Severe weather threat Monday Jan 2ndish

[janetjanet998]

It may over lap several sub forum regions but models seem to be centered on the mid south at this time. It may be a good idea to use this as the main severe weather thread then?

 

 Euro stronger and more north with the low but GFS also shows a strong system

 

some early discussions from Thursday dec 29th am...

MEM

RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGH EACH DAY THROUGH THE  
NEW YEAR HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH A FOCUS FOR SEVERE WEATHER  
DEVELOPING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WINDOW HAS BEEN CAPTURED  
IN THE EXTENDED CIPS ANALOG DATABASE WITH A PAST THREAT OF ALL  
MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE SHOWING CURVED  
HODOGRAPHS...6.5C TO 7C LAPSE RATES...AND CAPE AMOUNTS APPROACHING  
A 1000 J/KG. BOTH MODELS TRIGGER A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW IN THE  
OZARKS/ARLATEX...WITH A TRACK TO THE OHIO VALLEY. SO PLAN ON  
INTRODUCING A SEVERE RISK IN THE MORNING HWO.

 

Jackson MS
THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON MONDAY  
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS. BOTH MODELS INDICATE THAT  
DEWPOINTS WILL CLIMB UP INTO THE MID 60S WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY  
AND 45-50KTS OF H850 FLOW. THE GEM HAS ALSO COME ON BOARD WITH  
SIMILAR SEVERE PARAMETERS. THERE ARE LIMITING FACTORS WITH REGARD  
TO HEIGHT FALLS, FORCING AND ALSO THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF  
COASTAL CONVECTION CUTTING OFF THE MOIST FLOW. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY  
INTRODUCTION INTO THE HWO FOR THE TIME BEING, BUT THIS POTENTIAL  
WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

HUNTSVILLE AL

IN ADDITION, WIND SHEAR WITH THE LATEST MODEL  
OUTPUT SHOWS INCREASED BULK SHEAR OF 30-50 KTS (0-3KM) AND LOW-LEVEL  
SRH VALUES BETWEEN 300-600 M2/S2. COUPLE THIS WIND SHEAR WITH MODEST  
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS (MUCAPE) BETWEEN 200-500 J/KG AND SHERB  
VALUES OF 1-1.2, A HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT COULD BE  
POSSIBLE. A VEERING SOUNDING PROFILE IS ALSO PRESENT IN THE FORECAST  
SOUNDINGS WHICH COULD ALSO MEAN DISCRETE CELLS AHEAD OF ANY  
POTENTIAL QLCS. THOUGH CURRENT TIMING SHOWS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING AS THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL TIME FRAMES, HAVE BEEN SEEING A  
SLOWER MODELS TREND WITH THIS SCENARIO OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. EVEN  
WITH THE POSSIBLE TIMING CHANGE, WILL HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR  
SEVERE WEATHER ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS  
THE PRIMARY THREAT. TORNADOES ALSO LOOK POSSIBLE GIVEN THE LOW-LEVEL  
WIND SHEAR PROFILE,

SPC

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK    
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0305 AM CST THU DEC 29 2016  
  
VALID 011200Z - 061200Z  
   
..DISCUSSION  
  
SOME SEVERE-THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL EXIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE  
SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST STATES -- PERHAPS ALSO ACROSS AREAS FARTHER  
NORTH -- FROM THE LATTER PART OF THE UPCOMING NEW YEAR'S WEEKEND  
INTO NEXT WEEK. AS LARGE-SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED  
OVER A LARGE PART OF THE CONTIGUOUS U.S., POLEWARD FLUXES OF  
MARITIME-TROPICAL AIR COULD EXTEND INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND  
SOUTHEAST STATES -- AND PERHAPS INTO LOCATIONS FARTHER NORTH. ASCENT  
ACCOMPANYING WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER-SCALE FLOW MAY COMBINE  
WITH THIS MOISTURE AND RELATED BUOYANCY IN SUPPORT OF THE  
AFOREMENTIONED SEVERE RISK. OVERALL, VARIATIONS AMONG  
DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING DEVELOPMENTS WITHIN  
THIS PATTERN -- WHICH COULD SUPPORT/DETER THE SEVERE RISK -- ARE TOO  
SUBSTANTIAL FOR THE INTRODUCTION OF PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.  
  
FOR LATE DAY-4/SUNDAY INTO DAY-5/MONDAY, A MORE PROMINENT WAVE COULD  
INTERACT WITH MORE APPRECIABLE MOISTURE/BUOYANCY FROM PARTS OF EAST  
TEXAS TOWARD THE LOWER MS AND TN VALLEY REGION (AND PERHAPS AREAS  
FARTHER NORTH). THIS COULD SUPPORT SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL. HOWEVER,  
THE RELATIVELY SMALL WAVELENGTH AND AMPLITUDE OF THIS DISTURBANCE,  
AND LIMITED PREDICTABILITY INHERENT TO SUCH A MESOSCALE-SIZED  
SYSTEM, LIMIT CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING/LOCATION/MAGNITUDE OF THE  
SEVERE RISK. FURTHERMORE, MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY WITH REGARD TO THE  
SPATIAL EXTENT OF OVERLAP BETWEEN WAVE-RELATED ASCENT AND HIGHER  
BOUNDARY-LAYER THETA-E. THIS FACTOR CASTS DOUBT ON THE  
LOCATION/SPATIAL EXTENT OF SEVERE POTENTIAL. ADDITIONALLY,  
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION NEAR THE WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF COAST COULD  
RESTRICT THE SPATIAL EXTENT AND MAGNITUDE OF INLAND BUOYANCY,  
POTENTIALLY REDUCING THE OVERALL SEVERE RISK.  
  

