sctvman Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 On 1/2/2017 at 10:21 PM, packfan98 said: Expand Would be bad ice storm for our area in addition to the snow shown... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Man, the GFS is all in. Like being a little NW of the jackpot at this time, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 On 1/2/2017 at 10:18 PM, Queencitywx said: I'll always take my chance with colder air and less QPF. Expand amen to that. On 1/2/2017 at 10:18 PM, MotoWeatherman said: True...LOL. I've got some wiggle room up here. I've go room for a south trend and a north trend and stay safe. Ha. Expand amen to this too lol. nice to have a little breathing room as far as temps go. On 1/2/2017 at 10:19 PM, buckeyefan1 said: Northern CAE area....mby still looks icy from these crappy maps on my phone Expand it looks like mostly snow to me for columbia. maybe some sleet for a brief time but otherwise columbia looks pretty good too....south side sees more sleet with freezing rain confined to the coastal plain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 On 1/2/2017 at 10:21 PM, packfan98 said: Expand Thanks sir I'm right on the line as usual The changes are sooo subtle, but the outcome will have tremendous impacts down the road. Model mayhem continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Not liking these trends for western and northern NC. A definite step to the Euro. If the ensembles take a step to the Euro it may be cave time for the gfs at 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 On 1/2/2017 at 10:25 PM, Brick Tamland said: Man, the GFS is all in. Like being a little NW of the jackpot at this time, too. Expand think we need the euro to join in, seems mets are going with euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 On 1/2/2017 at 10:25 PM, Lookout said: amen to that. amen to this too lol. nice to have a little breathing room as far as temps go. it looks like mostly snow to me for columbia. maybe some sleet for a brief time but otherwise columbia looks pretty good too....south side sees more sleet with freezing rain confined to the coastal plain. Expand Thanks sir I'm preparing for my 32.7 deg rain now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 On 1/2/2017 at 10:24 PM, Jonathan said: Pretty huge step towards the EURO, as Matthew pointed out. Lots of stream interaction this time. This time tomorrow we'll just be praying for the SLP to be north of Jacksonville. Expand Showed up early in the run. 0z NAM will be the first indication of further movement to the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 On 1/2/2017 at 10:27 PM, NC_WX10 said: Not liking these trends for western and northern NC. A definite step to the Euro. If the ensembles take a step to the Euro it may be cave time for the gfs at 00z Expand Yeah it cut our totals pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 On 1/2/2017 at 10:24 PM, Jonathan said: Pretty huge step towards the EURO, as Matthew pointed out. Lots of stream interaction this time. This time tomorrow we'll just be praying for the SLP to be north of Jacksonville. Expand Yeah, this actually worries me some. I hope this change doesn't turn into a trend. I guess we'll just have to wait and see what the next model suite does, as always. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 On 1/2/2017 at 10:27 PM, NC_WX10 said: Not liking these trends for western and northern NC. A definite step to the Euro. If the ensembles take a step to the Euro it may be cave time for the gfs at 00z Expand wouldn't surprise me a bit, seems we get a little excited then down but things are going to change over the next few days, better for some and worse for others. wouldn't want to be in the bulls eye right now, maybe about Thursday would be a good time to be in the bulls eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Thanks guys. Have we had even one good Euro run with this thing yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 On 1/2/2017 at 10:31 PM, Cold Rain said: Thanks guys. Have we had even one good Euro run with this thing yet? Expand Couple of days ago I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 On 1/2/2017 at 10:28 PM, buckeyefan1 said: Thanks sir I'm preparing for my 32.7 deg rain now Expand ...lol i know reverse psychology when i see it Would be nice if the end result ended up being this more "middle of the road" solution between the the 12z gfs and 12z euro. The good news is even if the euro ends up being right and totals aren't high, it looks like flakes will fly for a lot of us in ga/sc/southern nc regardless at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 To me, this run is much more realistic....I have said before, a good euro and 12z GFS blend would do the trick and more likely...I would say the 18z GFS is pretty close to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 On 1/2/2017 at 10:31 PM, Cold Rain said: Thanks guys. Have we had even one good Euro run with this thing yet? Expand About 5 or 6 days ago lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 On 1/2/2017 at 10:35 PM, deltadog03 said: To me, this run is much more realistic....I have said before, a good euro and 12z GFS blend would do the trick and more likely...I would say the 18z GFS is pretty close to that. Expand Yeah, if that was a step to the Euro, and the Euro comes a step to the GFS which is still showing a big storm, then not sure what is bad about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 On 1/2/2017 at 10:30 PM, Met1985 said: Yeah it cut our totals pretty good. Expand I knew our totals would be cut down but not that much. Just not having a good feeling about this one in the northern mountains. I feel weird wishing for a NW trend right now. That is not in our DNA here in the south. But I'll be keeping a close eye on the ensembles this evening to see if they take on more of a Euro look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 On 1/2/2017 at 10:35 PM, Lookout said: ...lol i know reverse psychology when i see it Would be nice if the end result ended up being this more "middle of the road" solution between the the 12z gfs and 12z euro. The good news is even if the euro ends up being right and totals aren't high, it looks like flakes will fly for a lot of us in ga/sc/southern nc regardless at some point. Expand Euro was giving me 2-4 I believe so if it juices up just a tad and moves toward the GFS even a little I'm still good. Even if the GFS moves to the euro I should still see a few flakes flying and a couple of inches. I have in-laws driving down from philly and Delaware next weekend to attend my sons first B-day party. Could be a rough ride down here for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 On 1/2/2017 at 10:40 PM, NC_WX10 said: I knew our totals would be cut down but not that much. Just not having a good feeling about this one in the northern mountains. I feel weird wishing for a NW trend right now. That is not in our DNA here in the south. But I'll be keeping a close eye on the ensembles this evening to see if they take on more of a Euro look. Expand Yeah its pretty significant but I'm sure there will be lots more back and forth unless the Euro just busts everyone else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 I dont see how this is a trend towards the Euro. It just didnt dig as deep this time. 18Z GFS looks very reasonable to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 On 1/2/2017 at 10:44 PM, BornAgain13 said: I dont see how this is a trend towards the Euro. It just didnt dig as deep this time. 18Z GFS looks very reasonable to me Expand The lean toward the Euro was seen in the interaction between the vort max and the northern branch in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 GFS wasn't that far off the UK, past few runs that trough digging down has slowed thus getting more interaction. Last night 0z had almost none and we have ticked SE since. It was evident at 48-54 hours it was getting left behind. Would think we will see model agreement at 0z tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 I'm assuming this means the gefs, will have shifted south as well? Guess we will see in a bit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 On 1/2/2017 at 10:45 PM, msuwx said: The lean toward the Euro was seen in the interaction between the vort max and the northern branch in my opinion. Expand Agree, and was evident within the first 48 hrs of the run. Not saying we're ending up like the Euro but it took a small step or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 On 1/2/2017 at 10:49 PM, Wow said: Agree, and was evident within the first 48 hrs of the run. Not saying we're ending up like the Euro but it took a small step or two. Expand Its got to cave soon...which one is the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Atlanta hasn't had this kind of fantasy snow show up for multiple runs in what seems like years. This one is starting to drag me in even down here. A winter storm is coming just a matter of who gets hit and who doesn't st this point. Love the possibilities, it's what make this hobby so awesome IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 On 1/2/2017 at 10:51 PM, packbacker said: Its got to cave soon...which one is the question. Expand Looks like the GFS is taking a step towards the euro. We may not even have a storm by this time tomorrow. I mean we could go into suppression city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 On 1/2/2017 at 10:52 PM, J.C. said: If the GFS is so wrong after being so consistent with its operational runs, why is it even used for anything? It has to be on to something. Expand The exact same thing could be said about the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 I would have no problem with the models coming to consensus on a relatively light event with a gulf tracking low on tonights runs. That still leaves 4 and half days for the inevitable wetter/northwest trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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