Benholio Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 5 minutes ago, LovingGulfLows said: I just looked and at hour 108 and it shows Atlanta just slightly above freezing, then warms up during the event at hour 114 to around 34 or 35. Really odd....I just don't think with a low that far south, surface temps would be a problem to be honest. 3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Yeah, it's probably assuming diurnal heating which just doesn't happen during a snow event. Why would the 0z assume diurnal heating and the 18z wouldn't? I'm not trying to be antagonistic, just trying to understand the temperature differences. I would have expected a further south/weaker low to be better for surface temps in NGA, not worse. There does seem to be a missing high during this time period that was there on the 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, griteater said: Everyone knows that Wondering if that is Wilkes. wouldnt it just be like the GFS to completely give up its solution only for every other model to adopt it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Plus the gfs 0z drops the left over energy that doesn't get sheared out the deepest in the gom. Bet the ukie and para, cmc aren't as deep therefore shortening the seperation gap and allowing more ns energy to get involved setting off fireworks. Told u the ukie will sniff out a phase long before any other model. It's the master at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Just now, Wow said: GFS Parallel really is any interesting run since it keeps the wave intact looking very close to the 18z operational gfs but also partially phases and brings the low up to Hatteras like the UKMET Looking at the intermediate UK anomaly plots of the UK...at 72 it leaves a strong piece of the ULL behind, but is dragging it along, at 84 that piece is digging west and then at 96-108 it starts to interact with the low over the lakes. It is similar to the 18z para. When looking at the Euro today...at 108 there is a weak piece of energy that is lagging behind...if that was stronger and a little quicker it would be UK/para possibly. Of course, total hot dog wishcast moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Just now, Benholio said: Why would the 0z assume diurnal heating and the 18z wouldn't? I'm not trying to be antagonistic, just trying to understand the temperature differences. I would have expected a further south/weaker low to be better for surface temps in NGA, not worse. There does seem to be a missing high during this time period that was there on the 18z. Temps rise to 32/33 in Atlanta at 1pm on Saturday because the precip is over and the cloud deck is thinning out. Take a look to your South and East where it's still coming down... Surface temp of 29 around Augusta at that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 5 minutes ago, griteater said: It is, but thinking 00z Para would trend weaker given the overall GFS trends, but who knows Flip side with ukie trends you'd think euro would be moving tonight as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AshevilleCityWx Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 3 minutes ago, Coach McGuirk said: I think SE VA is in great position. It is that area has been highlighted including central VA with comparable odds that are currently in the bull's-eye in the far south. Bares watching for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 1 minute ago, NCSNOW said: Flip side with ukie trends you'd think euro would be moving tonight as well. NAM and UKMET are our precursor runs which usually give you an idea of the next move for the GFS and Euro. It's been a pretty good indicator so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 I'll take it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Just now, odell.moton said: What time does euro start dancing and who all is staying up Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk 1250 or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 GEFS mean looks pretty similar to the Op run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 GEFS pretty large shift to the SE with the precip, close to the operational Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Ah, so here's why the UKMET has stronger storm... It left a piece of the wave. Very close to the 0z gfs. Weak, but enough to keep it separate from the northern stream until phasing in the SE at 72 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 GFS and UKMet compare at 72, 96, and 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 GEFS was a little north of the Op and the GEPS was a little weaker then the CMC Op but stronger then it's 0z run. GEFS snowfall mean...lighter then previous runs but still not bad. 18z left and 0z right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 7 minutes ago, packbacker said: Looking at the intermediate UK anomaly plots of the UK...at 72 it leaves a strong piece of the ULL behind, but is dragging it along, at 84 that piece is digging west and then at 96-108 it starts to interact with the low over the lakes. It is similar to the 18z para. When looking at the Euro today...at 108 there is a weak piece of energy that is lagging behind...if that was stronger and a little quicker it would be UK/para possibly. Of course, total hot dog wishcast moment. Great info. Maybe we've been so focused on the wave survive pac nw fully intact, when really all we need is a slug of energy to make it 30 more hours down the road for better opportunity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 4 minutes ago, Wow said: Ah, so here's why the UKMET has stronger storm... It left a piece of the wave. Weak, but enough to keep it separate from the northern stream until phasing in the SE at 72 hrs Yep, and it did that with its 12z run as well, it just wasn't as sharp with the trough when it got to the southeast on the 12z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 13 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: Wondering if that is Wilkes. I'm beginning to as well. That would not be good for him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 8 minutes ago, griteater said: GFS and UKMet compare at 72, 96, and 120 Way more energy girating around the 50/50 low on ukmet. Almost looks like a minature pv Splitting hairs but 50/50 is stronger earlier on on the ukie by 15 to 20 mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Just that little bit on the backside of the weak southern low was what juiced the GEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 40 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: Wondering if that is Wilkes. It ...BEARS watching. Confidence increasing. Possible Winter Storm 1/6 - 1/8 AshevilleCityWx replied to StoneColdWeatherAustin's topic in Southeastern States ...Bares watching for sure. 11 minutes ago 1,287 replies Sweet '16 Mid-Long Range Discussion NWNC2015 replied to NWNC2015's topic in Southeastern States ...Bares watching for the climo areas of north-east Georgia, NC mountains, northern NC foothills, VA border counties, et cetera. Need it colder. November 27, 2016 2,109 replies 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season General Discussion NWNC2015 replied to Solak's topic in Southeastern States hour 240 south-east Floridabares watching October 13, 2016 719 replies Matthew NWNC2015 replied to NWNC2015's topic in Southeastern States ...only placebares watching is the OBX. don't see much support now for inland track for eastern NC or points south down the east coast. October 3, 2016 2,136 replies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Yeah Pack, we still have 2 camps right now... GFS/UKMet are giving some separation between the streams which brings some high pressure east in damming position before the storm arrival, so they are colder CMC doesn't have the stream separation. It ends up working out for many areas this run, but it's a more risky play temps wise. Euro has been in this camp as well, but was simply more squashed and weaker than tonight's CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Gotta do it... the 18z gfs parallel snow fun map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Thanks wow. So much more better graphics than pivotal. We've had our share of clown maps this past week. None better than that 12z gfs though. 30+, looked like Sierra Nevada today. I'd love to see a ukmet clown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 3 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: that measured in potential snowfall or accumulation? total accum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 9 minutes ago, Wow said: Gotta do it... the 18z gfs parallel snow fun map It only gives me ten inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Just now, lilj4425 said: It only gives me ten inches. Oh look...... it's the bouncing blue turd dude.... Where have you been man. You missed all the fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 1 minute ago, lilj4425 said: It only gives me ten inches. Widespread foot of snow in North GA. That's hilarious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 1 minute ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said: Oh look...... it's the bouncing blue turd dude.... Where have you been man. You missed all the fun. I have returned to bring the mojo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 1 minute ago, FirstTimeCaller said: Do we want the Euro to trend towards the UKmet with the weaker piece of energy left behind converging with the low coming down out of the Great Lakes? Or am I just completely lost. Yeah I'm lost I think that keeping the energy in the NW from interacting with the NS is all but over. Our best hope is that the wave stays as strong as possible and gets to the western gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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