 

[nrgjeff]

Monday is the most interesting forecast attm, partly because it is not as far out as the winter stuff. 

First of all, to get severe wx in the Mid South the Gulf Coast should be free of MCS slop. The wind fields would support severe in the Mid South if the Gulf Coast is unfettered. Forecast wind fields include plenty of speed shear and backed low level flow. Dews are shown rallying toward 65 deg F. Surface forecast will be important too, but it remains complex due to multiple waves ejecting. 

Euro 00Z showed ice in the Valley late next week which I find totally unacceptable; so, look for me in the severe thread. 

[jaxjagman]

Nice.The 2nd top analog.Jan storm of 1997,even a F-4 in Murfreesboro

 

[janetjanet998]

This may start over eastern Texas late Sunday then expand northeast into Tuesday rather wide warm sector for this time of year 

[janetjanet998]

MCS mentioned that may cut off moisture further north....

 

 

DAY 3

.SUMMARY  
  
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE WESTERN INTO  
CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES.  
   
..SYNOPSIS  
  
A BLOCKING MID/UPPER HIGH, CENTERED NEAR THE GULF OF ALASKA, APPEARS  
LIKELY TO REMAIN PROMINENT THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  DOWNSTREAM  
TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. MAY UNDERGO CONSIDERABLE  
DEFORMATION, WITH AT LEAST ONE SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE FORECAST TO  
EMERGE FROM IT, AND ACCELERATE EAST NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE UPPER  
GREAT LAKES REGION.    
  
IN LOWER LATITUDES, SUBTROPICAL RIDGING MAY ELONGATE EAST TO WEST,  
WITH ITS CENTER OF HIGHEST HEIGHTS SHIFTING FROM THE CARIBBEAN INTO  
SOUTHERN MEXICO.  ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE, INTO  
LARGER-SCALE RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S., MODELS GENERALLY  
INDICATE SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING OF A REMNANT IMPULSE ACCELERATING  
EAST NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  
  
IN LOWER LEVELS, WHILE A SIGNIFICANT COLD INTRUSION PROGRESSES TO  
THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, PRIMARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT  
APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE GULF COAST REGION, FROM  
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT  
LAKES REGION.  HOWEVER, IT APPEARS THAT A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW  
COULD ACCOMPANY THE SOUTHERN MID-LEVEL IMPULSE, REDEVELOPING  
EASTWARD/NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF TEXAS.    
  
WHILE A MOIST RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO MAY SUPPORT  
SUBSTANTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION INLAND OF NORTHWESTERN  
AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF COASTAL AREAS BY 12Z MONDAY, GUIDANCE IS  
SUGGESTIVE THAT THIS AIR MASS MAY BE OVERTURNED, AND RETURN FLOW  
CUT-OFF, IN THE WAKE OF CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED  
TO SPREAD OUT OF TEXAS EARLY IN THE PERIOD.  IT IS POSSIBLE, THOUGH,  
THAT AN APPRECIABLE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER MAY CONTINUE ACROSS THE  
CENTRAL GULF STATES THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.  
   
..WESTERN INTO CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES  
  
VARIABILITY EXISTS AMONG THE MODEL OUTPUT CONCERNING JUST HOW FAST  
FORCING FOR ASCENT, ASSOCIATED WITH THE IMPULSE EMERGING FROM THE  
SOUTHERN PLAINS, WILL BECOME DISPLACED FROM THE STRONGER BOUNDARY  
LAYER INSTABILITY AND WEAKEN DURING THE DAY MONDAY.  HOWEVER, AN  
ORGANIZED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MAY BE ONGOING AT 12Z MONDAY  
ACROSS PARTS OF EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS.  AIDED BY A CONTINUING INFLOW  
OF WEAK TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR (PROBABLY CHARACTERIZED BY CAPE  
IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG), IN THE PRESENCE OF SUFFICIENTLY STRONG DEEP  
LAYER SHEAR, IT APPEARS POSSIBLE THAT ACTIVITY COULD MAINTAIN  
SIGNIFICANT STRENGTH THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY, BEFORE  
OVERTURNING THE BETTER BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY AND CUTTING OF THE  
RICHER RETURN FLOW.    
  
