Cheeznado Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 GFS has 2" for Atlanta. New Euro and EPS are very important runs, I will not buy a bigger event than that until they come on board. I would take 2" here in a heartbeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Para gfs is 15+ from wake county ne. Lot of posters need more than a ruler in se to measure para gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 On 1/3/2017 at 4:33 AM, broken024 said: Why does 18z para* come out when 0z models do? Expand para is the new GFS in beta mode if you will, so it probably doesn't get high priority in terms of getting it out in a timely manner...but they run it on a delayed basis for each model cycle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AshevilleCityWx Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 On 1/3/2017 at 4:30 AM, NC_WX10 said: Not seeing those areas as the best possible areas for this event. Southern and eastern areas are favored. Expand They get paid the big money for a reason tho. Their human forecast aligns with north-west trends IMO. Para is good for these areas with better temps than southern or eastern areas. I do think when all is said and done trends will favor the NC high country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Am I correct in assuming that the GFS vs the GFS Para runs match up? As in, the 18z GFS Para would use the same info the 18z GFS did, even though it comes out closer to the 0z? So with the 0z Para, it should match up with the 0z GFS...geez I hope that made sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 On 1/3/2017 at 4:36 AM, Queencitywx said: After that February 2015 storm, I don't feel good until I see it falling and laying. Id love to see precip maps on the ukie. Canadian does have UKIE meteograms, I think, somewhere on the GEM website. Expand The thing is that storm if I recall correctly didn't necessarily undergo a monster shift. It was about a 60-80 mile shift inside 60 hours which is always possible. Those who see the impacts remember it as being bigger than it was Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 UKMET actually ends up looking like the 18z GFS when comparing the H5 maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Para GFS, UK, and Canadian all big hits here. Crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 On 1/3/2017 at 4:38 AM, Jonathan said: Am I correct in assuming that the GFS vs the GFS Para runs match up? As in, the 18z GFS Para would use the same info the 18z GFS did, even though it comes out closer to the 0z? So with the 0z Para, it should match up with the 0z GFS...geez I hope that made sense. Expand It does, in theory, the 00z GFS Para should be a weaker version of the 18z GFS Para....that's what I would say anyway based on how the GFS is trending Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Did the GFS run just lose the high? Is that odd? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benholio Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 On 1/3/2017 at 4:38 AM, Cheeznado said: GFS has 2" for Atlanta. New Euro and EPS are very important runs, I will not buy a bigger event than that until they come on board. I would take 2" here in a heartbeat. Expand Yup, 2" is a great event here. The surface @ 0z GFS is an issue, though. It's above freezing in ATL for most of the event. It might be a struggle to get it to stick around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 On 1/3/2017 at 4:41 AM, Benholio said: Yup, 2" is a great event here. The surface @ 0z GFS is an issue, though. It's above freezing in ATL for most of the event. It might be a struggle to get it to stick around. Expand I didn't look but surface temps usually are not accurate this far out or sometimes even close in they are too warm because models don't resolve evaporative cooling so they think a 36/20 spread at the start of an event doesn't cool to 30 or 31. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 On 1/3/2017 at 4:06 AM, packbacker said: Complete cave to Euro...oh well. Time for bed. Expand Using this map and saw this stated someplace else, but see that energy over great lakes in ns. That's what the ukie keyed on to phase and go negative tilt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Did a quick test tonight...this is how the GFS initialized tonight and below are the 4 Globals and the GEFS/EPS. The GFS was a little weak at day 5, the Euro and EPS weren't even close and the CMC wasn't half bad. This is just one snapshot but was curious on how the models have done the past 5 days. Top is how GFS initialized and the bottom 6 are from 5 days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 On 1/3/2017 at 4:38 AM, AshevilleCityWx said: They get paid the big money for a reason tho. Their human forecast aligns with north-west trends IMO. Para is good for these areas with better temps than southern or eastern areas. I do think when all is said and done trends will favor the NC high country. Expand They may very well be right.... however the odds of that happening are going down with each model run. Tomorrow's WPC charts will be totally different unless the models change dramatically overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 On 1/3/2017 at 4:43 AM, NCSNOW said: Using this map and saw this stated someplace else, but see that energy over great lakes in ns. That's what the ukie keyed on to phase and go negative tilt Expand Where are the UK vort maps at this earlier? They don't come out on meteocentre for another 30 mins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 On 1/3/2017 at 4:42 AM, SnowGoose69 said: I didn't look but surface temps usually are not accurate this far out or sometimes even close in they are too warm because models don't resolve evaporative cooling so they think a 36/20 spread at the start of an event doesn't cool to 30 or 31. Expand I just looked and at hour 108 and it shows Atlanta just slightly above freezing, then warms up during the event at hour 114 to around 34 or 35. Really odd....I just don't think with a low that far south, surface temps would be a problem to be honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Better UK map..my goodness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 On 1/3/2017 at 4:47 AM, LovingGulfLows said: I just looked and at hour 108 and it shows Atlanta just slightly above freezing, then warms up during the event at hour 114 to around 34 or 35. Really odd....I just don't think with a low that far south, surface temps would be a problem to be honest. Expand Yeah, it's probably assuming diurnal heating which just doesn't happen during a snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 On 1/3/2017 at 4:48 AM, packbacker said: Better UK map..my goodness. Expand Miller A phase Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 CMC snow map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 On 1/3/2017 at 4:45 AM, packbacker said: Did a quick test tonight...this is how the GFS initialized tonight and below are the 4 Globals and the GEFS/EPS. The GFS was a little weak at day 5, the Euro and EPS weren't even close and the CMC wasn't half bad. This is just one snapshot but was curious on how the models have done the past 5 days. Top is how GFS initialized and the bottom 6 are from 5 days ago. Expand Awesome post... Definitely gives hope for our storm to trend stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 A low off Hatteras usually results in mixing issues here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 I wish we knew the entire path of the low on the Ukie.. On 1/3/2017 at 4:50 AM, griteater said: CMC snow map Expand Wow, I'd cash out on this and run. Haven't seen 6 inches in years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 On 1/3/2017 at 4:50 AM, BornAgain13 said: Wouldn't that be something if the UK won this thing! Expand I think it has held steady the last couple of days. I don't think it has had a run that backed down at all, and now looks like.it might be getting bigger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 GFS Parallel really is any interesting run since it keeps the wave intact looking very close to the 18z operational gfs as far has the impact to our area but also partially phases and brings the low up to Hatteras like the UKMET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 On 1/3/2017 at 4:47 AM, packbacker said: Where are the UK vort maps at this earlier? They don't come out on meteocentre for another 30 mins. Expand If you rerun the 0z gfs 500mb you can see for a brief frame that energy over GL sense the gom wave but they r to seperated. Had to be what caused ukie to explode I bet it came down backside of gulf wave , ala Jan 2000 redux. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AshevilleCityWx Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Crazy talk if you think a model won anything when its only Monday we are talking Saturday. Changes are still coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 On 1/3/2017 at 4:55 AM, Wow said: GFS Parallel really is any interesting run since it keeps the wave intact looking very close to the 18z operational gfs but also partially phases and brings the low up to Hatteras like the UKMET Expand It is, but thinking 00z Para would trend weaker given the overall GFS trends, but who knows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 On 1/3/2017 at 4:56 AM, AshevilleCityWx said: Crazy talk if you think a model won anything when its only Monday we are talking Saturday. Changes are still coming. Expand Everyone knows that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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