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Severe Weather Risk January 2-3


MattPetrulli

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Seems like recent model runs of GFS and NAM have been painting a picture for severe wx along the Gulf Coast early Monday into Tuesday. The latest NAM and GFS run (18z) has just made the setup much more interesting with sufficient shear and cape for severe weather. Really should be watched as the New Year rolls around.

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  On 12/31/2016 at 9:06 PM, monsoonman1 said:

4km NAM looks potent for Central MS and SE LA Tuesday afternoon into evening. Surprised more aren't talking about this.

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I started a thread a few days ago in the TN valley forum but at the time I didn't know what sub forum to start it in since it could overlap small parts of 3 sub forums..there's discussion about it in the central/western forum for texas but in a hodgepodge thread

 

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  On 12/31/2016 at 9:06 PM, monsoonman1 said:

4km NAM looks potent for Central MS and SE LA Tuesday afternoon into evening. Surprised more aren't talking about this.

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This is going to be a sneaky severe threat. One that probably won't be pinpointed exactly until like 2 or 3 hours before the event starts. 4km NAM is looking quite concerning for how much CAPE there is going into a January severe event. 

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  On 12/31/2016 at 10:14 PM, janetjanet998 said:

I started a thread a few days ago in the TN valley forum but at the time I didn't know what sub forum to start it in since it could overlap small parts of 3 sub forums..there's discussion about it in the central/western forum for texas but in a hodgepodge thread

 

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Yeah I wasn't sure where to start this so I just figured the more widespread threat would be over LA/MS. This will probably take up 2 or 3 sub forums. 

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