UNTIL CONVECTION WEAKENS, IT MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE RISK FOR  
POTENTIALLY DAMAGING SURFACE GUSTS.  CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL  
HODOGRAPHS MAY ALSO BE LARGE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR  
TORNADOES, PARTICULARLY WITH ANY DISCRETE STORMS WHICH MAY FORM NEAR  
OR JUST AHEAD OF THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM AS IT SPREADS ACROSS THE  
CENTRAL GULF STATES/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

DAY 3

MOST GUIDANCE DOES APPEAR TO INDICATE THAT WEAK TO MODERATE BOUNDARY  
LAYER DESTABILIZATION WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND  
SOUTHEAST TEXAS BY SUNDAY NIGHT, WHERE/WHEN CAPE MAY INCREASE ABOVE  
1000 J/KG.  IT APPEARS THAT THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH STRENGTHENING OF  
LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW, INCLUDE SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW ON THE  
ORDER OF 40-50 KT, AND WEST SOUTHWESTERLY 700-500 MB FLOW ON THE  
ORDER OF 50-70 KT.  THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE CONDUCIVE TO  
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT, PERHAPS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS.  
  
STORMS COULD INITIATE BY MID TO LATE EVENING, AS FAR WEST AS THE  
PECOS VALLEY, IN RESPONSE TO FORCING WITH THE MID-LEVEL IMPULSE.   
ADDITIONAL STORMS COULD INITIATE ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND  
SOUTHEAST TEXAS IN RESPONSE TO LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION, BUT  
CONVECTION EMERGING FROM WEST TEXAS WITH THE MID/UPPER FORCING MAY  
EVENTUALLY BECOME MOST PROMINENT SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT ENCOUNTERS  
INCREASING INSTABILITY ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS.  THE EVOLUTION OF AN  
UPSCALE GROWING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE  
QUESTION.  THIS MAY EVENTUALLY BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING  
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG SURFACE GUSTS, WITH LARGE HAIL PROBABLY THE  
PRIMARY GENERAL SEVERE THREAT WITH INITIAL VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM  
DEVELOPMENT.  

 

DAY 3

 

[janetjanet998]

12z and 18z model data seems to be trending slightly more bullish but south and slower with this event

 

[janetjanet998]

Dallas

UR CONFIDENCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER HAS INCREASED, ESPECIALLY ALONG  
AND SOUTH OF THE I-20/I-30 CORRIDORS. THESE AREAS WILL HAVE THE  
RICHEST DEW POINTS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES,  
WHERE SBCAPE VALUES 1000-2000 J/KG WILL EXIST WITH ELEVATED LAPSE  
RATES APPROACHING 7-8 DEG C/KM. THROW IN SOUTHWESTERLY 0-6KM BULK  
SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 40-50 KNOTS AND WE'RE LOOKING AT A SET UP  
FOR SEVERE STORMS, MOST LIKELY IN THE FORM OF A QLCS MOVING  
READILY EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THOUGH SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE  
HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND POSSIBLY A BOOK-END VORTEX TYPE OF  
TORNADO OR TWO, THE BEST THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE FROM  
D/FW SOUTH WHERE THE BETTER INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE FOR DEEPER  
AND STRONGER UPDRAFTS. THE CURRENT SLIGHT RISK AREA LOOKS SITUATED  
IN THE APPROPRIATE AREA AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED PARTS OF  
CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS ARE PUT IN A HIGHER CATEGORY IF  
MODEL TRACK AND TRENDS CONTINUE ON ALL THESE PARAMETERS.

 

Jackson Ms

 EXPECT MOST OF THE CONVECTION TO BE  
CONFINED TO ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED QLCS. WITH ENOUGH  
VERTICAL LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY (ML/MUCAPES), ABOVE 1000 J/KG  
AREAWIDE (WHICH IS ANOMALOUS FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR) AND ENOUGH  
LOW-MID LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR, SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES TO LOOK  
POSSIBLE. DUE TO THE ORTHOGONAL ORIENTATION OF THE 0-3KM BULK SHEAR,  
BASED ON THE EURO, A QLCS WITH BOWING SEGMENTS IS POSSIBLE. ANY  
PREFRONTAL STORMS IN THE MID- AFTERNOON COULD BE CONCERNING, WITH  
SUCH LOW LEVEL TURNING HODOGRAPHS, THIS WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF  
TORNADOES. FOR NOW, ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE POSSIBLE,

[janetjanet998]

18z NAM 4K is particularly bullish..(assuming convection doesn't mess up moisture return)

with STP of 5+ from mid TN to the gulf coast with pockets up to 8

 

 

[janetjanet998]

KBMX

 TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COLD ALOFT, LEADING TO  
MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY IF MID TO UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS MOVE  
INTO THE AREA. A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LOOKS  
LIKELY IF (AND THIS IS A BIG IF) GULF CONVECTION DOES NOT DISRUPT  
THE WIND FIELDS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE  
500MB SHORTWAVE TO THE GULF COAST AND THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A  
300MB JET OVER THE CENTRAL GULF ARE BOTH FACTORS IN FAVOR OF  
COASTAL CONVECTION. HOWEVER, THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE  
INLAND BY 12Z MONDAY WHICH ARGUES AGAINST THE IDEA OF WIDESPREAD  
COASTAL CONVECTION. IF THE WARM SECTOR REMAINS LARGELY  
UNCONTAMINATED, MODERATE AMOUNTS OF SHEAR AND CAPE WOULD PROBABLY  
YIELD AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES AHEAD  
OF A QLCS. IT SEEMS UNLIKELY THAT OUR LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE WILL  
GET MUCH HIGHER UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING, BUT THERE  
APPEARS TO BE TWO DISTINCT AND OPPOSITE POSSIBLE OUTCOMES. A LOW  
CONFIDENCE THREAT WILL BE MAINTAINED IN THE HWO.

