be amount of moisture Expand And to be honest with that track which is similar to the UK, one would have to believe that more moisture would be slung back to the West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nam0806 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 I've got to say though, after following many storms from the EasternWx and now AmericanWx days, this probably is the one that is the most intriguing in almost every aspect - track, strength, temperature, precipitation shield, model inconsistency even within 100 hours of final outcome. I agree with Wow, it is definitely an interesting mystery even within 3-4 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Lets see who wins, inside day 4 these models should have some skill at this range....hopefully one of these verify so someone gets a good snow. Hopefully the one in the middle... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 I can see where the temps would have been a little warmer on that run, but going by h5 charts, the precip should have been there like the last run. Take a blend right now....probably a good call, but with NW trend ideas lurking as we get closer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 On 1/3/2017 at 6:39 PM, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: And to be honest with that track which is similar to the UK, one would have to believe that more moisture would be slung back to the West. Expand It's all down to phasing and wrapping up the energy within the s/w. So many variables with this one. These things can be hard to catch on to until you're within 24-36 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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