[jaxjagman]

Models seem to be better agreement where that shortwave will be,Kinda like Central MS  in our area right now,though no one post here from there..lol

[jaxjagman]

 

 

1990 outbreak on Cips,seems like the shortwave the models agree on finally,top anaog

 

 

 

 

 

 

[janetjanet998]

SPC targeting late tonight Tornado potential increasing 

 

DAY 1

..CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS  
  
A WARM FRONT WILL ADVANCE NORTH, REACHING THE SOUTHERN  
OKLAHOMA/TEXAS BORDER BY 12Z MONDAY, AND EXTENDING EAST INTO  
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES.  LOW-LEVEL  
MOISTENING IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS MUCH OF  
THE WARM SECTOR WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S  
ADVECTING NORTH THROUGH MUCH OF SOUTHERN TO EAST TEXAS AND THE LOWER  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  THE LACK OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING THROUGH THE  
FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THE EASTWARD-ADVANCING PLUME  
OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD EFFECTIVELY CAP MUCH OF THE  
WARM SECTOR UNTIL 00-03Z.  
  
MODELS SUGGEST ELEVATED CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP ACROSS FAR WEST  
TEXAS AND ADJACENT SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO BY EARLY EVENING AS FORCING  
FOR ASCENT WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH REACHES THIS AREA.   
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND NORTH-SOUTH  
EXTENSION THROUGH LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, AS THE STRONG FORCING  
FOR ASCENT AND HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD INTO CENTRAL TEXAS, REACHING  
GREATER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY.  HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY  
THREAT WITH INITIAL STORMS, WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS BECOMING AN  
INCREASING THREAT AS STORMS REACH CENTRAL TEXAS WHERE ACTIVITY MAY  
BECOME SURFACE BASED.  POTENTIALLY CONCURRENT WITH THE DAMAGING WIND  
THREAT WILL BE AN INCREASE IN THE TORNADO POTENTIAL, ESPECIALLY  
ALONG THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AS LOW-LEVEL  
HODOGRAPH CURVATURE INCREASES.  IN ADDITION TO STORMS DEVELOPING AND  
SPREADING EAST ALONG THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT, STORM DEVELOPMENT  
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR TONIGHT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE  
ALL SEVERE HAZARDS.  
   
..SOUTHERN LOUISIANA TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION  
  
A MOIST WARM SECTOR IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD FARTHER INLAND TODAY,  
WHILE CLOUDINESS SHOULD TEND TO INHIBIT SURFACE HEATING, RESULTING  
IN WEAK DESTABILIZATION.  SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE  
ONGOING ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AT 12Z  
TODAY, WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS POSSIBLE AS A COUPLE OF WEAK MIDLEVEL  
IMPULSES TRACK EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THIS REGION.  PRIOR TO  
LOW-LEVEL WINDS WEAKENING LATER TODAY, DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-MID  
LEVEL WINDS OF 30-40 KT SHOULD PROVE FAVORABLE IN SUPPORTING SOME  
STORM ORGANIZATION.  LOW SEVERE WIND AND TORNADO PROBABILITIES ARE  
FORECAST ACROSS THIS REGION, MAINLY FROM THIS MORNING INTO THE  
AFTERNOON.  

[janetjanet998]

DAY 2 rather Bullish

AY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK    
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1225 AM CST SUN JAN 01 2017  
  
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z  
  
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO  
MONDAY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN LOUISIANA...CENTRAL AND  
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND MUCH OF WESTERN ALABAMA...  
  
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SURROUNDING  
AREAS OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF STATES...  
  
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ADJACENT  
PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH AND LOWER OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS...  
   

.LOWER PLAINS TO APPALACHIANS  
  
SUBSTANTIVE LOW/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN, AND AT LEAST WEAK  
DESTABILIZATION, APPEARS POSSIBLE AS FAR NORTH AS THE MIDDLE  
MISSISSIPPI/OHIO VALLEYS AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES  
REGION.  HOWEVER, MUCH OF THIS MAY OCCUR ABOVE A RESIDUAL  
COOL/STABLE NEAR SURFACE LAYER WITH LITTLE APPRECIABLE SEVERE  
WEATHER POTENTIAL CURRENTLY EVIDENT.  RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING,  
AND SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION, PROBABLY WILL REMAIN  
CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF STATES, WITH  
RETURN TO AREAS FARTHER NORTH IMPEDED, AT LEAST IN PART, BY  
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE EMERGING FROM  
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND DOWNSTREAM WARM ADVECTION.  
  
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ACROSS  
MUCH OF THE WESTERN INTO CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES, PERHAPS AREAS AS  
FAR NORTH AS THE MID SOUTH, WILL BECOME CHARACTERIZED BY MODESTLY  
STEEP LOWER/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CAPE OF 500-1000+ J/KG.   
HIGHER CAPE IS EXPECTED TO BE FOCUSED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN  
PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI INTO ALABAMA, WHERE SURFACE  
DEW POINTS LIKELY WILL REACH OR EXCEED THE MID 60S F.  
  
DUE TO LINGERING VARIABILITY AMONG THE MODEL OUTPUT, AMONG OTHER  
ISSUES, THE POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT  
REMAINS UNCLEAR.  HOWEVER, GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE POTENTIAL  
INSTABILITY, THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE CONDUCIVE TO SEVERE STORM  
DEVELOPMENT.  MODELS ARE SUGGESTIVE THAT SOUTHERN SHORT WAVE IMPULSE  
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY CONSIDERABLE STRENGTHENING OF LOWER/MID  
TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELDS, INCLUDING SOUTHERLY 40-50 KT FLOW AROUND  
850 MB, VEERING TO WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY AT 50-70 KT AROUND 700 MB.   
THIS SHOULD PROVIDE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER  
SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTION, INCLUDING SUPERCELLS.  
  
FURTHERMORE, GUIDANCE NOW SEEMS SUGGESTIVE THAT FORCING FOR ASCENT  
MAY REMAIN SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN VIGOROUS STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH  
THE DAY MONDAY, INTO AT LEAST MONDAY EVENING, SPREADING ACROSS MUCH  
OF LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI INTO ALABAMA. THIS WILL PARTIALLY BE  
DRIVEN BY LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION, WHICH MAY SUPPORT OR  
MAINTAIN A PROGRESSIVE ORGANIZED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WITH  
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING SURFACE GUSTS.  SIZABLE CLOCKWISE CURVED  
LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS APPEAR LIKELY TO SUPPORT A RISK FOR TORNADOES  
AS WELL, PARTICULARLY IN DISCRETE CELLS PRECEDING ANY EVOLVING  
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM.  A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE  
QUESTION.  
  

[MattPetrulli]

This looks like it could be significant for the gulf coast with several tornadoes if the projected CAPE from the models comes into fruition. Just don't really see 2000 CAPE in January. 

[Jim Martin]

The 06z 4km NAM is the third run in succession that a very active severe weather day is possible on Monday across Mississippi in general.

[janetjanet998]

New day 1

SUMMARY  
  
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS  
PARTS OF THE GULF COAST REGION.  MEANWHILE, A GREATER SEVERE-WEATHER  
THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF TEXAS BY LATE THIS  
EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY.  
   
..TEXAS AND ADJACENT OK/ARKLATEX REGION TONIGHT  
  
A COMPACT UPPER JET/RELATED JET STREAK OVER BAJA MEXICO AND THE  
LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE  
STEADILY EASTWARD, REACHING SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS THIS  
EVENING, AND PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS BY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY  
MONDAY. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS WILL  
DEVELOP NORTHWARD IN TANDEM WITH A WARM FRONT, WITH LOWER/SOME  
MIDDLE 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY  
PREVALENT THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS  
SOUTH-CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS.   
  
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF APPRECIATE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IN  
CONJUNCTION WITH AN INCREASINGLY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS, STORMS  
SHOULD STEADILY INCREASE/SPREAD EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF  
CENTRAL TEXAS LATE TONIGHT (MAINLY AFTER 06Z OR LOCAL MIDNIGHT). IN  
AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND  
40+ KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR, HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE  
WITH THE INITIAL STORMS. A TORNADO RISK MAY INCREASE THROUGH THE  
EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL TEXAS AND POSSIBLY THE UPPER  
TEXAS COAST AS MOIST CONFLUENT LOW-LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS.  
   
..GULF COAST STATES FROM LA TO FL PANHANDLE  
  
BANDS OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST TODAY  
ACROSS THE REGION AS MULTIPLE LOW-AMPLITUDE IMPULSES CROSS THE  
REGION. WHILE CLOUDS MAY REMAIN SEMI-PREVALENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE  
REGION, SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION/VERTICAL SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR SOME  
STRONG/LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS INTO THE AFTERNOON.  

[MattPetrulli]

New Day 1 expands 5% risk slightly to SE.

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1024 AM CST Sun Jan 01 2017

   Valid 011630Z - 021200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS
   CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT
   FROM WEST TEXAS TO THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible today
   across parts of the Gulf Coast region.  Meanwhile, a greater
   severe-weather threat is expected to develop across portions of
   Texas by late this evening and continuing into Monday morning.

   ...Synopsis...
   A deep mid-upper trough over the Pacific Northwest will drift slowly
   southward as part of a developing large-scale blocking pattern over
   the northeast Pacific and AK.  Downstream, a progressive shortwave
   trough over AZ will accelerate eastward to central TX by the end of
   the period.  Isolated lightning strikes will remain possible along
   the OR coast in the steep lapse rate environment with onshore flow,
   and clusters of thunderstorms will also persist today across
   southeast AZ and southern NM in association with the ejecting
   trough.  The primary risk for thunderstorms, some severe, will be
   tonight across TX.

   ...Southeast NM this evening into TX overnight...
   Ascent and moistening immediately downstream from the shortwave
   trough over AZ will contribute to an increasingly favorable
   environment for thunderstorm development late this afternoon/evening
   across southern NM and far west TX.  A cluster of storms will likely
   spread eastward through the evening, with the potential to produce
   isolated damaging gusts in an environment with weak buoyancy but
   sufficiently steep lapse rates.  Low-level moisture will return
   northward in earnest by tonight into central/east TX, beneath
   steepening midlevel lapse rates.  The convective cluster will likely
   expand and intensify early Monday while reaching the richer moisture
   and potentially moderate buoyancy (MUCAPE up to 2000 J/kg) across
   central TX, where the risk for damaging winds and large hail will
   increase.  More isolated storm development may also occur ahead of
   the primary cluster, within the moist axis from the Middle/Upper TX
   coast into east TX.  Vertical shear will be sufficient for
   supercells with the potential to produce a couple of tornadoes,
   especially with more discrete cells within or ahead of the primary
   cluster/MCS. 

   ...North central and northeast Gulf coast through tonight...
   Convection is ongoing near the coast in a weak warm advection regime
   along the north edge of the surface warm sector from southern LA to
   the FL Panhandle.  12z regional soundings suggest that midlevel
   lapse rates will remain modest over this area given somewhat
   widespread convection.  Vertical shear is also unlikely to increase
   much until very late in the period west of the MS River, given the
   late arrival of the shortwave trough in TX.  Thus, will maintain
   only low-end wind/tornado probabilities.

   ..Thompson/Marsh.. 01/01/2017

[janetjanet998]

New day2  

new big surprises

.SUMMARY  
  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN  
THROUGH CENTRAL GULF STATES INTO PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH,  
ACCOMPANIED BY THE RISK FOR POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A  
FEW TORNADOES.  
   
..EASTERN TX THROUGH THE GULF COAST STATES  
  
A WARM FRONT (PORTIONS OF WHICH WILL BE CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED)  
WILL LIKELY EXTEND FROM A WEAK SURFACE LOW IN NORTHEAST TX EWD  
THROUGH SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST STATES. IN RESPONSE TO  
EJECTING SOUTHERN-STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH THE SURFACE LOW WILL  
DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD, REACHING NORTHERN MS BY MONDAY EVENING, WHILE  
THE WARM FRONT WILL MAKE ONLY SLOW NORTHWARD PROGRESS. A COLD FRONT  
EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN TX AND THE  
LOWER MS VALLEY REGION DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES  
OVERNIGHT.  
  
PRIMARY COMPLICATING FACTOR/UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO THIS OUTLOOK  
IS THE EVOLUTION OF THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AND POTENTIAL FOR  
ONGOING CONVECTION. GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE FROM EASTERN TX  
INTO A PORTION OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY WHERE PLUME OF STEEPER LAPSE  
RATES WILL HAVE OVERSPREAD MOIST AXIS SOUTH OF WARM FRONT WHERE  
MLCAPE TO 1500 J/KG IS POSSIBLE. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND WEAKER LAPSE  
RATES WILL LIMIT MLCAPE TO AOB 1000 J/KG FARTHER EAST, WITH THE  
GREATER INSTABILITY EXPECTED SOUTH OF WARM FRONT OVER SOUTHERN  
PORTIONS OF GULF COASTAL STATES. A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO  
BE ONGOING ALONG COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN TX WHERE VERTICAL SHEAR  
AND INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STRUCTURES INCLUDING A FEW  
SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST INTO THE  
LOWER MS VALLEY. ANOTHER CORRIDOR OF SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED AS  
STORMS DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST STATES, ESPECIALLY ALONG WARM  
FRONT AND WARM SECTOR CONFLUENCE BANDS AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET  
STRENGTHENS. LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR  
WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES  
POSSIBLE. SEVERE THREAT BECOMES INCREASINGLY UNCERTAIN WITH  
NORTHWARD EXTENT INTO ALABAMA AND TENNESSEE DUE TO LIMITED POTENTIAL  
FOR BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION NORTH OF WARM FRONT.

[nrgjeff]

Could be interesting right on and south of the warm front. Looks like enough "other rain" to keep the immediate Tennessee Valley safe. Mississippi and Alabama stuff might not be that chasable even if it does materialize, typical Southern slop. Hopefully the Bowl games are more competitive...

[janetjanet998]

the mentioned complex now developing over the NM/TX state line with t-storm warnings with a gust of 67 MPH reported

 

models have a very messy situation tomorrow it will be a NOWCAST event

 

[janetjanet998]

 TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF   
  SOUTHERN ARKANSAS  
  LOUISIANA  
  EAST TEXAS  
  COASTAL WATERS  
  
* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 610 AM UNTIL  
  200 PM CST.  
  
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...  
  A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE  
  SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 75  
    MPH POSSIBLE  
  ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE  
  
SUMMARY...MULTIPLE BANDS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL  
STEADILY PROGRESS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING,  
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS INCREASING AHEAD OF  
MULTIPLE FAST-MOVING CONVECTIVE LINES AND CLUSTERS. DAMAGING WINDS  
WILL BE THE PRIMARY RISK, BUT A FEW TORNADOE

[janetjanet998]

AY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK    
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0700 AM CST MON JAN 02 2017  
  
VALID 021300Z - 031200Z  
  
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS  
OF LA/AR/MS/AL AND FL PANHANDLE...  
  
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF  
COAST STATES...  
  
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TX TO  
THE TN VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST STATES...  
   
..SUMMARY  
  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING  
FROM EAST TEXAS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES. ALL  
SEVERE HAZARDS WILL BE POSSIBLE INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS AND  
TORNADOES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI  
INTO SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.  
   
..EAST TEXAS/GULF COAST STATES AND TENNESSEE VALLEY  
  
A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL TX THIS MORNING WILL  
STEADILY SPREAD EASTWARD, REACHING THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY BY  
EARLY EVENING AND THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS VICINITY BY EARLY  
TUESDAY. A RELATED STRENGTHENING OF LOW/MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL OCCUR  
AHEAD OF THIS EASTWARD-ADVANCING IMPULSE, PARTICULARLY ACROSS EAST  
TX AND LA/MS EARLY TODAY, AND ACROSS AL/GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE THIS  
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS, AN INCREASINGLY MOIST  
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL EXIST ACROSS A BROAD PORTION OF THE REGION TO  
THE SOUTH OF A WARM FRONT THAT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY  
NORTHWARD ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-SOUTH AND TOWARD THE TN RIVER  
VALLEY, ALTHOUGH ONGOING EARLY-DAY CONVECTION ACROSS MS/AL MAY  
EFFECTIVELY REGULATE THE CORRIDOR OF PEAK DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION  
THIS AFTERNOON.  
  
INITIALLY, A BAND OF FAST-MOVING STORMS WITH A HISTORY OF  
SEVERE-CALIBER WIND GUSTS ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT ARE ONGOING  
(13Z) ACROSS MUCH OF EAST TEXAS, INCLUDING AN UPTICK IN A SOMEWHAT  
SEPARATE BAND OF STORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS OVER THE PAST FEW  
HOURS. A MIXED CONVECTIVE MODE WILL LIKELY BECOME INCREASING  
PREVALENT INTO THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED  
LINEAR CONVECTION RACES INTO LA AND SOUTHERN AR WITH A DAMAGING WIND  
RISK, WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF LINE-PRECEDING SEMI-DISCRETE  
STORMS/SUPERCELLS (CAPABLE OF A TORNADO RISK) ALSO INCREASING AS THE  
BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS/DESTABILIZES DURING THE DAY.  
  
FARTHER EAST, TO THE SOUTH OF EARLY-DAY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS  
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MS/AL, ADDITIONAL STORMS SHOULD ALSO INCREASE  
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST LA INTO THE SOUTHERN  
THIRDS OF MS/AL. STRENGTHENING/BACKING OF MID-LEVEL WINDS WOULD  
SUGGEST A MIXED CONVECTIVE MODE ACROSS THIS CORRIDOR, BUT  
INCREASINGLY LARGE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS SHOULD YIELD A TORNADO RISK,  
POTENTIALLY SEMI-FOCUSED NEAR/SOUTH OF WHAT MAY BE AN  
OUTFLOW/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING-RELATED EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT.  

[janetjanet998]

a couple of TOR warned cells now...messy but semi-discrete storms ahead 0f the main and also along the warm front more east

 

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK    
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1028 AM CST MON JAN 02 2017  
  
VALID 021630Z - 031200Z  
  
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER  
LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND  
NORTHWEST FLORIDA...  
  
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF  
COAST STATES AND TENNESSEE VALLEY...  
  
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER  
MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS INTO THE SOUTHEAST...  
   
..SUMMARY  
  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING  
FROM LOUISIANA ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES. ALL  
SEVERE HAZARDS WILL BE POSSIBLE INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS AND  
TORNADOES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI  
INTO SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.  
   
..GULF COAST STATES AND TENNESSEE VALLEY  
  
CONSIDERABLE STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS  
WESTERN LOUISIANA AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST TEXAS, IN ADVANCE OF A  
STRONG UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING EASTWARD OVER CENTRAL  
TEXAS.  EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CLUSTER IS A BOWING LINE SEGMENT THAT  
HAS BEEN PRODUCING OCCASIONAL WIND DAMAGE REPORTS THIS MORNING.  
  
ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE CONTINUING DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS ACTIVITY OVER  
EASTERN MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN/NORTHERN ALABAMA, IN ASSOCIATION  
WITH A WEAKER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH AND WITHIN A COUPLED UPPER-LEVEL JET  
STRUCTURE WHERE DIVERGENCE ALOFT IS MAXIMIZED.  THIS ACTIVITY IS  
RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER THAT WILL LIKELY LIMIT DIURNAL  
HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR.    
  
SURFACE ANALYSIS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE AN EAST-WEST  
COASTAL WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA INTO THE  
NORTHWEST FLORIDA, WITH RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /SURFACE DEW  
POINTS AROUND 70 DEGREES/ AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTH OF  
THE FRONT.  THIS BOUNDARY MAY LIFT FARTHER NORTH THIS AFTERNOON BUT  
SUBSTANTIAL PROGRESS INLAND WILL LIKELY BE IMPEDED BY ONGOING  
CONVECTION AND CLOUDS.   
  
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THE EASTWARD-MOVING QLCS OVER WESTERN  
LOUISIANA WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS  
AFTERNOON WITH A CONTINUING THREAT FOR PRIMARILY DAMAGING WIND  
GUSTS.  SEVERAL TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY WITH ANY  
EMBEDDED ROTATIONAL COUPLETS THAT MAY DEVELOP AND NEAR THE  
INTERSECTION OF THE ADVANCING QLCS AND THE WARM FRONT.  IN ADDITION,  
ANY PERSISTENT SEMI-DISCRETE CELLS DEVELOPING DOWNSTREAM FROM THE  
LINE MAY ALSO POSE A TORNADO THREAT GIVEN THE CLOCKWISE-TURNING  
LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS EVIDENT IN RECENT VAD PROFILES AT LCH, LIX, AND  
MOB RADARS.  
  
OTHER SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF THE  
TENNESSEE VALLEY WHERE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR MAY COMPENSATE FOR  
WEAKER INSTABILITY.  A FEW DAMAGING 

[janetjanet998]

ESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0009  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1017 AM CST MON JAN 02 2017  
  
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA THROUGH SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI  
  
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY   
  
VALID 021617Z - 021815Z  
  
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT  
  
SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND AND A FEW TORNADOES IS  
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA THROUGH SOUTHERN  
MISSISSIPPI INTO SOUTHWEST ALABAMA FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE  
AFTERNOON. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR THIS REGION BY  
17Z.  
  
DISCUSSION...THIS MORNING A COASTAL WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FL  
PANHANDLE THROUGH THE MS BOOT HEEL INTO SOUTHEAST AND WEST CENTRAL  
LOUISIANA WHERE IT INTERSECTS A PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE. WIDESPREAD  
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN A LIMITING FACTOR SO FAR FOR A MORE ROBUST SEVERE  
THREAT. HOWEVER, THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT IS  
DESTABILIZING, PRIMARILY DUE TO THETA-E ADVECTION, BUT SOME CLOUD  
BREAKS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON SUPPORTING MLCAPE FROM  
1000-1500 J/KG. THE SQUALL LINE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE EAST NEXT  
SEVERAL HOURS AS IT INTERCEPTS THE MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG  
AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. ADDITIONAL MORE DISCRETE STORMS WILL  
LIKELY CONTINUE DEVELOPING WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE BANDS  
WITHIN THE DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR. SOME STRENGTHENING OF BROAD  
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL OCCUR INTO THE AFTERNOON IN  
ASSOCIATION WITH FORCING FOR ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE PROGRESSIVE  
SOUTHERN-STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL MAINTAIN SUFFICIENTLY  
LARGE 0-2 KM HODOGRAPHS FOR A THREAT OF LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES AND A  
FEW TORNADOES, ESPECIALLY AS DISCRETE STORMS BECOME SURFACE-BASED  
AHEAD OF THE LINE. BRIEF QLCS TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WIND  
WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS WITHIN THE SQUALL LINE.  
  

[janetjanet998]

VERE WEATHER STATEMENT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA  
1104 AM CST MON JAN 2 2017  
  
LAC103-105-021730-  
/O.CON.KLIX.TO.W.0002.000000T0000Z-170102T1730Z/  
ST. TAMMANY LA-TANGIPAHOA LA-  
1104 AM CST MON JAN 2 2017  
  
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1130 AM CST FOR WEST  
CENTRAL ST. TAMMANY AND SOUTHEASTERN TANGIPAHOA PARISHES...  
          
AT 1104 AM CST, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED 7 MILES WEST OF  
MADISONVILLE, OR 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF COVINGTON, MOVING NORTH AT 25  
MPH.  
  
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.   
  
SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.   

[Chinook]

Possible tornado at Mt. Olive Mississippi - (20:20z). This is a strong velocity difference

[Chinook]

There has been a tornado reported near Mendenhall MS  (20:08z). Actually the northwest edge of the image I posted above would have been the tornado warning associated with that one in Mendenhall MS.

 

this is an ongoing storm with possible tornado near Orion, AL

[Chinook]

A tornado has been reported near Mt. Olive, MS (20:21z)- tornado happened 2 hrs ago.

[janetjanet998]

Couple of warning with confirmed tornadoes

[Chinook]

It seemed like there was pretty strong rotation near Union Springs AL and Benevolence GA. I'm not sure if any damage resulted. Note: Mobile general area has had 7-10" of rain since Dec. 31st, possibly even 11".